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A weekly reality check on sensible investing and financial decision-making, from two Canadians. Hosted by Benjamin Felix and Cameron Passmore, Portfolio Managers at PWL Capital.

Today, we take a closer look at asset allocation through an empirical lens, by drawing on the work and data of Scott Cederburg and his new article 'Beyond the Status Quo: A Critical Assessment of Lifecycle Investment Advice'. We unpack what the research tells us about how to establish the optimal mix of assets in a portfolio, the challenges of making the right decisions when you have volatile assets, and why it’s critical that you understand your level of risk tolerance.

Next, in our Mark to Market segment, we unpack different types of insurance — like life, disability, and critical illness — and when you should own them personally versus making them the property of your corporation.

We then review Justin King’s new book before sitting down with the author himself to discuss the content of his latest work and his long-held interest in helping others optimize for retirement. Tuning in you’ll hear Justin share his thoughts on the role of choice, vitality, and joy when it comes to having a successful retirement, the nine accelerators he lays out in his book, and how to become the hero of your retirement story.

In our final section, we wrap things up with some wonderful reviews from listeners and our book recommendations. To hear all of the captivating takeaways from today’s episode, be sure to tune in!

In this episode, we delve into the complexity of navigating life's challenges, taking risks, fostering self-confidence, and honing problem-solving skills. Joining us is Shane Parrish, a best-selling author, to help us unpack this nuanced topic through the lens of his new book, Clear Thinking. His latest publication is a roadmap for recognizing pivotal moments for clear thought and exposing how our defaults often drive us. He aims to empower readers to intervene, harness reasoning, and apply cognitive tools for better decision-making. Shane is also the founder of the website blog Farnam Street and the venture capitalist firm Syrus Partners.

In our conversation, we explore the steps to becoming a clear thinker and how the mantra can be applied to our daily lives. We discuss how ordinary moments influence our decisions, the definition of true goals, and how to build self-confidence. We also unpack the barriers that hinder clear thinking, the difference between playing on hard and playing on easy, the value of continual growth, and much more. Tune in and discover how to master risk, confidence, and problem-solving with Shane Parrish!

In this episode, we start by learning about the complex relationship between recessions and stock returns before welcoming Huston Loke and Jordan Solway from the Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) to discuss protecting consumers in the financial investment space. Huston is the Executive Vice President of Market Conduct, and Jordan is the Executive Vice President of Legal and Enforcement at FSRA. The FSRA supervises insurance companies, mortgage brokers, credit unions, pensions and other non-securities areas of the financial services sector. We discuss the objectives of the FSRA, their approach to protecting consumers, enforcement strategies, upcoming regulations, and more. Then, we welcome back Mark McGrath to learn about the Passive Investment Grind (PIG) concept for this week's Mark to Market segment, and we take a look back at a previous episode with Ted Seides of Capital Allocators. Finally, we are joined by author Tim Hale to discuss the new edition of his book Smarter Investing before closing off with our usual after-show roundup. Tune in now!

If you dive deep into financial advisor fixed effects, you’ll begin to understand that an advisor's own portfolio has a bigger impact on the portfolios of their clients than the characteristics of the clients themselves. To help us make sense of this and to further explain financial values and the cross-section of returns, we are joined by the influential and notorious Professor of Finance, Juhani Linnainmaa. Our conversation begins with a comprehensive analysis of financial values, including a comparison between the trading patterns of advisors and those of their clients, a disquisition of misguided beliefs, an examination of client characteristics, and the ins and outs of portfolio variation and customizations.

Canada recently adopted regulations from the Mutual Fund Dealers Association (MFDA), and we discuss how this has affected the use of financial advice in the country before comparing the benefit of increased equity share to the cost of advice, what hiring a new advisor before a financial crisis may mean for clients, and the role of regulation in the industry.

We end with the cross-section of returns by examining accounting-based anomalies pre-1963, how profitability and investment relate to data mining, why a financial firm would switch between growth and value, and finally, Professor Juhani Linnainmaa’s definition of success.

During this episode, Financial Advisor and Associate Portfolio Manager Phil Briggs joins us to discuss the ‘cash wedge’ financial strategy. He also shares his motivation for joining PWL Capital after kicking off his career in the banking industry. Next, Mark McGrath unpacks the four D’s of tax planning and how to implement them in your future planning. We review a much-loved past episode featuring Dr. William Bernstein and unpack the principles taught in Seth Godin’s latest book, The Song of Significance. During the aftershow, you’ll hear about our recent explorations in the world of infinite banking, Admired Leadership, and more. In closing, we share some of our favourite reviews from guests all over the world and offer a glimpse of what’s to come in upcoming conversations. Thanks for listening!

If you’re in the world of finance, you’d know today’s guest from YouTube — but you’ve probably never heard his real name. However, today and for the first time, he chooses to associate his actual identity with his YouTube channel! It’s an honour to introduce to you, Mr. How Money Works himself, Darin Soat. On his YouTube channel, Darin combines captivating storytelling with high-quality, sensible information that helps you to make better financial decisions. Today, he joins us to explain How Money Works, why he chose to create his channel anonymously, and how he feels after his grand reveal. He describes how his channel informed his career as an investment banker, and gives us his insider breakdown of how influencer businesses work.

Then, we dive deep into YouTube as we explore the problems with today’s financial influencers (finfluencers), how these problems are carried through to the crypto market, why it’s rare to find high-quality financial information on YouTube, and everything you need to know about the gamification of investing, creating passive income, and the ins and outs of investing from the perspective of one of YouTube’s top finfluencers, Darin Soat!

In this episode, we welcome back Hal Hershfield, Associate Professor of Marketing and Behavioral Decision Making at UCLA Anderson School of Management. Hal is renowned for his pioneering work in understanding how individuals make financial decisions, and he shares invaluable insights that can help us navigate the complexities of financial planning. In our conversation, live from Future Proof, we explore the intersection of behavioural economics, financial decision-making, and the potential for AI to enhance financial advisory services through the lens of Hal’s latest research findings. We explore framing insurance decisions, the impact of generative AI on financial choices, and the often-overlooked realm of end-of-life decisions. Discover why the key to success lies in understanding different consumer segments, how advisors can optimize the frequency of client meetings, and how clients and advisors should be working together. We also unpack the importance of personalized decisions, the value of a decision-making journal, the framework for making the right financial choice, and much more. Tune in to gain valuable insights into behavioural economics, consumer preferences, and the evolving financial planning landscape with Hal Hershfield!

In this episode, we are trying something different. Recorded live at the CFA Society’s Toronto Annual Wealth Conference, we take an exclusive look at the origins and evolution of the Rational Reminder Podcast through an interview with Ben and Cameron. From motivations for starting the podcast to favourite episodes and guests, we delve into the behind-the-scenes of the show. Discover how the podcast has grown, the impact it's had on listeners, and the exciting global reach it's achieved. Get an exclusive look at the challenges, regrets, and valuable lessons learned along the way.

Then, we are joined by Mark McGrath to explore common pitfalls of ITF accounts, providing listeners with valuable information to help them make the right decisions for their investments. Finally, we welcome special guest Brittany Hodak, author of Creating Superfans, which unpacks the concept of turning customers into passionate fans of your brand. Brittany shares her insights on the power of storytelling in business and how to create Superfans who will champion your brand. We explore the concept of the experience economy, the right approach to investing in marketing for your business, and much more!

Join us for this extraordinary episode that blends wealth management insights, podcasting wisdom, and the secrets to cultivating Superfans. Whether you're a long-time Rational Reminder listener or a business owner seeking to supercharge customer loyalty, this episode has something for everyone. Tune in now!

Today’s episode is an exhilarating journey into the captivating realms of finance and human behaviour with Professor Samuel Hartzmark, who takes centre stage to explore the complex intersection of asset pricing and behavioural finance. Professor Hartzmark’s career and academic journey are nothing short of inspiring. With a double major in mathematics and economics, a prestigious MBA from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, and a Ph.D. from the University of Southern California's Marshall School of Business, he has paved a remarkable path through the world of academia. Our conversation takes a deep dive into his groundbreaking research, where he dissects complex financial topics with astonishing clarity. We delve into some of his most-cited papers, including those on dividends and sustainable investing, which consistently reveal counterintuitive conclusions that challenge conventional wisdom. We unpack price-only index returns, dividend juicing, price-only data, the value of sustainability rankings, and the power of capital to make the world a better place. And don't miss our exploration of multi-factor asset pricing, where Samuel’s unique perspective sheds new light on these models in the context of human behaviour. This episode promises an enlightening and engaging conversation that investors and finance enthusiasts alike won't want to miss!

In this episode, we welcome back one of Canada's most trusted and widely read financial experts to discuss the state of Canadian personal finance. Rob Carrick is a columnist for The Globe and Mail, where he has brought his boots-on-the-ground perspective to readers for more than 20 years. He also co-hosts the Stress Test Podcast, where regular Canadians offer real-life perspectives on the biggest stress tests that their personal finances face in the wake of COVID-19. Tuning in, you’ll find out which issues are at the forefront of Rob’s readers’ lives. Next, he shares his perspective on GICs and ETFs and draws a comparison between affordable housing today and the mutual fund market of 20 to 30 years ago.

We talk about the lack of comprehensive advice that Canadians are receiving from their planners, the state of affordable housing in the country, and why so many Canadians say they are giving up on home ownership altogether. We also compare housing returns to the stock market and discuss successfully using a reverse mortgage, the non-financial challenges faced by retirees, and more. For a comprehensive overview of the state of personal finance in Canada (and some practical advice for protecting yourself and prospering in a challenging economy), don’t miss today’s episode!

AI is not new and financial mis-education is rife. These are two ideas that form the foundation of this episode, which features insights from Ben Felix, Mark McGrath, and guest speaker Anthony Walsh. To start our conversation, we explore the history of artificial intelligence and what it might mean for the future and beyond. During this Mark to Market segment, Mark McGrath shares his experience of owning property and becoming a landlord before we look back on Episode 155 with Don Ezra, where he revealed his thoughts on planning for life after work.

Anthony Walsh, author of People Are Lying To You About Money joins us to discuss his efforts to remedy the lack of financial literacy among everyday people, how he approaches financial planning as a risk-averse person, and his move from lean FI to Coast Fi. He also shares his thoughts on the relative value of money, the importance of planning according to financial wellness and health, and more.

Join us today to hear all this and so much more!

If the wealthiest families of the past century spent a reasonable amount of their wealth, invested in the stock market, and paid taxes, there would be thousands of billionaires today. But there aren’t. So, what happened? To answer this question, we are joined by authors and finance professionals, Victor Haghani and James White. Their recently released book, The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions, uses the missing billionaires puzzle to explore how and why most investors fail to capture the returns offered by the market. Victor was a founding partner of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), the multi-billion-dollar hedge fund that famously collapsed in 1998 and nearly took the global financial markets down with it. His participation in the downfall of LTCM led him to reassess much of the way he thought about investing, and in this episode, he shares some simple but powerful frameworks and personal finance recommendations.

We also receive accessible explanations of the Merton model and expected utility theory from James, take a deep dive into dynamic asset allocation, discuss optimal solutions for lifetime spending, and learn more about the certainty equivalent return and Sharpe ratios, plus so much more. Whether you’re an entrepreneur invested in your own business or simply focused on building long-term wealth, Victor and James’ book (and this conversation about it) will be a valuable resource for better financial decision-making, so be sure to tune in today!

This week we welcome back return guest Preet Banerjee, a renowned speaker, personal finance expert, consultant, and author of Stop Overthinking Your Money. Listeners may remember Preet from his previous appearance on the show back in 2019 when he was first embarking on his doctoral journey. Several years and one pandemic later, Preet has finally made it through the monumental task of completing his dissertation! We spend today’s conversation with Preet getting into the fascinating details of his research which interrogates the value of financial advice within households and explores the pressing question of whether it’s worth getting it. Preet provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of financial planning and shares his most intriguing findings before unpacking the policy and regulatory recommendations that emerge from his research.

The latter part of the show includes our Mark to Market segment with Mark McGrath, where this week, he delivers key insights on retirement savings plans (RSPs) and why he believes RSPs are actually tax-free. You’ll also hear our reflection on our past conversation with Colonel Chris Hadfield, paired with a book review of Kevin Kelly’s Excellent Advice for Living: Wisdom I Wish I'd Known Earlier. Join us for an expansive episode on the value of financial advice along with timely insights on what truly matters in life!

For nearly 25 years, Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have been a popular passive investment vehicle for both household and professional investors due to their low transaction costs and high liquidity. But what are the pros and cons? How can you diversify your portfolio to avoid volatility? Today, we are joined by Professor Itzhak Ben-David, one of the world’s foremost academic experts on ETFs, the Neil Klatskin Chair in Finance and Real Estate at The Ohio State University (OSU) Fisher College of Business, and the Academic Director of the OSU Center for Real Estate. In this episode, we look at the current ETF market and the impact that ETFs have on underlying securities and investor outcomes. We discuss Morningstar ratings, the change that happened in 2002, and some mind-blowing data regarding hedge fund fees. We also dive into the correlation between miscalibrated CFOs and overconfidence; the unnecessary mental accounting people do when it comes to tax refunds, and so much more. This conversation makes for an incredibly diversified overview of a variety of topics that are relevant to financial decision-making at the household level. Finance experts will certainly find value here, too! Regardless of your level of experience, tune in today to learn more.

Today's show is centred on the expected cost of pessimism and how investor expectations of loss negatively affect financial decisions. After concisely exploring the data and literature on the subject, we get into a few solutions to this dynamic and talk about how to find a way around natural human tendencies and myopic loss aversion. We then get into our first Mark's Minutes segment, with our colleague Mark McGrath briefly explaining some interesting ideas about risk and tax-free savings accounts.

For today's episode retrospective, we go over Episode 45 and the conversation we had with Moira Somers about effective communication and advice methods. Matthew Dicks, the author of Storyworthy then joins us to offer some insight into the utility of stories in the different areas of life, including financial advice, and more relaxed social settings. Matthew does a great job of describing and demonstrating how stories connect people, and allow ideas to flow in a natural and impactful way, so make sure to tune in.

Key Points From This Episode:

Introducing the inverse relationship between subjective return expectations and expected returns.

Potential solutions to this issue; checking investments less frequently, ignoring financial media, healthy advisor relationships, and more.

Mark's Minutes: Mark McGrath shares some background on the TFSA and its positive and negative sides.

A quick recap of our episode with Moira Somers and its lessons on effective financial advice.

An introduction to Matthew Dicks and some thoughts on storytelling.

Matthew talks about the power of storytelling to shape the world.

Strategies for finding, crafting, and telling great stories.

Matthew weighs in using storytelling in the world of investing and financial advice.

Finding the value in your own personal data and experience.

Today's after-show: upcoming events and news from home.

We make countless decisions throughout our lives that range from the mundane to the monumental. But how do you decide how you decide? That is the fundamental question in our esteemed guest, Cass R. Sunstein’s new book Decisions about Decisions: Practical Reason in Ordinary Life. Cass currently serves as the Robert Walmsley University Professor at Harvard University and is the founder and director of the Program on Behavioral Economics and Public Policy at Harvard Law School. He is also a prolific author, with one of his most notable works being the hugely popular and impactful book, Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness, which he co-wrote with Richard Thaler in 2008.

In today's conversation, we sit down with Cass to discuss the difficulties inherent to understanding why people make the decisions they make and what the latest research teaches us about how we should approach decision-making to maximize our well-being. Cass provides insight into second-order thinking strategies, the difference between picking and choosing, and why delegating a particular decision is sometimes the right call. We also unpack what to consider when making major life choices, the strengths and weaknesses of algorithms when it comes to decision-making, and much more. To hear Cass’s many insights on the topic of behaviour, knowledge, and decision-making, be sure to tune in!

In this episode, we tackle the timely topic of higher interest rates and their potential impact on investors' decisions. With rates soaring to unprecedented levels, many are tempted to veer off their investment paths in pursuit of short-term gains. But is this a rational choice? We break it down and offer invaluable insights into why staying the course might be the wiser option. We also welcome new PWL team member Mark McGrath. Mark possesses an innate talent for crafting concise, valuable, and captivating financial planning nuggets on social media. His content has struck a chord with the audience, evident from his rapidly expanding following.

Next, we take a nostalgic trip back to one of our favourite past episodes, featuring a remarkable guest, David Booth, co-founder of Dimensional Fund Advisors. With a quick review of the episode, listeners get a refresher on Booth's sage advice and investment philosophies, reminding us all why this episode remains a standout.

For the book segment, Michael Tremblay, a passionate listener, and stoicism expert, reached out to suggest an exploration of The Handbook of Epictetus. We welcome Michael to the show for an enlightening discussion on the principles of stoicism and how they can be applied to investing and everyday life.

Pim van Vliet is on a mission to put the low volatility factor on the map. In his role as Head of Conservative Equities and Chief Quantitative Strategist at Robeco, he focuses on leveraging the effect of low-risk investing. During this conversation, Pim shares his insights on volatility, the changing market, and combining low-risk with other traditional factors.

He equips listeners with key considerations for evaluating strategies or products when allocating low-risk and offers his perspective on out-of-sample-testing, distinguishing between global-factor and cross-sectional premiums, and more. Listeners will get Pim’s perspective on the pros and cons of the Sharpe ratio, and we examine risk-adjusted returns on long and short legs before hearing his Fama-French Five Factor Model analysis. We touch on inflation and gold, and finally, Pim shares his inspiring perspective on success in his financial and personal life. Tune in today to hear more!

With the recent passing of Harry Markowitz, we wanted to take this opportunity to spend some time honoring this giant of financial economics. Joining us on today's episode is our friend Alex Potts, who shares some of his touching memories of Harry, and talks about the unmistakable impact he had on the field. Harry is commonly viewed as the father of modern portfolio theory but also might be considered the grandfather of behavioural finance and a huge proponent of intelligent diversification. Alex graciously shares the nine lessons he learned from Harry, a few 'Harryisms' and some fond and surprising anecdotes from the time he spent with the man.

Following this, we welcome Edward Goodfellow to the show to explore his new book, 7 Steps to A Better Portfolio. Edward is a fellow Canadian financial advisor, and we get to hear from him about the motivations for his book, its intended audience, and his insight into a host of central and familiar themes that we deal with on the show, so join us to hear it all.

Household finance has grown considerably as a field of study in recent years. And with the decrease in defined benefits pension plans, households are increasingly needing to take more responsibility for their own financial fates (much more so than they needed to in the past). Joining us today to discuss household finance and the growing importance of households in the economy, is Professor Francisco Gomes. Francisco is a Professor of Finance at London Business School and earned his PhD in economics at Harvard with his main areas of expertise being household finance, capital markets, asset allocation, and macroeconomics. In our expansive conversation with Francisco, we discuss the increasingly important role of households in the economy, how this has contributed to household finance becoming a more prominent field of study, and what can be done to make sure that academic findings reach, and positively impact, households. Francisco shares a detailed outline of what he’s learned from his research, covering topics like level of education, automation at work, peer effects, and culture, with explanations of how these elements can impact household financial decisions. We also learn about his passion for financial literacy, why he is such a big proponent of ensuring that everyone has access to a quality personal finance education, and the personal finance course he currently teaches at London Business School. To learn more from Francisco about the study of household finance and how to improve outcomes for households, be sure to tune in today!

Our focus for today's episode is the topic of structured products and we welcome two expert guests to weigh in with their research and insight on the subject. Felix Fattinger is an Assistant Professor of Finance at the Vienna Graduate School of Finance whose research focuses on complexity from a number of perspectives. Petra Vokata is an Assistant Professor of Finance at Ohio State University, currently working in areas of household finance, financial innovation, and consumer financial protection. Both Felix and Petra offer some amazing takeaways for retail investors, deftly balancing the data with their ability to read it and implement the lessons we should learn about structured products. We then welcome Jill Schlesinger back to the show to talk about her new book, The Great Money Reset. We hear from her about the process of writing the book, her aims for its publications, and the main questions it can help individuals answer.

Today we welcome James Choi, Professor of Finance at the Yale School of Management, to the show to share some of his insight into what he has dubbed practical finance. James has focused his research on behavioural finance, behavioural economics, household finance, capital markets, health economics, and sociology, and is turning this expertise into pragmatic knowledge marketed towards ordinary people. This reframing and reconfiguration of the theory for all people and the decisions they make, could not be more in line with what we are trying to do here at Rational Reminder, and this conversation with James was packed with so many surprising and informative responses to relatable questions. We ask James about index funds, the benefits of advisors, optimal equity, diversification, and much more. We also spend a little bit of time exploring the individual reasons that people have for their decisions, with James expanding on the disconnect between people's philosophy and their actions. Further topics include the role and impact of education, renting versus buying, and the formulation of his concept of practical finance, so make sure to join us and catch it all.

Join us as we present a compilation of segments on expected returns and the dynamics that shape investment outcomes. We deep dive into the world of financial predictions and gain a comprehensive understanding of how expected returns influence your financial decision-making. We also go back to the episode with Dr. Brian Portnoy where we delved into his book, The Geometry of Wealth. Lastly, joining our conversation is our colleague Matt Gour who discusses The Power of Moments by Chip and Dan Heath. We discuss how extraordinary moments have the power to shape our lives and the pivotal importance of crafting unforgettable experiences. Tune in now!

Behavioural finance provides a realistic and comprehensive framework for understanding financial markets and decision-making. Incorporating insights from psychology, it enhances our understanding of investor behaviour, market dynamics, and risk management, leading to more effective investment strategies and improved financial outcomes. In this episode, Professor Meir Statman, a renowned expert in finance and behavioural finance, takes us on a captivating journey through the intriguing world of maximizing well-being through finance. Professor Statman is a distinguished financial expert and a leading authority in the field of behavioural finance. His groundbreaking research has shaped the understanding of investor behaviour and its impact on financial decision-making. Through his academic contributions and practical insights, Professor Statman has become a trusted guide in navigating the complex intersection of finance and human behaviour. In our conversation, he unravels the secrets of maximizing well-being through finance and the intricacies of the field. We explore the captivating world of behavioural finance and its connection to efficient markets, the distinction between normal and rational investors, the allure of lottery-like assets, and the downsides of consuming dividends. We unpack the aversion to realizing losses and the debate between dollar-cost averaging and lump-sum investing. We delve into the rising popularity of alternative investment strategies, the influence of status on rational investor behaviour, the role of financial advisors, and much more. Tune in for this enlightening conversation that will not only reshape your understanding of finance but human behaviour too.

What are your guiding philosophies on work and life? And how do they influence your daily decisions and the trajectory of your career? If these questions feel somewhat daunting, and you aren’t sure how to answer them, then this episode is a great place to start! Joining us today is Giorgio Ugazio, a self-described content creator, startup founder, and father. Giorgio is a software engineer by training, with a Master's degree in Artificial Intelligence and robotics, and spent over seven years working at Google. He is the founder of Retire In Progress, a blog where he shares his thoughts on life, work, achieving financial independence, and retiring early. The platform has amassed a dedicated following thanks to Giorgio’s many unique insights on life, design, and living intentionally.

In today’s conversation, we talk with Giorgio about the underpinnings of his philosophies, the excellent book Designing Your Life: How to Build a Well-Lived, Joyful Life, and how his interpretation of it clarified his perspectives on life and work. We discuss the key tenets in Designing Your Life along with how you can use its many tools and exercises to determine your current position, assess your value, and define your compass. Giorgio goes on to share the thinking behind his foundational beliefs, like why you shouldn’t play the status game, before reflecting on who he believes would benefit most from reading Designing Your Life. To hear all of Giorgio’s fascinating insights and how to incrementally build your model of life, be sure to tune in today!

How does the connection we have with our future self impact the decisions we make today? And what active steps can we take to improve our connection with our future selves? Today on the show we welcome back Hal Hershfield, whose new book Your Future Self: How to Make Tomorrow Better Today delves into the science of our relationship with our future selves and what we can do to change it for the better. In our conversation with Hal, we discuss the concept of the self, how we change over time, and why so many of us feel disconnected from our future selves. He describes the research surrounding these subjects and their findings, including how the brain scans they performed demonstrate that we mostly see our future selves as strangers, and why this is caused, at least in part, by the fact that our future selves don’t technically exist yet. We also discuss the interventions that have been shown to improve our relationship with our future selves, like viewing age-progressed images or exchanging letters with our future selves, and why everyone responds to these interventions differently. Having a strong connection with your future self has many benefits. It means you’re more likely to make decisions that will serve you later in life, like saving for retirement, eating healthily, and exercising regularly. But Hal also warns that we risk losing sight of the present and what truly matters when we focus solely on the future. To hear all of Hal’s knowledgeable insights on this topic and what he wants to explore next, be sure to tune in today!

Key Points From This Episode:

  • Defining the self and how our identity shifts depending on age, context, and the people we surround ourselves with. (0:04:08)

  • An overview of Hal’s research and what it reveals about how most people connect (or don’t connect) to their future selves. (0:08:29)

  • How empathy can influence our connection to our future selves. (0:11:36)

  • Insights into why we tend to think of our future self the same way we think about strangers or

    acquaintances. (0:14:19)

  • Our level of connection to our future self and how it affects wealth accumulation and financial

    well-being. (0:17:53)

  • The definition of ‘present bias’ and ‘hyperbolic discounting’ and the role they play in decisions

    about the future. (0:19:28)

  • The end-of-history illusion and the impact it has on our decisions. (0:23:02)

  • How viewing age-progressed images of yourself can help you build a connection with your

    future self. (0:26:35)

  • The research Hal is conducting with MIT Media Lab using an AI chatbot called Future You.

    (0:29:35)

© 2023 Rational Reminder Podcast 1

RRP 256 Show Notes

  • Dan Pink’s work on the power of regret and how it overlaps with Hal’s research and findings. (0:31:59)

  • The findings on being presented with age-progressed images of ourselves and how they impact our decision-making and relationship with our future selves. (0:35:20)

  • How writing to your future self can improve your decisions. (0:40:16)

  • The problems that arise when we become too focused on improving life for our future self and

    how to find harmony between the present and future. (0:44:03)

  • The COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on our collective relationship with the future.

    (0:48:10)

  • Learn about the live episode we’ll be recording at the upcoming Future Proof conference with Hal as our guest. (0:51:24)

 

Links From Today’s Episode:

Hal Hershfield — https://www.halhershfield.com/
Hal Hershfield on Twitter — https://twitter.com/HalHershfield
Hal Hershfield on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/hal-hershfield-a2b91510/
Your Future Self: How to Make Tomorrow Better Today — https://www.halhershfield.com/ yourfutureself
Episode 141: Hal Hershfield: The Psychology of Long-term Decision Making — https:// rationalreminder.ca/podcast/141
The Power of Regret: How Looking Backward Moves Us Forward — https://www.amazon.com/ Power-Regret-Looking-Backward-Forward/
Episode 246: Daniel H. Pink: How to Use Regret — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/246 Future Proof Festival — https://futureproof.advisorcircle.com/
Brian Knutson — https://profiles.stanford.edu/brian-knutson
Dan Martell — https://www.danmartell.com/
Derek Parfit — https://www.britannica.com/biography/Derek-Parfit
Daniel Gilbert — http://www.danielgilbert.com/
ING — https://www.ing.com/Home.htm
Merrill Lynch — https://www.ml.com/
Shlomo Benartzi — http://www.shlomobenartzi.com/
Stephen Shu — https://steveshuconsulting.com/
Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder- podcast/id1426530582. 

Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/
Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/
Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/
Rational Reminder Email — [email protected]
Benjamin Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/
Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix
Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/
Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/
Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore
Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/

Structured products can offer unique investment opportunities and customization but also come with risks and complexities. It is vital to thoroughly understand the product's structure, risks, and potential returns before investing. In this episode, we delve into the value of structured products and recap a past episode about the philosophy of money before continuing our focus on reading and finance by diving into the book, Just Keep Buying by Nick Maggiulli. Nick is a highly regarded author known for his insightful and engaging works on finance and investing. With a passion for demystifying complex financial concepts, Nick has earned a reputation for his ability to present information in a clear and accessible manner. His ability to blend storytelling with data-driven insights made his articles immensely popular among readers of all backgrounds. We discuss the pros and cons of financial products, why investors prefer them, the dark side of structured products, and what investors need to avoid. We recap a past episode with Barry Ritholtz about the philosophy of money and the main takeaways from our conversation with him. Then, we delve into Just Keep Buying and the invaluable lessons and uncover hidden gems it offers readers before speaking to Nick about savings and investing. We discuss the best strategies for investing, how to spend your money comfortably, why you should never wait for the markets to dip, and much more. To learn everything about structured products and valuable insights about saving and investing, tune in now. 

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

    Learn about structured products and what they offer investors. (0:03:12)

    Why structured products can be a problem for investors. (0:07:00)

    We discuss whether the pricing of structured financial products is fair. (0:12:05)

    How financial institutions use complexity to exploit uninformed investors. (0:14:51)

    Outline of key findings from research conducted on structured financial products. (0:17:47)

    The behavioural aspect of structured products and why investors prefer them. (0:22:20)

    A recap of the main takeaways from our interview with Barry Ritholtz. (0:26:10)

    This week’s book review of Just Keep Buying. (0:28:54)

    Nick explains the difference between saving and investing. (0:32:54)

    A comparison of just keep buying and dollar cost averaging strategies. (0:35:21)

    Whether people should wait for a dip in the market before investing. (0:37:23)

    Why you do not need as much savings as you think you need. (0:39:04)

    What the biggest lie is regarding personal finance. (0:42:29)

    Find out how to spend your money guilt-free. (0:44:13)

    He unpacks what comes after the just keep buying strategy, and how to be comfortable spending more in retirement. (0:46:48)

    Financial advice that Nick has for listeners. (0:51:03)

    The aftershow: upcoming guests, feedback about the show, and more. (0:53:59) 

 

Links From Today’s Episode:

Nick Maggiulli — https://ofdollarsanddata.com/
Nick Maggiulli on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholasmaggiulli/
Nick Maggiulli on Twitter — https://twitter.com/dollarsanddata
Just Keep Buying — https://www.amazon.com/Just-Keep-Buying-Proven-wealth/
Episode 57: Barry Ritholtz — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/57
Episode 248: Professor William Goetzmann — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/248 Episode 253: Professor Paul Calluzzo — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/253
Episode 126: Dr. Brian Portnoy and Josh Brown — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/126 ‘The dark side of financial innovation’ — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/ ‘Catering to Investors Through Security Design’ — https://academic.oup.com/qje/article- abstract/132/3/1469/3057435
‘Engineering lemons’ — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/ S0304405X21001653
‘Ex-post Structured Product Returns’ — https://www.pm-research.com/content/iijinvest/24/2/45 Ritholtz Wealth Management — https://ritholtzwealth.com/

Animal Spirits Podcast — https://animalspiritspod.libsyn.com/
Masters in Business Podcast — https://www.bloomberg.com/podcasts/series/master-in- business
Die With Zero — https://www.amazon.com/Die-Zero-Getting-Your-Money/dp/0358099765 Superfans — https://www.amazon.com/Superfans-Stand-Tribe-Successful-Business/dp/ 1949709469
Storyworthy — https://www.amazon.com/Storyworthy-Engage-Persuade-through-Storytelling/ dp/1608685489
Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder- podcast/id1426530582. 

Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/
Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/
Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/
Rational Reminder Email — [email protected]
Benjamin Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/
Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix
Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/
Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/
Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore
Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/

There are many different objective functions you can use when building optimal portfolios. The majority of these approaches define risk from the perspective of variability or bad outcomes, but positive returns could be viewed as “risky” for those that don’t experience them, which is another way of saying that people experience regret (or FOMO, for our trendier listeners). Today, we are joined by David Blanchett, a return guest and the Managing Director and Head of Retirement Research for PGIM DC Solutions, the global investment management arm of Prudential Financial. He is also an Adjunct Professor of Wealth Management at The American College of Financial Services and a Research Fellow for the Alliance for Lifetime Income. David returns to the podcast for an articulate discussion about regret in portfolio construction, what drives it, and how financial advisors can cater to it. We then delve into how David is redefining optimal retirement income strategies, looking at retirement tools, retirement planning, compensation models in the industry, risk exposures, and portfolios. We also get a high-level overview of some of the fascinating work that David has done on home-country bias, plus so much more. For highly technical content presented in an accessible and practical way by one of the brightest minds in retirement planning, be sure to tune in today!

Key Points From This Episode:

• Differences between risk aversion and regret aversion. (0:03:57)
• The distinctly human element that drives “investment FOMO.” (0:06:34)
• Insight into how David models regret in his research. (0:09:06)
• The asset pricing implications of approaching portfolio optimization this way. (0:12:11)
• Tips for deciding on what the regret benchmark should be. (0:13:19)
• How a portfolio optimization routine based on regret affects asset allocation. (0:14:08)
• Ways that the effect of optimizing over regret changes depending on risk aversion. (0:16:55) • Other asset characteristics that might drive optimal allocation to regret assets. (0:18:04)
• Why moving away from self-direction is the best thing to happen to 401(k) plans. (0:20:53)
• How financial advisors should cater to investors interested in speculative assets. (0:24:00)
• Unpacking some of the social and story-driven sources of regret. (0:29:03)
• Downsides to modelling retirement liability as a static inflation-adjusted amount. (0:32:00)
• Why it’s important to understand the composition of retiree spending and saving. (0:33:57)
• David’s research into dynamic spending rules for retirement planning. (0:42:06)
• Some of the key pitfalls of existing financial planning tools and solutions. (0:44:38)
• Ways that safe withdrawal rates change when you incorporate dynamic spending. (0:51:10) • How advisor channel affects passive fund choice and how clients should respond. (0:57:56) • Insight into David’s research on foreign revenue and home-country bias. (1:02:27)

 

 

Links From Today’s Episode:

David Blanchett — https://www.davidmblanchett.com/
David Blanchett on Twitter — https://twitter.com/davidmblanchett
David Blanchett on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-blanchett-b0b0aa2/

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© 2023 Rational Reminder Podcast 2

RRP 254 Show Notes

PGIM — https://www.pgim.com/
E137: David Blanchett: Researching Retirement — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/137 ‘Regret and Optimal Portfolio Allocations’ — https://www.pm-research.com/content/iijpormgmt/ early/2023/02/01/jpm20231464
‘Keep Keeping Your Distance: An Updated Look at 401(k) Participant Behaviors During the COVID-19 Crisis’ — https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1032011/keep-keeping-your- distance-an-updated-look-at-401k-participant-behaviors-during-the-covid-19-crisis
‘Save more with less: The impact of employer defaults and match rates on retirement saving’ — https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/cfp2.1152
‘Redefining the Optimal Retirement Income Strategy’ — https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/ 10.1080/0015198X.2022.2129947
‘Focusing on Both Sides of the Balance Sheet: The Benefit of Liability Optimization’ — https:// web.p.ebscohost.com/abstract
‘The Problems with Monte Carlo are in Your Mind’ — https://www.advisorperspectives.com/ articles/2023/04/24/the-problems-with-monte-carlo-are-in-your-mind
‘Does Advisor Channel Influence Passive Fund Choice?’ — https:// www.financialplanningassociation.org/learning/publications/journal/APR22-does-advisor- channel-influence-passive-fund-choice-OPEN
‘Foreign Revenue: A New World of Risk Exposures’ — https://www.pm-research.com/content/ iijpormgmt/47/6/175
Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder- podcast/id1426530582. 

Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/
Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/
Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/
Rational Reminder Email — [email protected]
Benjamin Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/
Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix
Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/
Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/
Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore
Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/

We have two guests joining us for this episode of the Rational Reminder podcast. First up, we have Paul Calluzzo, who is the Assistant Professor of Finance and Toller Family Fellow of Finance in the Smith School of Business at Queen's University in Kingston. Paul joins us today to discuss the findings in his paper, ‘Complex Instruments Have Increased Risk and Reduced Performance at Mutual Funds’. He explains the motivation for the paper, the research it expands upon, and the types of complex instrument allowances it investigates. We discuss reverse causality and find out how complex instrument allowance is related to fund performance and risk, respectively, before hearing Paul’s investment advice. For the second half of the show, we are joined by the author of Losing the Signal: The Spectacular Rise and Fall of BlackBerry, Sean Silcoff to discuss the BlackBerry revolution and its subsequent decline, and the film adaptation of the book. Tune in for our guests’ insights into best practices for investors and business leaders alike.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

•    Housekeeping: check out our CE courses and reach out for financial advice. (0:02:25)

•    An introduction to Paul Calluzzo and our conversation with him about the impact of complex financial instruments on mutual funds. (0:05:20)

•    The motivation for the paper, ‘Complex Instruments Have Increased Risk and Reduced Performance at Mutual Funds’, the research it expands upon, and the types of complex instrument allowances it investigates. (0:07:50)

•    Reverse causality relating to complex instruments and mutual funds, and the mechanisms that could potentially harm investors in funds using complex instruments. (0:12:37)

•    How the performance of funds was evaluated in the paper and how the usage of complex instruments evolved throughout the sample. (0:18:12)

•    How complex instrument allowance is related to fund performance and risk. (0:23:06)

•    The asymmetry of return patterns in up and down markets. (0:26:11)

•    Paul’s investment advice, in the context of the paper’s findings. (0:33:05)

•    Why complex products are growing despite their poor performance and how research can reach the market. (0:37:05)

•    A quick recap of episode 39 with Rob Carrick. (0:40:48)

•    Our brief review of Losing the Signal: The Spectacular Rise and Fall of BlackBerry by Sean Silcoff and Jacquie McNish. (0:41:49)

•    Sean Silcoff breaks down the BlackBerry revolution and its subsequent demise. (0:44:53)

•    Insight into the film adaptation of the book and what makes it such a compelling story. (1:04:51)

•    What business leaders and investors can take away from the BlackBerry story. (1:08:09)

•    Our after-show roundup! (1:15:12)

 

 

Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode:

https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-253-complex-financial-instruments-with-prof-paul-calluzzo-plus-sean-silcoff-on-losing-the-signal-discussion-thread/23482

 

Book From Today’s Episode:

Losing The Signal: The Spectacular Rise and Fall of BlackBerry Kindle Editionhttps://amzn.to/3OaA5Wa

 

Links From Today’s Episode:

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.

Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/

Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/

Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/

Follow us on Twitter — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind

Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder

Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix

Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore

Paul Calluzzo — https://smith.queensu.ca/faculty_and_research/faculty_list/calluzzo-paul.php

Sean Silcoff on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/sean-silcoff-777b0912

Sean Silcoff on Twitter — https://twitter.com/SeanSilcoff

'Complex Instruments Have Increased Risk and Reduced Performance at Mutual Funds' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2938146

 

 

 

Understanding market efficiency is an important part of investment decision-making. It can help investors to identify the most appropriate investment strategies and develop realistic expectations for their returns. In this episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast, we sit down with Professor Burton Malkiel, the renowned economist, and author of the classic investing book A Random Walk Down Wall Street. Professor Malkiel is a distinguished figure in the world of economics and academia. He holds the prestigious title of Chemical Bank Chairman's Professor of Economics Emeritus and Senior Economist at Princeton, where he has made significant contributions to the field over the years. In our conversation, we discuss Professor Malkiel’s views on the stock market, the efficient market hypothesis, how behavioural finance relates to investing, and why index funds should be at the core of every portfolio. Throughout the episode, Professor Malkiel shares his insights on a wide range of topics related to personal finance and investing, including the benefits of index funds, the dangers of active stock picking, the impact of fees and taxes on investment returns, factor investing, and expensive asset classes. He also discusses research on socially responsible investing and how investors can incorporate ethical considerations into their portfolios without sacrificing performance. In this episode, listeners will gain a better understanding of the vital principles of investing and how to apply them to achieve their financial goals. Whether you're a novice investor or an experienced pro, this episode offers valuable insights and advice from one of the most respected economists in the field, Professor Malkiel.

Key Points From This Episode:

  • Professor Malkiel explains the efficient market hypothesis and what the term “efficient market” means. (0:03:42)

  • What the media tends to get wrong about the concept of market efficiency and the mathematical theory behind a random walk market. (0:07:04)

  • We discuss investing in index funds rather than actively managed strategies. (0:09:44)

  • How his book, Random Walk, was received by professionals and academics in the industry

    (0:13:08)

  • Hear about the inspiration behind the concept covered in his book, and how his investment advice has changed over the last 50 years. (0:19:18)

  • Why index funds have become widely accepted, and the difference between investing and speculating. (0:23:38)

  • He unpacks why past market bubbles are vital for managers to understand and shares some wise words for those who want to participate in market speculation investing. (0:28:21)

  • How the existence and persistence of bubbles throughout history relate to markets being efficient. (0:32:10)

 
 
  • Find out how the multiple, non-diversifiable risks in today’s financial markets impact the advice in his book, and learn about factor investing. (0:35:42)

  • He shares advice and insights for people looking to invest in cheaper funds and his perspective on trending investment strategies. (0:37:55)

  • Learn how the general findings from behavioural finance influence his advice on investing in index funds. (0:41:33)

  • We explore the value of risk parity strategies and the problem with backtests, and he shares his view on expensive asset classes. (0:44:09)

  • What impact super-low bond yields had on the return of bonds, and whether you should focus on the value or yield. (0:54:16)

  • The importance of saving as opposed to an optimal investment strategy to investor outcomes.

    (0:57:56)

  • Insights into investing according to your desired outcomes and whether Professor Malkiel thinks it is better to rent or own a home. (1:03:55)

  • We discuss inflation and possible future trends and the role of financial planners and investment advisors. (1:10:29)

  • Hear his concerns regarding the growth of index fund assets. (1:14:52)

  • Details about his book writing journey and his definition of success. (1:18:46)

 

Links From Today’s Episode:

Burt Malkiel — https://jrc.princeton.edu/people/burton-g-malkiel Wealthfront — https://www.wealthfront.com/
Theravance Biopharma — https://www.theravance.com/ Genmab A/S — https://www.genmab.com/

Rebalance IRA — https://www.rebalance360.com/

A Random Walk Down Wall Street: The Best Investment Guide That Money Can Buy — https://amzn.to/3BgepQz


Princeton University — https://www.princeton.edu/
The Yale School of Management — https://som.yale.edu/
Vanguard — https://investor.vanguard.com/corporate-portal/
Trillions — https://www.amazon.com/Trillions-Renegades-Invented-Changed-Finance/dp/ 0593087682
S&P Dow Jones Indices — https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/
S&P Dow Jones Indices SPIVA — https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/research-insights/spiva/ Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder- podcast/id1426530582. 

Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/
Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/
Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/
Rational Reminder Email — [email protected]
Benjamin Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/
Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix
Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/
Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/
Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore
Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/

We all have different levels of risk tolerance. But how is that risk measured for complex investment strategies like covered calls? And how can you be sure it's an accurate reflection of reality? For the first portion of today’s episode, we provide a detailed breakdown of everything you need to know about covered calls and why there is no perfect model for assessing risk-adjusted returns. We examine how incorrect measures of risk can make covered calls seem more attractive, what investors need to know about covered calls, and the fees, costs, and taxes you should be considering with these types of strategies. Next, we are joined by lifelong friends and colleagues Jonathan Hollow and Robin Powell to discuss their new book How to Fund the Life You Want: What everyone needs to know about savings, pensions and investments. They describe how their shared passion for financial education motivated them to write their book, before explaining how readers can best use the accompanying workbook to identify and reach their financial goals. Robin and Jonathan then go on to share their advice on day-to-day money management, finding a trustworthy advisor, and why it’s never too early to teach your child about money. Tune in for a detailed breakdown of covered calls and how to make informed decisions about your investments and finances!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

  • An introduction to the concept of covered calls. (0:02:41)
  • The definition of covered calls, how risk can be measured incorrectly to make covered call strategies look more attractive, and why risk can never be destroyed. (0:04:22)
  • A breakdown of the assets involved in covered calls and why their yields can be misleading. (0:07:00)
  • Why there is no perfect model for assessing risk-adjusted returns and what can be learned from looking at investors through a behavioural lens. (0:16:19)
  • An overview of why fees, costs, and taxes are major considerations for these types of strategies. (0:20:15)
  • Introducing Robin Powell, Jonathan Hollow and their new book How to Fund the Life You Want. (0:25:08)
  • Jonathan and Robin’s long friendship, their shared interest in financial education, why they saw a need for their book, and how readers can get the most out of their workbook. (0:30:45)
  • Insight into the six rules that Robin and Jonathan outline in their book and the eight keywords that they set up for managing money day to day. (0:35:07)
  • Advice on how to keep up with finance news, including what you should pay attention to and what you can ignore. (0:40:37) 
  • The importance of a day-to-day savings habit and suggestions on what kids should be taught about money. (0:43:20)
  • Advice on how to find a first-rate advisor based on your needs and what questions you need to be asking of them. (0:49:54)
  • How your financial advisor should act as your financial bodyguard and complement your weaknesses. (0:56:02)
  • Ben and Cameron share news about their next podcast appearances, Rational Reminder education courses for financial advisors, and upcoming meetups. (0:57:43)
  • Learn about the webinars that Ben and Cameron have been hosting and how you can sign up. (01:03:00)

 

 

Links From Today’s Episode:

 

Robin Powell on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/robinpowell/

Jonathan Hollow on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathanhollow/

How to Fund the Life You Want: What everyone needs to know about savings, pensions and investments — https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/1399404601/

Covered Calls — https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/coveredcall.asp

Episode 27: Robin Powell: Evidence Based Investing: Changing the Minds of Advisors and Investors — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/27

Patrick Boyle on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/c/PatrickBoyleOnFinance

Sharpe Ratio — https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sharperatio.asp

Sortino Ratio — https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sortinoratio.asp

S&P 500 — https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/#overview

Episode 167: Prof. Hersh Shefrin: Fear, Hope, and the Psychology of Investing — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/167

‘Behavioral Aspects of the Design and Marketing of Financial Products’ — https://www.jstor.org/stable/3665864

Episode 171: Prof. Campbell R. Harvey: The Past and Future of Finance — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/171

‘Portfolio Performance Manipulation and Manipulation-Proof Performance Measures’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=302815

Adviser 2.0 — https://www.advicereinvented.com/

Sensible Investing — https://sensibleinvesting.tv/

Financial Times — https://www.ft.com/

Rob Carrick — https://www.theglobeandmail.com/authors/rob-carrick/
The Globe and Mail — https://www.theglobeandmail.com/

The Money and Meaning Show — https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-money-and-meaning-show/id1449894787

The Most Hated F Word — https://themosthatedfword.com/

New Self-Regulatory Organization of Canada — https://www.newselfregulatoryorganizationofcanada.ca/

FP Canada — https://www.fpcanada.ca/

Rational Reminder Continuing Education — learn.rationalreminder.ca

PWL Capital — https://www.pwlcapital.com/

PWL Capital on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/c/Pwlcapital-Montreal/videos

IAFP Symposium — https://iafpsymposium.ca

Burt Malkiel — https://jrc.princeton.edu/people/burton-g-malkiel

David Blanchett — https://www.davidmblanchett.com/

Meir Statman — https://www.scu.edu/business/finance/faculty/statman/

Nick Maggiulli — https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholasmaggiulli/

Jill Schlesinger — https://www.jillonmoney.com/

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.
Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ 

Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/

Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/

Rational Reminder Email — [email protected]
Benjamin Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/ 

Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix

Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/

Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/

Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore

Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/

Navigating the world of finance and investing is undeniably complicated, sometimes unnecessarily so. And all too often the people who end up making the most costly financial mistakes are those who can least afford to do so. But what exactly needs to change in order for more people to make wise and well-informed financial decisions? And how do we go about implementing those changes? Joining us today to help us unpack this topic and the many decisions involved in the world of investing is John Y. Campbell, a British-American economist, professor of economics at Harvard, and founding partner at Arrowstreet Capital, a systematic asset management firm based in Boston. John has published over a hundred of articles on a range of topics including fixed income, equality valuation, portfolio choices, and household finance, all of which we explore in today’s expansive conversation. We kick things off by discussing utility theory, why it’s so important to the study of finance, and what it can teach us about risk aversion, before delving into portfolio structure, asset allocation, and hedging. John also expands on the study of household finance, the mistakes that households typically make, why household behaviour tends to differ from theoretical predictions, and how to bring theory and behaviour into alignment. We wrap things up by discussing how financial literacy, education, and regulation can improve outcomes for households before hearing John’s advice on selecting an optimal mortgage contract along with an overview of the type of risk that mortgage contracts expose you to. Today’s episode is jam-packed with information and insights from a profoundly knowledgeable figure in academia.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

•    An overview of asset pricing theory; unpacking the utility function in finance, what it teaches us about being risk averse, and how it is used to determine the value we place on any amount of money. (0:04:01)

•    The implications of using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) for portfolio choice. (0:13:58)

•    The difference between arbitrage pricing theory and the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM). (0:18:15)

•    How predictability in stock returns affects portfolio advice for long-term investors and why John prefers the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio. (0:23:40)

•    Why a long-term inflation index bond is the ideal risk-free asset for a long-term investor, and how portfolio advice, concerning bonds, changes when inflation index bonds are not available. (0:28:32)

•    The impact that labour income should have on optimal portfolio choice and the relationship between human capital and financial assets as you age. (0:35:31)

•    Learn about John’s 2004 paper entitled ‘Bad Beta, Good Beta’ and how intertemporal asset pricing explains differences in returns between value and growth stocks. (0:38:33)

•    The benefits and drawbacks of value investing: why historically they do well on average, but extremely poorly over certain periods. (0:41:12)

•    A breakdown of stochastic volatility and how it affects portfolio choice for long-term investors. (0:47:16)

•    How long-term equity investors should approach foreign currency hedging in their portfolios, and how fixed-income investors should deal with foreign currency exposure. (0:50:07)

•    The study of household finance, what it aims to answer, and the major challenges in this area of study. (0:53:54)

•    An overview of the mistakes that households typically make, how costly they can be, and why household behaviour tends to differ from theoretical predictions. (0:59:57)

•    Suggestions on how household behaviour and theoretical predictions can be brought into alignment and the methods that have the most potential to improve outcomes for households. (01:04:47)

•    What households should take into account when selecting an optimal mortgage contract and the different types of risk that mortgage contracts expose people to.[01:10:18]

•    How John’s definition of success has shifted over the years, the joy of academia, and why he is especially grateful for the opportunity to connect with students on their educational journey. (01:16:04)

 

 

 

Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode:

https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-250-prof-john-y-campbell-financial-decisions-for-long-term-investors-discussion-thread/23202

 

Links From Today’s Episode:

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.
 Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/

Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/

Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/

Follow us on Twitter — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind

Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder

Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix

Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore

John Y. Campbell — https://scholar.harvard.edu/campbell/home

'Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds' — https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w6801/w6801.pdf

'Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds' — https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/campbell/files/campbellsunderamviceira_20160523.pdf

'Growth or Glamour? Fundamentals and Systematic Risk in Stock Returns' — https://scholar.harvard.edu/sites/scholar.harvard.edu/files/campbell/files/gorg20090319_copyedited.pdf

'Bad Beta, Good Beta' — https://scholar.harvard.edu/sites/scholar.harvard.edu/files/campbell/files/bbgb_2004_nberw9509.pdf

'An Intertemporal CAPM with Stochastic Volatility' — https://scholar.harvard.edu/sites/scholar.harvard.edu/files/campbell/files/cgpt_volatilityrisk20170123final.pdf

'Global Currency Hedging' — https://scholar.harvard.edu/sites/scholar.harvard.edu/files/campbell/files/globalcurrencyhedging_20090128_manuscript.pdf

'Biases in long-horizon predictive regressions' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X21004013

'What Drives Booms and Busts in Value?' — https://scholar.harvard.edu/sites/scholar.harvard.edu/files/campbell/files/cgp_valueboomsbusts_20230311.pdf

'Household Finance' — https://scholar.harvard.edu/sites/scholar.harvard.edu/files/campbell/files/householdfinance_jof_2006.pdf

'The Cross-Section of Household Preferences' — https://scholar.harvard.edu/sites/scholar.harvard.edu/files/campbell/files/calvetcampbellgomessodini_20221027.pdf

'Restoring Rational Choice: The Challenge of Consumer Financial Regulation' — https://scholar.harvard.edu/sites/scholar.harvard.edu/files/campbell/files/elylecture_march2016.pdf

'Down or Out: Assessing the Welfare Costs of Household Investment Mistakes' — https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/524204

'A Model of Mortgage Default' — https://scholar.harvard.edu/sites/scholar.harvard.edu/files/campbell/files/mortdefault13022014.pdf

'Household Risk Management and Optimal Mortgage Choice' — https://scholar.harvard.edu/campbell/publications/household-risk-management-and-optimal-mortgage-choice

'Predicting the Equity Premium Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?' — https://www.nber.org/papers/w11468

'An Asset Allocation Puzzle' — https://www.nber.org/papers/w4857

 

 

Our focus for this episode is the real utility of financial advisors, and Ben shares a host of research and findings about the supposed and actual value that advisors can offer investors. This segment continues our exploration of investment basics, a fundamental theme for this show and our work at PWL Capital. One of the biggest and clearest lessons that becomes apparent through this discussion is the need for financial literacy independent of advice and so-called expertise from the outside. With that said, we do find time to share some of the positives investors can accrue from dealing with a trustworthy advisor and the conditions necessary for this. Later in the episode, our colleague Lukas Fleck joins us to share his review of The Obstacle Is the Way by Ryan Holiday and some of his own reading habits and tips. We finish the episode with lighter content about hot sauces, TV shows, and Ben's latest home improvement.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

•    Introducing today's question about the usefulness of financial advisors. (0:03:35)

•    Common financial mistakes made by households. (0:11:13)

•    Some of the research and findings grounding today's discussion. (0:18:13)

•    Investing and self-control; what we can learn from data about smokers. (0:22:49)

•    Looking at some of the potential benefits of hiring an advisor for investors. (0:28:40)

•    A quick review of Episode 43 with Dave Butler from 2019. (0:34:07)

•    Today's book review of The Obstacle Is the Way, with Lukas Fleck, and some of the biggest takeaways. (0:36:43)

•    A look at Lukas' reading habits, favourite recent books, and his increased focus on getting through books. (0:44:59)

•    Advice for starting a book club and Lukas' reading hacks. (0:50:49)

•    The after-show; Ben tells us about his basketball hoop, last week's episode of Succession, and the hot sauce debate. (0:54:44)

•    Upcoming events, audience reviews, and future guests on the podcast. (0:58:31)

 

 

Ad mentioned by Ben:

Video: https://www.reddit.com/user/AMF_Quebec/comments/11rzoc9/les_risques_de_fraude_avec_les_cryptos_sont_bien/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&utm_content=1&utm_term=15

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Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode:

https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-249-what-are-financial-advisors-measurably-useful-for-discussion-thread/23120

 

Books From Today’s Episode:

The Obstacle Is the Way: The Timeless Art of Turning Trials into Triumphhttps://amzn.to/3MXh1dl

The Behavior Gap: Simple Ways to Stop Doing Dumb Things with Moneyhttps://amzn.to/3UM8KLb

Deep Work: Rules for Focused Success in a Distracted Worldhttps://amzn.to/3AuSXqZ

Making Numbers Count: The Art and Science of Communicating Numbershttps://amzn.to/41HXnWK

 

Links From Today’s Episode:

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.
 Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/

Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/

Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/

Follow us on Twitter — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind

Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder

Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix

Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore

Lukas Fleck — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/lukas-fleck/

'Restoring Rational Choice: The Challenge of Consumer Financial Regulation' — https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.p20161127

'Financial literacy and financial resilience: Evidence from around the world' — https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/fima.12283

'Strategic price complexity in retail financial markets' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X08002092

'Shrouded Attributes, Consumer Myopia, and Information Suppression in Competitive Markets' — https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/121/2/505/1884013?redirectedFrom=fulltext

'The Role of Time Preferences and Exponential-Growth Bias in Retirement Savings' — https://www.nber.org/papers/w21482

'Contract Design and Self-Control: Theory and Evidence' — https://www.jstor.org/stable/25098689

'Restoring Rational Choice: The Challenge of Consumer Financial Regulation' — https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.p20161127

'Why Does the Law of One Price Fail? An Experiment on Index Mutual Funds' — https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/4686775/Laibson_OnePriceFail.pdf

'Failure to refinance' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X16301507

'Down or Out: Assessing the Welfare Costs of Household Investment Mistakes' — https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/524204

'Financial literacy and stock market participation' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X11000717

'Attention Induced Trading and Returns: Evidence from Robinhood Users' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3715077

'Excessive Extrapolation and the Allocation of 401(k) Accounts to Company Stock' — https://www.jstor.org/stable/2697737

'$100 Bills on the Sidewalk: Suboptimal Investment in 401(k) Plans' — https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3158583/

'Save More Tomorrow: Using Behavioral Economics to Increase Employee Saving' — https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/380085

'Annuitization Puzzles' — https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.25.4.143

'The Market for Financial Advice: An Audit Study' — https://www.nber.org/papers/w17929

'Understanding the Advice of Commissions-Motivated Agents: Evidence from the Indian Life Insurance Market' — https://www.hbs.edu/ris/Publication%20Files/12-055_13c23c02-e57f-4aea-9630-316aa4b772ce.pdf

'Fiduciary Duty and the Market for Financial Advice' — https://www.nber.org/papers/w25861

'Conflicting Interests and the Effect of Fiduciary Duty: Evidence from Variable Annuities' — https://academic.oup.com/rfs/article-abstract/35/12/5334/6674521

'How (not) to pay for advice: A framework for consumer financial protection' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X12000074

'Financial Advice and Bank Profits' — https://academic.oup.com/rfs/article-abstract/31/11/4447/4985213?redirectedFrom=fulltext

'The Misguided Beliefs of Financial Advisors' — https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jofi.12995

'Retail Financial Advice: Does One Size Fit All?' — https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jofi.12514

'The Ulysses option: Smoking and delegation in individual investor decisions' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1544612321003962

'Smoking hot portfolios? Trading behavior, investment biases, and self-control failure' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0927539821000463

'Exponential Growth Bias and Household Finance' — https://www.jstor.org/stable/27735191

'Money Doctors' — https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/shleifer/files/moneydoctors_journaloffinance.pdf

'The Costs and Benefits of Financial Advice' — https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Shared%20Documents/conferences/2013-household-behavior-risky-asset-mkts/Costs-and-Benefits-of-Financial-Advice_Foerster-Linnainmaa-Melzer-Previtero.pdf

'Time is money: Rational life cycle inertia and the delegation of investment management' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X16300472

'Passing the buck: Delegating choices to others to avoid responsibility and blame' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0749597815300108#:~:text=One%20simple%20way%20to%20avoid,outcome%20on%20the%20other%20person.

'Expert financial advice neurobiologically "Offloads" financial decision-making under risk' — https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19308261/

'Impact of inflated perceptions of financial literacy on financial decision making' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0167487020300672

'Precautionary savings, retirement planning and misperceptions of financial literacy' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X17301551

'Behavioral and wealth considerations for seeking professional financial planning help' — https://fpcanadaresearchfoundation.ca/media/khyfoso3/financial-services-reveiw-publication.pdf

'Financial literacy and the demand for financial advice' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S037842661400096X

'Does financial literacy affect the value of financial advice? A contingent valuation approach' — https://www.researchgate.net/publication/338669648_Does_financial_literacy_affect_the_value_of_financial_advice_A_contingent_valuation_approach

'How financial literacy shapes the demand for financial advice at older ages' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212828X21000220

'Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk Taking?' — https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/126/1/373/1901343?redirectedFrom=fulltext

'(Over)insuring Modest Risks’ — https://www.jstor.org/stable/25760237

'The Mismatch Between Life Insurance Holdings and Financial Vulnerabilities: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study' — https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/000282803321455340

'Saving and Life Insurance Holdings at Boston University - A Unique Case Study' — https://www.jstor.org/stable/23877728

'Who is internationally diversified? Evidence from the 401(k) plans of 296 firms' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X16302483?via%3Dihub

'Is conflicted investment advice better than no advice?' —  https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X20301537

'How Does Household Portfolio Diversification Vary with Financial Literacy and Financial Advice?' — https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jofi.12231

'Financial Advice and Individual Investor Portfolio Performance' — https://www.jstor.org/stable/41493871

'Financial advisors: A case of babysitters?' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0378426611002548

'Professional financial advice, self-control and saving behavior' — https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ijcs.12480

'Do contracts influence comprehensive financial advice?' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1429807

'The Value of Financial Advice' — https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadepfau/2015/07/21/the-value-of-financial-advice/?sh=6b13feda1333

How the financial system works and how we interact with it has grown in complex ways and is a fascinating but nuanced topic. To guide us through the history of the economy is Professor William Goetzmann, who is an expert in finance, economics and art history, and whose research has been featured in top publications. As a highly respected scholar, he's authored numerous books on topics such as real estate and behavioural finance. It is fair to say Professor Goetzmann's work has left a significant impact on both academia and the world. In our conversation, we dive into financial market history and explore more than just broad market returns. We unpack the fascinating phenomenon of economic bubbles and booms, and how they have evolved and shaped the financial system. He also shares crucial insights from the past and advice for investors looking to leverage the market. And to wrap things up, Professor Goetzmann shares his views on money after digging deep into its historical roots. Tune in to unlock the secrets of the past and gain valuable insights for the future as we journey through the fascinating world of economic history. Tune in now!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

•    Why is it important to collect and examine long-term historical returns data, and how useful the findings can be for today’s market. (0:03:21)

•    The furthest back in time that Professor William Goetzmann has looked at equity returns and how much of an issue survivorship bias is in long-term historical data. (0:05:44)

•    Reasons for the United States market trends concerning equity risk premiums and his approach to forecasting long-term returns of both stocks and bonds. (0:11:02)

•    Whether current discount rates are better for estimating future returns than long-term historical returns. (0:17:08)

•    How the markets of today compare to the markets of the 1900s, and whether investor behaviour has changed. (0:18:42)

•    Learn how global finance changed after the First World War and how likely a global financial meltdown is. (0:23:35)

•    What to consider when investing internationally and whether Canadian investors should be biased towards their home country. (0:28:23)

•    Hear Professor Goetzmann’s definition of an asset price bubble and his approach to studying economic bubbles and booms. (0:32:44)

•    Overview of the economic bubble and boom trends and crucial advice he has for investors regarding a market run-up. (0:36:18)

•    An explanation for negative bubble behaviour and how well market crashes align with investor expectations. (0:41:46)

•    The role of media in influencing investor behaviour, and whether long-term investors should ignore news from the financial media. (0:47:35)

•    What Professor Goetzmann has learned from studying bubble dynamics, and his advice for investing in transformative technologies. (0:52:50)

•    Professor Goetzmann’s book Money Changes Everything, his definition of money, and if money pre-dates trusted authorities. (0:57:47)

•    The role of money in finance and a brief outline of how finance played a role in the development of modern civilization. (1:02:13)

•    Professor Goetzmann’s definition of success. (1:06:08)

 

 

 

Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode:

https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-248-prof-william-goetzmann-learning-from-financial-market-history-discussion-thread/23010

Book From Today’s Episode:

Money Changes Everything: How Finance Made Civilization Possiblehttps://amzn.to/3KqOYzX

Links From Today’s Episode:

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.
 Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/

Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/

Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/

Follow us on Twitter — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind

Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder

Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix

Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore

Prof. William Goetzmann on Twitter — https://twitter.com/wgoetzmann

Prof. William Goetzmann — https://som.yale.edu/faculty-research/faculty-directory/william-n-goetzmann

'History and the Equity Risk Premium' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=702341

'The present value relation over six centuries: The case of the Bazacle company' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X18302836?via%3Dihub

'A Century of Global Stock Markets' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=225683

'Will History Rhyme?' — https://jpm.pm-research.com/content/30/5/34

'New evidence on the first financial bubble' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X12002541

'Bubble Investing: Learning from History' — https://www.nber.org/papers/w21693#:~:text=History%20is%20important%20to%20the,sample%20size%20for%20inference%20small.

'Negative bubbles: What happens after a crash' — https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/eufm.12164

'Crash Beliefs From Investor Surveys — https://www.nber.org/papers/w22143

'Crash Narratives' — https://www.nber.org/papers/w30195

 

 

There’s been a lot of interest in the topic of bank runs lately, and in today’s episode, we take a look at the most relevant research to help us better understand why they happen and how they can be avoided. Our conversation unpacks the 2022 Nobel prize-winning work of Douglas Diamond and Philip Dybvig and examines the three primary risks that banks need to navigate to avoid a bank run related crisis. We discuss the immense value that banks provide and how they keep the economy moving, before reflecting on how their most valuable services are inexorably tied to the risk of bank runs. You’ll also learn about the role of the media in triggering a bank run, and how the problems that arise with bank runs can be addressed through a combination of deposit insurance, bank regulation, and a diverse customer base — all of which are designed to keep depositors from panicking simultaneously. We also revisit a past conversation with Jonathan Clements, before catching up with him in real time to discuss his new book My Money Journey: How 30 People Found Financial Freedom - and You Can Too. Tune in for an in-depth look at bank runs, the value of writing your money story, and a timely reminder that when you’re making a deposit, you’re actually lending money to the bank.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

•    An introduction to the topic of bank runs including an overview of the Nobel prize-winning work done on the subject in 2022. (0:02:12)

•    The three primary risks you need to manage as a bank in order to be a successful business. (0:07:28)

•    Why liquidity, illiquidity, and duration risk can pose a problem, even for healthy banks. (0:12:47)

•    How news stories can create unwarranted panic and cause a bank run, even if a bank isn’t experiencing problems. (0:16:02)

•    The multiple equilibria of banks as outlined in the Diamond and Dybvig paper. (0:16:31)

•    How deposit insurance can function as a solution, at least in part, to bank runs. (0:19:34)

•    What the Diamond and Dybvig paper teaches us about the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) bank run. (0:21:35)

•    The difference between households and banks, and the lessons households can learn from the narrative around bank runs. (0:22:59)

•    A quick recap of our conversation with Jonathan Clements and a review of his new book My Money Journey: How 30 People Found Financial Freedom - and You Can Too. (0:27:16)

•    We welcome Jonathan Clements back onto the show to discuss his new book and why he wrote it. (0:32:00)

•    What readers can expect to learn from Jonathan’s book, like the impact parents have on your financial beliefs, and what inspires people to reassess their finances. (0:34:31)

•    The impact of early habits on our finances. (0:38:36)

•    Jonathan’s insights into the financial service industry, its complexity, and how our risk tolerance can shift over time. (0:40:19)

•    Why regret in financial decision-making is virtually unavoidable and the value of writing your money story. (0:44:22)

•    Past and upcoming meetups, feedback from our listeners, and a reminder of our 23 in 23 Reading Challenge. (0:47:42)

 

 

 

Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode:

https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-247-bank-runs-plus-jonathan-clements-on-my-money-journey-episode-discussion/22878

 

Book From Today’s Episode:

My Money Journey: How 30 people found financial freedom - and you can toohttps://amzn.to/439D5Hw

 

Links From Today’s Episode:

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.
 Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/

Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/

Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/

Follow us on Twitter — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind

Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder

Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix

Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore

Jonathan Clements on Twitter — https://twitter.com/clementsmoney

Jonathan Clements on LinkedIn —https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathanclements

Jonathan Clements on Facebook — https://www.facebook.com/ClementsMoney

Jonathan Clements — http://HumbleDollar.com

Episode 55: Jonathan Clements — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/55

'Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity' — https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/261155

'Liquidity Risk, Liquidity Creation, and Financial Fragility: A Theory of Banking' — https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/319552

'Why didn't Canada have a banking crisis in 2008 (or in 1930, or 1907, or . . .)' — https://www.jstor.org/stable/43910017

'Long-Horizon Losses in Stocks, Bonds, and Bills: Evidence from a Broad Sample of Developed Markets' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3964908

 

Human beings are undeniably complex, and what motivates us can often be a mystery, even to ourselves. So, how do we go about gathering and analyzing the data that will help us answer the most fundamental questions about our lives and our purpose? The answers may lie in an unexpectedly rich source of knowledge, our regrets. While regret is likely to have a decidedly negative connotation for most of us, it is also extremely powerful and can teach us a great deal about ourselves and what we value. It is an emotion that is present in all of us, and social scientists (like anthropologists and sociologists) have been fascinated by the subject for decades. Today on the show, we are joined by one such expert, Daniel Pink, author of the book The Power of Regret: How Looking Backward Moves Us Forward. In our conversation, Daniel shares details about the research he conducted for his book, how he determined the four main categories of regret, and what we can learn from our regrets by confronting them head-on. We also discuss Daniel’s 2011 New York Times Bestselling title, Drive: The Surprising Truth About What Motivates Us, and what he thinks about working from home in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. Daniel is an exceptional storyteller and is highly knowledgeable on the subjects of regret, motivation, and the important role they play in our lives. To learn more about the many facets of regret and how it can help you thrive, be sure to tune in today!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

●      Understanding regret as an emotion, why it differs from disappointment, and how regret can help us make better decisions. (0:03:00)

●      The four main types of regret (foundation, boldness, moral, and connections) and the methodology Daniel used to determine them. (0:07:30)

●      The role that outcomes play when it comes to boldness regrets. (0:13:09)

●      Why Daniel believes connection regret is so common, and what regret reveals about our values. (0:14:13)

●      The World Regret Survey that Daniel conducted as a systematic survey of regret, and his findings that regrets of inaction tend to stay with us much longer. (0:17:14)

●      What people can learn from past financial decisions that they regret and the challenge of addressing foundation regrets. (0:20:42)

●      The surprising benefits of regrets and how to learn from them. (0:21:31)

●      How regret anticipation can be used to help people save for retirement. (0:22:46)

●      Daniel’s system for addressing feelings of regret, why it’s important to confront them rather than wallow in them, and the importance of being kind to yourself. (0:24:01)

●      The overwhelming amount of decisions we make in our lives, when to choose the best versus something that is good enough, and how to optimize future regret. (0:27:56)

●      An overview of the many complex factors that motivate people, intrinsic and external motivators, and how Daniel’s research on regret affected his perspective on motivation. (0:31:16)

●      Daniel’s thoughts on working from home when considering autonomy, mastery, purpose, and motivation. (0:37:17)

●      The motivational model that Daniel sets out in his book Drive and some of the common misconceptions he has observed in reporting on his book. (0:39:33)

●      Why people are purpose maximizers, not profit maximizers, and how this should impact the leadership of a company. (0:41:26)

●      Daniel’s response to the question “How do you define success in your life?” and why he doesn’t think about the word ‘success’ very much. (0:47:08)

 

 

 

Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode:

https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-246-daniel-h-pink-how-to-use-regret-episode-discussion/22775

 

Books From Today’s Episode:

The Power of Regrethttps://amzn.to/42HArID

Drive: The Surprising Truth About What Motivates Ushttps://amzn.to/40jDpl7

To Sell Is Humanhttps://amzn.to/3K9M2ci

Free Agent Nationhttps://amzn.to/40knovb

 

Links From Today’s Episode:

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.
 Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/

Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/

Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/

Follow us on Twitter — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind

Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder

Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix

Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore

Daniel H. Pink on Twitter — https://twitter.com/danielpink

Daniel H. Pink — https://www.danpink.com/

Goal-setting is essential for personal and professional growth, helping individuals clarify their priorities, stay focused, and achieve success. We are pleased to welcome guests Samantha Lamas and Danielle Labotka to help us unpack the topic of goal-setting and how it relates to finance. Samantha Lamas is a Senior Behavioural Researcher at Morningstar and a recipient of the Montgomery-Warschauer Award for her research in financial planning. Her work centres on investor engagement and the factors that influence an individual's decisions when it comes to investing and managing their finances. As a Behavioral Scientist at Morningstar, Danielle Labotka examines the impact of various cognitive and linguistic factors on investors’ financial decisions. Her research involves studying investors' behaviours, preferences, and attitudes in both everyday and financial planning situations. In our conversation with Samantha and Danielle, we gain insights into financial behaviour and decision-making, the biggest barriers to goal-setting, what deeper goals are, and how to focus on them. Then, we speak to Mark McGrath, who is licensed in insurance, holds several professional designations, including a Chartered Investment Manager and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP), and has more than a decade of experience in the industry. Mark tells us the emotional story about his dad, what motivated him to share his experience, and why you need to start thinking about retirement now. Finally, we review a past episode with Dennis Moseley Williams, a book from Will Storr, and go through feedback from the Rational Reminder community. Tune in now!

Content Warning: Some of the discussion in this episode is about suicide. If you or someone you know is struggling with thoughts about self-harm, help is available. In Canada: 1.833.456.4566 or at https://suicideprevention.ca/resources/

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

•    How we became acquainted with the Morningstar team and background about our guests. (0:02:29)

•    An outline of the common obstacles faced in identifying the correct goals, and how it impacts financial advisors. (0:06:08)

•    Danielle explains the approach used to analyze qualitative data and how the results compared to the Rational Reminder findings. (0:09:07)

•    How the goals identified changed as respondents progressed through the survey, and insights gained from the process. (0:11:23)

•    The main takeaway from the analysis of how people should approach goal-setting and how financial advisors can leverage the research findings. (0:17:53)

•    Outline of current gaps and what is the next step for behavioural research. (0:20:59)

•    Find out what compelled Mark to share the tweet about his dad and he takes us through the story. (0:23:00)

•    How the experience regarding his dad has influenced his work as a financial advisor. (0:40:50)

•    Mark shares how the experience has impacted his approach to life. (0:42:25)

•    A final takeaway message that Mark has for listeners. (0:44:23)

•    Highlights and key takeaways from a past episode with Dennis Moseley Williams. (0:45:52)

•    This week's book review of The Status Game, and why it is a must-read. (0:48:44)

•    Research findings concerning macro socio-economic status and work ethic. (0:54:03)

•    We discuss interesting news and events, riskless assets, the advantages of Twitter, and the latest reviews for the show. (0:57:05)

 

 

Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode:

https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-245-deeper-goals-and-retiring-with-purpose-discussion-thread/22660

Book From Today’s Episode:

The Status Game: On Human Life and How to Play Ithttps://amzn.to/40vVLix

Links From Today’s Episode:

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.
 Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/

Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/

Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/

Follow us on Twitter — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind

Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder

Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix

Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore

Samantha Lamas on Twitter — https://twitter.com/SamanthaLamas4

Mark McGrath on Twitter — https://twitter.com/MarkMcGrathCFP

Samantha Lamas on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/slamas/

Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/

'Mining for Goals' — http://static.fmgsuite.com/media/documents/8b5abbe8-0bf5-4321-9a4a-e04a82a11597.pdf

When it comes to the world of investing, there are many options available to consumers. The range of financial products available can be overwhelming and confusing. Additionally, investing is not only about the rate of return but also about what you are investing for and why. To help us unpack this complicated subject is Charles Ellis, a highly respected investment consultant and founder of Greenwich Associates, a strategy firm focused on financial institutions. He is also a famous author and has written several books on the topic of finance and investment, such as Winning the Loser's Game which provides readers with insights into making the best financial decisions in an increasingly unpredictable market. In our conversation, we discuss why indexing is the better investment option, how the investment space has changed over time, tailoring your investment decisions to suit your needs and desires, and why looking at the bigger financial picture is essential. We also delve into why investors can be their own worst enemies, what advisors and investors should avoid, the theme of his book Inside Vanguard, various investment strategies, and much more. Tune in and hear insights on indexing, wise investing, and how to win the ultimate game from industry legend Charles Ellis!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

•    Charles explains what he means by ‘a loser's game’ and provides examples. (0:03:51)

•    How the perception of active management has changed since publishing Winning the Loser's Game. (0:08:00)

•    He unpacks how the market and market competition has changed since 1975. (0:10:33)

•    Whether the sentiment towards active management has become too negative. (0:17:24)

•    Discover why Charles thinks indexing is the best and preferred investment option. (0:19:22)

•    His opinion on low-cost systematic strategies that seek higher expected returns in the market by owning riskier stocks. (0:24:55)

•    Why investors and advisors should avoid trying to time or beat the market. (0:27:19)

•    The value and importance of a well-defined investment policy statement. (0:33:34)

•    Find out how investors can protect themselves from themselves. (0:34:58)

•    An underappreciated approach that investors can take to be more successful. (0:36:26)

•    Hear whether fee differentials between index and active strategies are understood well. (0:37:17)

•    Charles shares how his mindset has changed over the course of his career. (0:41:47)

•    Find out if institutions and endowments respect low-cost index investing. (0:42:42)

•    What he thinks about bringing exotic asset classes to retail investors. (0:44:45)

•    Reasons why investment management should be considered a full-time profession. (0:46:50)

•    The biggest opportunities he sees in future for investment management. (0:49:20)

•    Hear about the difference between price discovery and value discovery. (0:50:09)

•    Discover why Vanguard has been so successful as a company. (0:53:27)

•    The theme of his book, Inside Vanguard, and if it relates to other businesses. (0:58:17)

•    Lessons he has learned regarding personal motivation and productivity. (1:00:28)

•    Charles tells us his definition of success. (1:03:35)

•    An outtake from the episode: the role of luck. (1:05:21)

 

 

Participate in our 23 in 23 Reading Challenge:

23 in 23 Reading Challenge — https://rationalreminder.ca/23in23

23 in 23 Reading Challenge on Beanstalk — https://pwlcapital.beanstack.org/

 

Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode:

https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-244-the-losers-game-episode-discussion/22558

 

Books From Today’s Episode:

Winning the Loser's Game: Timeless Strategies for Successful Investinghttps://amzn.to/3FrNKmt

Inside Vanguardhttps://amzn.to/3TlwrcG

What It Takes: Seven Secrets of Success from the World's Greatest Professional Firmshttps://amzn.to/3Thgm7z

Capital: The Story of Long-Term Investment Excellencehttps://amzn.to/3FpiHb5

Figuring It Out: Sixty Years of Answering Investors' Most Important Questionshttps://amzn.to/3LknZZ8

 

Links From Today’s Episode:

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.
 Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/

Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/

Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/

Follow us on Twitter — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind

Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder

Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix

Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore

Debt can play an essential role in financial planning in several ways, such as financing large purchases, building credit, managing cash flow, and leveraging investments. However, it's important to remember that taking on too much debt can also have negative consequences that could impact your financial future. Therefore, it's vital to carefully consider your options and ensure that any debt you take on is manageable and aligns with your overall financial goals. In this episode, we talk about the essential aspects of debt and the role of debt in financial planning, and we unpack the two major forms of debt. Learn about debt in financial planning, consumption smoothing, the mindset and psychology behind debt, the risk that comes with debt, how credit cards impact how people interact with their money, integrated financial planning, and important aspects of mortgages. We also review a past episode with guest Dan Solin and the book, The Five Most Important Questions, which provides readers with a tool for self-assessment and transformation concerning productivity in the workplace.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

•   The role of debt in financial planning and the distinction between good and bad debt. (0:08:16)

•   A brief overview of mortgages, credit cards, and their associated risks. (0:11:31)

•   Consequences of borrowing money at a high-interest rate, and how financial literacy impacts effective debt management. (0:13:20)

•   The psychological aspects related to debt and consumer spending. (0:16:10)

•   Outlining the psychological interactions of established debt on mental well-being. (0:18:15)

•   Credit cards, what they offer, and their psychological effect on paying. (0:22:10)

•   Costs associated with not using a credit card. (0:28:45)

•   Why mortgage debt is considered good debt for the borrower and the different facets of mortgages to consider. (0:32:48)

•   The difference between fixed and adjustable mortgage rates and which is better. (0:37:25)

•   Highlights and key takeaways from a past episode with Dan Solin. (0:46:06)

•   A review of the book, The Five Most Important Questions and why we recommend it. (0:47:47)

•   How the questions from the book relate to household decision-making. (0:51:18)

•   A testament to Dan Wheeler and his contribution to the field of finance. (0:52:55)

•   Recent interviews with Ben, upcoming guests, other interesting financial content, and our book recommendations. (0:56:33)

•   A 23 in 23 book challenge update, feedback on the show, and upcoming meetups. (01:01:35)

 

 

 

Participate in our 23 in 23 Reading Challenge:

23 in 23 Reading Challenge — https://rationalreminder.ca/23in23

23 in 23 Reading Challenge on Beanstalk — https://pwlcapital.beanstack.org/

 

Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode:

https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-243-the-role-of-debt-in-financial-planning-discussion-thread/22433

 

Links From Today’s Episode:

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.

Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/

Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/

Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/

Follow us on Twitter — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind

Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder

Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix

Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore

 

Extra References:

The role of debt

'Life Cycle, Individual Thrift, and the Wealth of Nations' — https://www.jstor.org/stable/1813352

'Diversification Across Time' — https://jpm.pm-research.com/content/39/2/73

'Debt literacy, financial experiences, and over indebtedness' — https://www.researchgate.net/publication/282436829_Debt_Literacy_Financial_Experiences_and_Over_Indebtedness

'Restoring Rational Choice: The Challenge of Consumer Financial Regulation' — https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/campbell/files/elylecturejan182016.pdf

'Attitudes towards Debt and Debt Behavior' — https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/sjoe.12419

'Expenditure Cascades' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1690612

'Consumer debt and satisfaction in life' — https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341564180_Consumer_debt_and_satisfaction_in_life

'Good credit, bad credit: The differential role of the sources of debt in life satisfaction' — https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/joca.12388

'Debt and Overindebtedness: Psychological Evidence and its Policy Implications' — https://spssi.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/sipr.12074

'Winning the Battle but Losing the War: The Psychology of Debt Management' — https://www.researchgate.net/publication/249644425_Winning_the_Battle_But_Losing_the_War_The_Psychology_of_Debt_Management

'Reducing debt improves psychological functioning and changes decision-making in the poor' —https://www.researchgate.net/publication/332472709_Reducing_debt_improves_psychological_functioning_and_changes_decision-making_in_the_poor

 

Credit cards

'The Effect of Payment Transparency on Consumption: Quasi-Experiments from the Field' — https://www.jstor.org/stable/40216497

'Always Leave Home Without It: A Further Investigation of the Credit-Card Effect on Willingness to Pay' — https://www.researchgate.net/publication/233496571_Always_Leave_Home_Without_It_A_Further_Investigation_of_the_Credit-Card_Effect_on_Willingness_to_Pay

'Present-Biased Preferences and Credit Card Borrowing' — https://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/mygsb/faculty/research/pubfiles/3531/AEJ_Meier_Sprenger.pdf

'How Credit Card Payments Increase Unhealthy Food Purchases: Visceral Regulation of Vices' — https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/657331

'Distributional Effects of Payment Card Pricing and Merchant Cost Pass-through in the United States and Canada' — https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2021/02/staff-working-paper-2021-8/

'Popular Personal Financial Advice versus the Professors' — https://www.nber.org/papers/w30395

'Buy Now, Pay Later Credit: User Characteristics and Effects on Spending Patterns' — https://www.nber.org/papers/w30508

 

Mortgages

'Report of the Household Finance Committee' — https://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/PublicationReport/Pdfs/HFCRA28D0415E2144A009112DD314ECF5C07.PDF

'Household Risk Management and Optimal Mortgage Choice' —https://www.jstor.org/stable/25053944

'Failure to refinance' — https://www.nber.org/papers/w20401

'A Model of Mortgage Default' — https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/campbell/files/mortdefault13022014.pdf

 

The intersection between economics and psychology makes the subject of personal finance complex. To help us elucidate this topic is personal finance reporter at the Globe and Mail and the author of the bestselling book "Money Like You Mean It, Personal Finance Tactics for the Real World.", Erica Alini. Her journey into finance journalism began when she started working for the Wall Street Journal immediately after the financial crisis of 2007/08. Since then, Erica has become an accomplished writer and journalist, having worked for many respected organizations. She is also the author of a best-selling book, Money Like You Mean It, which provides readers with a nuanced understanding of the economic forces that shape financial struggles and how to overcome them. In this conversation, we talk to Erica about the importance of knowing yourself and your debt, the money bucket system, and the definition of financial abuse. We also discuss the various types of debt traps people should avoid, the dangers of micropayments, and what to be aware of when looking for a mortgage, as well as advice for finding a reliable mortgage broker, the avalanche versus the snowball model, and much more. Tune in to discover how to take back control of your finances and avoid the burden of debt with personal finance expert, Erica Alini.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

•    Why Erica thinks Canadians have so much household debt. (0:02:24)

•    Strategies that people can implement to avoid the debt trap. (0:04:58)

•    Erica’s opinion on budgeting as a tool to manage spending. (0:08:34)

•    How the ‘bucketing model’ changes for a couple as opposed to an individual. (0:12:10)

•    How couples with different incomes should share expenses. (0:14:17)

•    Signs of an unhealthy financial relationship between partners. (0:17:06)

•    The amount of money an emergency fund should have. (0:21:17)

•    What consumers should know about the different debt products available. (0:24:08)

•    Discover the downside of taking a mortgage with the lowest interest rate. (0:33:55)

•    Whether or not an independent mortgage broker is better than a bank. (0:38:05)

•    Important insights about credit scores. (0:39:51)

•    Whether people should rent or buy property. (0:45:13)

•    How the traditional sense of a good job with sufficient income has changed. (0:50:34)

•    Erica’s approach to explaining the risk of investing in stocks. (0:56:46)

•    Insights about the math of a financial decision versus the psychology. (0:58:25)

•    How Erica defines success in her life. (1:00:29)

 

 

Extra: Questions to ask a mortgage broker:

1.     What kind of penalty will you have to pay for breaking your contract?

2.     Is the cap on your lump-sum payments 10 percent or 20 percent of your mortgage balance?

3.     Will you be able to make lump-sum payments any time or just once a year?

4.     Can you double your payments?

Participate in our 23 in 23 Reading Challenge:

23 in 23 Reading Challenge — https://rationalreminder.ca/23in23

23 in 23 Reading Challenge on Beanstalk — https://pwlcapital.beanstack.org/

Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode:

https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-242-erica-alini-personal-finance-tactics-for-the-real-world-discussion-thread/22326

Book From Today’s Episode:

Money Like You Mean It https://www.dundurn.com/books_/t22117/a9781459748675-money-like-you-mean-it

Links From Today’s Episode:

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.

Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/

Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/

Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/

Follow us on Twitter — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind

Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder

Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix

Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore

Erica Alini on Twitter — https://twitter.com/ealini

Today we are spending most of the episode going further into the basic concepts that ground good financial practices and the personal finance topics that are often taken for granted. The three main areas we unpack in this episode are the cost of living, savings capacity, and emergency funds, and though these can be viewed as basic ideas, there are always areas of the simplest variety that deserve more attention. Listeners can also expect to hear a little more about what our role as financial advisors constitutes on a daily basis, as we respond to an audience member's question about how to conceptualize the profession. We welcome Dr. Wendall Mascarenhas back to the show for a brief cameo in which he shares his reading habits and approach with us, which contrasts with some of the opinions often expressed by other guests, so make sure to stay tuned in for that. We also find time for a quick recap of an old episode we had with Rick Ferri and a book review of Rethink Lead Generation by Tom Shapiro.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

•    Discussing the cost of living and why an accurate picture of your expenses is so important. (0:04:08)

•    Working out your saving capacity and when and how to save. (0:21:32)

•    General advice for emergency funds and further considerations for households. (0:32:51)

•    Recapping our episode with Rick Ferri on his index investing philosophy and the lasting impact of John Bogle. (0:40:21)

•    This week's book review of Rethink Lead Generation by Tom Shapiro. (0:42:26)

•    Dr. Wendall Mascarenhas talks about his reading habits and his prioritization of reading for pleasure. (0:49:23)

•    A few favourite book recommendations from Dr. Wendall Mascarenhas. (0:58:12)

•    Current debates around ChatGPT and the sources of its information. (1:06:18)

•    Information about upcoming meetups for the Rational Reminder community. (1:09:38)

•    Further explorations on our recent goals survey and the input we received from Morningstar. (1:11:00)

 

 

Participate in our 23 in 23 Reading Challenge:

23 in 23 Reading Challenge — https://rationalreminder.ca/23in23

23 in 23 Reading Challenge on Beanstalk — https://pwlcapital.beanstack.org/

 

Links From Today’s Episode:

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.

Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/

Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/

Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/

Follow us on Twitter — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind

Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder

Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix

Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore

Dr. Wendall Mascarenhas — https://www.fcos.ca/meet-dr-mascarenhas/

Teeth & Titanium Podcast — https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/teeth-titanium/id1514989809

Extra References:

 

Savings capacity

'Popular Personal Financial Advice versus the Professors' — https://www.nber.org/papers/w30395

'The Life-Cycle Model Implies That Most Young People Should Not Save for Retirement' — https://www.aei.org/research-products/journal-publication/the-life-cycle-model-implies-that-most-young-people-should-not-save-for-retirement/

'Exponential-Growth Bias and Lifecycle Consumption' — https://www.jstor.org/stable/43965317

'Save More Tomorrow™: Using Behavioral Economics to Increase Employee Saving' — https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/380085

Emergency fund

'What Matters to Individual Investors? Evidence from the Horse's Mouth' — https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jofi.12895

'Millionaires Speak: What Drives Their Personal Investment Decisions?' — https://www.nber.org/papers/w27969

'Emergency savings for low-income consumers' — https://www.irp.wisc.edu/publications/focus/pdfs/foc301c.pdf

'Emergency Saving and Household Hardship' — https://www.researchgate.net/publication/269468202_Emergency_Saving_and_Household_Hardship

'Savings Policy and Decisionmaking in Low-Income Households' — https://www.researchgate.net/publication/289069441_Savings_Policy_and_Decisionmaking_in_Low-Income_Households

'Insufficient Funds: Savings, Assets, Credit, and Banking Among Low-Income Households' — https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7758/9781610445887

'Financially Fragile Households: Evidence and Implications' — https://www.nber.org/papers/w17072

'One in four Canadians are unable to cover an unexpected expense of $500' —https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/230213/dq230213b-eng.htm

'Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds?' — https://www.jstor.org/stable/2677900

‘Mental accounting matters' — https://people.bath.ac.uk/mnsrf/Teaching%202011/Thaler-99.pdf

'The Bucket Approach for Retirement: A Suboptimal Behavioral Trick?' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3274499

'Should Households Establish Emergency Funds' —https://www.proquest.com/openview/042e8ea8f8e3986ec6c93e5cfca265c0/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=38873

'Is an All Cash Emergency Fund Strategy Appropriate for All Investors?' — https://www.financialplanningassociation.org/article/all-cash-emergency-fund-strategy-appropriate-all-investors

'Building emergency savings through employer-sponsored rainy-day savings accounts' — https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1086/708170

'Double Mental Discounting: When a Single Price Promotion Feels Twice as Nice' — https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1509/jmr.15.0559

'The Role of Mental Accounting in Household Spending and Investing Decisions'  — https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/9781119440895.ch6

'Emergency Savings and Financial Security: Insights from the Making Ends Meet Survey and Consumer Credit Panel' — https://www.consumerfinance.gov/data-research/research-reports/emergency-savings-financial-security-insights-from-making-ends-meet-survey-and-consumer-credit-panel/

 

The decisions we make may be further out of our control than we’d like to imagine. Today we are joined by Professor Eric J. Johnson to discuss choice architecture and its role in financial decision-making. Eric is a decision science expert and the author of the book, The Elements of Choice: Why the Way We Decide Matters. In this episode, we learn about the various factors that impact not only decision-making but the effort required to make a decision. Eric shares his philosophy on free will and shares advice for making important decisions and guiding clients to find the right choice as a financial advisor. Tune in to discover how to minimize the influence of the choice architect and take charge of your decisions!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

•    Introducing Professor Eric J. Johnson and this week’s topic: financial decision-making. (0:00:26)

•    The hidden partner that accompanies us when we make decisions. (0:03:42)

•    How design choices impact our decisions. (0:04:54)

•    The plausible path: what it is and how we choose it. (0:06:00)

•    Advice for making important decisions. (0:08:21)

•    The impact of recent events on decision-making. (0:10:33)

•    How to be your own choice architect. (0:12:15)

•    Factors impacting the effort required to make a decision. (0:13:22)

•    The impact of default choices and what influences them. (0:16:09)

•    How choice architecture can help people find the right choice. (0:20:17)

•    The influence of sorting on what people choose. (0:25:18)

•    How the order of options being presented and the way they’re described impact decisions. (0:26:54)

•    How exponential growth bias influences long-term decisions and how financial advisors can help clients understand the impact. (0:31:45)

•    The effectiveness of Netflix as a choice engine, the role choice engines play in educating users, and the value of just-in-time education. (0:35:04)

•    The impact of social media on people’s attention and intentions. (0:40:08)

•    Eric shares his philosophy on free will and the factors impacting our choices. (0:42:55)

•    How to minimize the influence of the choice architect. (0:44:16)

•     What financial advisors can do to be most useful to their clients. (0:46:00)

•    How Eric defines success in his life. (0:50:12)

 

 

Participate in our 23 in 23 Reading Challenge:

23 in 23 Reading Challenge — https://rationalreminder.ca/23in23

23 in 23 Reading Challenge on Beanstalk — https://pwlcapital.beanstack.org/

 

Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode:

https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-240-prof-eric-j-johnson-choice-architecture-and-financial-decisions-discussion-thread/22037

 

Book From Today’s Episode:

The Elements of Choice — https://theelementsofchoice.com/

 

Links From Today’s Episode:

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.

Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/

Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/

Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/

Follow us on Twitter — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind

Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder

Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix

Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore

Prof. Eric J. Johnson on Twitter — https://twitter.com/profericjohnson

 

The concept of financial math is another foundational element of investing and good economic decision-making, and today we are carrying on the recent string of shows dealing with these kinds of fundamental aspects. First, we have a look at the central idea of the time value of money, and how this plays into many areas of our finances, such as retirement planning, spending, investing, and so on. From there, the conversation goes on to cover exponential functions, the tradeoffs between saving and spending, and regrets. Today's 60-second episode recap is of the great conversation we had with David Blitzer back on Episode 54, and we also do a quick book review of the potentially life-changing How to Live on 24 Hours a Day. We finish off this punchy episode with some news from the community and some thoughts on the ways in which competition and repetition can improve a skill.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

    Introducing the time value of money, as well as the concepts of compounding and discounting. (0:03:07)

    Applying financial math in different ways to varied questions. (0:11:34)

    Lessons from Cameron's first business selling worms. (0:18:15)

    The challenges and biases associated with exponential functions. (0:20:27)

    Spending and saving; illuminating the reality of the tradeoffs. (0:27:26)

    The biggest problems of foundational regrets. (0:35:40)

    Looking back on the episode with David Blitzer on indexing. (0:42:33)

    Reviewing the 1908 book, How to Live on 24 Hours a Day. (0:44:25)

    TV shows, podcast reviews, updates from the community and more. (0:49:05)

    Incentives and leaderboards; unpacking the impacts of practice and competition. (0:56:43)

 

 

 

Participate in our 23 in 23 Reading Challenge:

23 in 23 Reading Challenge — https://rationalreminder.ca/23in23

23 in 23 Reading Challenge on Beanstalk — https://pwlcapital.beanstack.org/

 

Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode:

https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-239-the-math-of-financial-planning-discussion-thread/21899

 

Book From Today’s Episode:

How to Live on Twenty-Four Hours a Day https://amzn.to/3JLyDaz

 

Links From Today’s Episode:

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.

Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/

Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/

Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/

Follow us on Twitter — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind

Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder

Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix

Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore

 

A large portion of what we talk about on this show boils down to decision-making, and today we have our focus squarely on the fundamentals of this process. Professor Ralph Keeney joins us to discuss some of the simplest and most profound elements of decisions, and why we so often miss these aspects. Ralph is a true expert on decision analysis, and his systematic process for decision-making, as laid out in his new book, Give Yourself a Nudge, has truly life-altering potential for anyone looking to improve their future. The book and this conversation are jam-packed with insightful and understandable ideas and examples, including clarifying objectives, the vital role of our values, generating alternatives, and a comparison between decision problems and decision opportunities. Ralph lays out a great way to get started on the path to better decisions, so make sure to join us to hear it all.  

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • The focus of Ralph's research and how he articulates the importance of our conscious decisions. (0:03:48)
  • The shortcomings of the trial and error approach that many of us naturally employ. (0:10:46)
  • First steps towards being a better decision-maker; using personal decisions for practice. (0:13:08)
  • Ralph explains his conception and use of the idea of 'nudges'. (0:14:30)
  • A better awareness of the often-neglected front end of decision-making. (0:17:38)
  • An explanation of Ralph's value-focused decision-making process. (0:22:25)
  • Mistakes made around retirement decisions. (0:30:30)
  • Why clarifying your personal decision values can be so difficult. (0:32:15)
  • The process of translating values into objectives. (0:36:11)
  • Ralph's important question around the different possible situations in the future. (0:41:49)
  • Simple processes and common pitfalls for generating alternatives. (0:43:19)
  • Exploring decisions that require third-party permission or commitment. (0:47:59)
  • Differentiating between decision problems and decision opportunities. (0:52:27)
  • The most important concepts for embodying value-focussed decision-making. (0:57:44)
  • The role of financial advisors in aiding their clients to make good decisions. (1:03:28)
  • Application of these ideas toward living a good life. (1:07:46)
  • Ralph's simple definition of success in his own life. (1:10:53)

 

 

Participate in our 23 in 23 Reading Challenge:

23 in 23 Reading Challenge — https://rationalreminder.ca/23in23

23 in 23 Reading Challenge on Beanstalk — https://pwlcapital.beanstack.org/

 

Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode:

https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-238-prof-ralph-keeney-decision-analysis-and-value-focused-thinking-discussion-thread/21795

 

Books From Today’s Episode:

Give Yourself a Nudgehttps://amzn.to/3WKMwZx

Smart Choiceshttps://amzn.to/3Ho0vP6

Value-Focused Thinkinghttps://amzn.to/3HgC7yH

Decisions with Multiple Objectiveshttps://amzn.to/3DywYRH

 

Links From Today’s Episode:

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.

Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/

Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/

Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/

Follow us on Twitter — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind

Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder

Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix

Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore

Prof. Ralph Keeney — https://ralphkeeney.com/

 

Identifying your personal values is the foundation for making future decisions. In this episode, we discuss the profound ways in which personal values impact financial decision-making and share concrete steps to identify both your strategic and means objectives. Ben candidly shares his own objectives and expands on the other considerations involved in making major decisions. We then jump to the less abstract topic of 2022 returns, providing a thorough overview of the tilts and their consequences, followed by a brief summary of an early episode with Shane Parrish. In the latter half of this episode, we are joined by Zoobean co-founder and CEO Felix Lloyd to talk about Beanstack, the tech platform for reading, and Readwise co-founder Daniel Doyon. We also tackle the slightly left-field topic of marketing from a behavioural science standpoint through the lens of Nancy Harhut’s tellingly-titled book, Using Behavioral Science in Marketing. Tune in for upcoming developments in the Rational Reminder community, and to discover how to make financial decisions that align with who you are and who you want to become!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • How personal values impact financial decision-making. (0:00:25)
  • How to identify your life’s values and objectives. (0:07:21)
  • The significance of means objectives and strategic objectives, and how to identify them. (0:16:25)
  • Ben’s strategic life objectives and means objectives. (0:18:27)
  • Other considerations when making major decisions. (0:19:14)
  • An overview of 2022 returns. (0:22:43)
  • A summary of episode 19 with Shane Parrish. (0:28:59)
  • A brief interview with Zoobean co-founder and CEO Felix Lloyd to talk about Beanstack, the tech platform for reading. (0:31:15)
  • Cameron’s review of Using Behavioral Science in Marketing by Nancy Harhut. (0:43:09)
  • What sells (from a behavioural science standpoint). (0:47:15)
  • A brief interview with Readwise co-founder Daniel Doyon. (0:52:52)
  • Summaries of recent Freakonomics, 10% Happier, and Capital Allocators (1:04:05)
  • Developments in the Rational Reminder community. (1:05:30)
  • Upcoming podcast guests and recent podcast reviews. (1:10:25)

  

 

Participate in our 23 in 23 Reading Challenge:

23 in 23 Reading Challenge — https://rationalreminder.ca/23in23

23 in 23 Reading Challenge on Beanstalk — https://pwlcapital.beanstack.org/

 

Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode:

https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-237-who-are-you-and-who-do-you-want-to-be-discussion-thread/21665

 

Book From Today’s Episode:

Using Behavioral Science in Marketinghttps://amzn.to/3wuDnJO

 

Links From Today’s Episode:

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.

Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/

Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/

Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/

Follow us on Twitter — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind

Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder

Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix

Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore

Daniel Doyon on Twitter — https://twitter.com/deadly_onion

Felix Lloyd on Twitter — https://twitter.com/fblloyd

Felix Lloyd on LinkedIn —  https://www.linkedin.com/in/fblloyd/

Beanstack — https://www.beanstack.com/

Zoobean on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/zoobean

Readwise — https://readwise.io/

 

 

 

Our guest today, Harold Gellar, is a lawyer who helps clients dealing with fraud and negligence perpetrated by financial advisors, and is a passionate advocate for investors and their rights. Tuning in you’ll hear details of some of the most common issues Harold has come across in his work, along with his practical advice for financial advisors and investors. We discuss the importance of clear communication between advisors and their clients, the concept of KYC (Know Your Client), and simple steps investors can take to ensure that their advice is properly understood by their clients. Harold goes on to provide an outline of factors that could make individuals vulnerable to negligent financial advice (such as marital problems or a sudden health crisis) and how to gain perspective in extreme situations. We also discuss the key differences between salespeople and financial advisors, the type of credentials investors should be looking for, and how regulation needs to be modernized in Canada for investors to be properly protected. Harold has been in this industry for a long time and is immensely knowledgeable on the subject of fraud and negligent investment advice.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • An overview of Harold’s practice and how he helps clients get their money back. (0:03:22)
  • The difference between salespeople and financial advisors and the vulnerability of investors. (0:05:40)
  • Practical advice for investors to ensure their financial advisor is doing due diligence and the concept of KYP (Know Your Product). (0:10:46)
  • The concept of KYC (Know Your Client) and how to be sure your financial advisor understands you as a client. (0:15:32)
  • The type of individuals who are particularly vulnerable to negligent financial advice, and why we can all be vulnerable in certain situations. (0:18:33)
  • The role of the trusted contact person in Canada specifically, and how to know when to take the advice of your financial advisor. (0:25:13)
  • Harold’s thoughts on what is causing Canada’s slow adoption of low-cost index funds. (0:32:27)
  • How financial advisors earn money and why we need an updated regulatory system. (0:34:21)
  • Harold’s approach to crypto and why he classifies it as a speculative asset. (0:41:50)
  • Examples of negligence when the investment made was too conservative and why clear communication between client and advisor is crucial. (0:44:20)
  • The worst insurance products that Harold has come across. (0:46:10)
  • What financial advisors should be doing to make sure that their advice is properly understood by their clients. (0:49:23)
  • What investors can do to make sure that they understand what the advisor is saying to them. (0:51:16)
  • Ontario’s recent implementation of title regulation for financial planners and advisors and some of its key flaws. (0:52:16)
  • The credentials that investors should expect from their financial advisors. (0:55:34)
  • The value of good advice when it comes to financial planning and investment, and what motivates Harold to be such a strong investor advocate. (0:56:56)

 

 

Participate in our 23 in 23 Reading Challenge:

23 in 23 Reading Challenge — https://rationalreminder.ca/23in23

23 in 23 Reading Challenge on Beanstalk — https://pwlcapital.beanstack.org/

 

Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode:

https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-236-harold-geller-i-sue-financial-advisors-discussion-thread/21500

 

Links From Today’s Episode:

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.

Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/

Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/

Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/

Follow us on Twitter — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind

Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder

Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix

Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore

Harold on Linkedin — https://www.linkedin.com/in/harold-geller-25094033/

Geller Law — http://gellerlaw.ca

'The Misguided Beliefs of Financial Advisors' — https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jofi.12995

'Retail Financial Advice: Does One Size Fit All?' — https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jofi.12514

As we kick off the new year, we wanted to look back at our biggest areas of learning from last year. So this episode serves as a great companion piece to our year-end recap from a couple of weeks ago, but the focus here is on the personal impact that specific guests, ideas, and topics had on each of our lives. We cover ICAPM thinking, the nature of money, financial literacy, setting financial goals, the history of index funds, and more. For the second half of the show, we are joined by the amazing Shaun Tomson, former world surfing champion, author, and renowned speaker. Shaun is here to talk a bit about his latest book, co-authored with Noah benShea, entitled The Surfer and the Sage. We get to hear about Shaun's belief in the power of words, the specific conditions that can enforce this power, the lessons he has taken from a life in the ocean, and how the tragedy of losing his son influenced his life's trajectory. Join us to catch it all.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • Differentiating between the CAPM and ICAPM theories. (0:08:02)
  • Long-run risks in stocks and bonds; demystifying safety claims.  (0:14:46)
  • Further illumination on the concept of money and how to think about it. (0:24:27)
  • Learnings around the empirical side of financial literacy. (0:31:00)
  • Improved setting of financial goals and common mistakes that many of us make. (0:32:24)
  • Filling in the gaps in an understanding of the history of index funds. (0:35:57)
  • A one-minute recap of our episode with Allison Schrager from last year. (0:37:47)
  • A quick review of Shaun Tomson's book, The Surfer and the Sage. (0:39:38)
  • Shaun explains the significance of the wave as a metaphor. (0:43:28)
  • The tragic passing of Shaun's son in 2006 and how this redirected his life's purpose. (0:45:10)
  • Shaun explains his CODE method for transformation. (0:49:35)
  • The significance of the structure of the book and the motivation behind it. (0:56:38)
  • Unpacking the importance of purpose when making financial decisions. (0:59:40)
  • Shaun's tactical recommendations; resilience, hope, optimism, and discipline. (1:05:44)
  • Upcoming book recommendations for our 23 in 23 Reading Challenge. (1:19:22)

 

Participate in our 23 in 23 Reading Challenge:

23 in 23 Reading Challenge — https://rationalreminder.ca/23in23

23 in 23 Reading Challenge on Beanstalk — https://pwlcapital.beanstack.org/

 

Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode:

https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-235-top-learnings-from-2022-plus-23-in-23-special-guest-shaun-tomson-discussion-thread/21332 

 

Books From Today’s Episode:

The Surfer and the Sage: A Guide to Survive and Ride Life's Waves https://amzn.to/3GytVJV

The Code: The of Power of "I Will" https://amzn.to/3ZEMUvg

Surfer's Code: 12 Simple Lessons for Riding Through Life https://amzn.to/3VZIcFb

 

Links From Today’s Episode:

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.

Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ 

Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/

Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/

Follow us on Twitter — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind

Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder

Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix

Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore

Shaun Tomson on Twitter — https://twitter.com/shauntomson

Shaun Tomson on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/shauntomson/

Shaun Tomson on Linkedin — https://www.linkedin.com/in/shaun-tomson-42a57213/

Shaun Tomson — https://shauntomson.com/

Shaun Tomson's I Will Form — https://buzzy.buzz/kiosk/3676e3c13ae389a80dd5774d

'The Code Method for Families' — https://shauntomson.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/CODE-METHOD-FOR-FAMILIES.pdf

‘The Surfer and the Sage: Trailer' — https://www.dropbox.com/s/wn0q3r0gf006tl6/TrailerUSETHISONE.mp4?dl=0

'Generating Objectives: Can Decision Makers Articulate What They Want?' — https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/mnsc.1070.0754?journalCode=mnsc

'Eyes on the Prize: The Preference to Invest Resources in Goals Over Means' — https://www.anderson.ucla.edu/documents/areas/fac/marketing/Shaddy/investing_goals.pdf

'Counteracting obstacles with optimistic predictions' — https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20121310/

'Immediate Rewards Predict Adherence to Long-Term Goals' — https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0146167216676480

'Stocks for the Long Run? Sometimes Yes. Sometimes No.' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3805927

 

Few people have impacted the way the world works, and today, we have the privilege of speaking to one of them. Professor Robert C. Merton is the Distinguished Professor of Finance at The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Sloan School of Management and Professor Emeritus at Harvard University. He has a Ph.D. in Economics from MIT and is currently the Resident Scientist at Dimensional Fund Advisors. Professor Merton was awarded the Alfred Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 1997 for his work establishing a new method to determine the value of derivatives. He also created the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM), a popular tool to help advisors make informed financial decisions and understand market trends. In our incredible conversation, we cover portfolio theory, moving from Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM), and how financial models work. We also discuss the difference between the value of your capital and the value of the cash flow that can come from that capital, why size can't be a factor, what aspects to consider when calculating the worth of an account, and the definition of market efficiency. We also delve into retirement, how to safely invest for it, what pitfalls to avoid, and how retirement funds may change over time. He also shares his opinion about some popular financial advise and what the roles of financial advisors should be. For all this and more, tune in to hear from the man behind the model and Nobel laureate, Professor Robert C. Merton!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • We start with Professor Merton describing the concept of market efficiency. (0:04:28)
  • He explains the basics of his ICAPM asset pricing model. (0:09:10)
  • How portfolio theory changes when moving from single-period to multi-period. (0:10:46)
  • Hear a practical example of expected returns changing over time. (0:14:15)
  • Why ICAPM is dependent on the sensitivities to risk of an individual investor. (0:22:52)
  • Find out how to determine if the correct proxy has been identified for a risk. (0:25:34)
  • Learn how home country bias fits into portfolio choice from an ICAPM hedging perspective. (0:31:54)
  • The definition of a risk-free asset and how it changes with time. (0:33:24)
  • What influence the time horizon should have on the mix between stocks and bonds in an investor’s portfolio. (0:35:33)
  • His opinion about young investors using leverage to make investments. (0:41:50)
  • What people should be doing to get more accessibility to leverage. (0:47:39)
  • Professor Merton tells us who should focus on value stocks and growth stocks. (0:51:34)
  • Discover what makes retirement income a difficult problem to solve and tips to ensure your retirement. (0:56:47)
  • We discuss using Monte Carlo simulations to estimate how much people can spend in retirement. (1:09:04)
  • He provides insight into how to get more from your retirement investment. (1:13:04)
  • Whether nominal annuities are considered low-risk assets for retirees. (1:16:48)
  • An overview of the impact mathematical models have had on the finance sector. (1:20:12)
  • Areas of finance practice that are lagging behind the financial models. (1:27:35)
  • Hear what popular financial advice Professor Merton thinks is misguided. (1:33:22)
  • Ways his work on option pricing has impacted society. (1:41:26)
  • The role he sees for financial advisors. (1:45:42)
  • Why he decided to join Dimensional Fund Advisors. (1:48:54)
  • Professor Merton unpacks the definition of product design. (1:52:14)
  • Stay listening for the extended discussion. (1:57:24)

 

Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode:

https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-234-prof-robert-c-merton-icapm-retirement-and-models-in-finance-discussion-thread/20748  

 

Links From Today’s Episode:

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.

Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/

Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/

Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/

Follow us on Twitter — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind

Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder

Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix

Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore

Prof. Robert C. Merton — https://robertcmerton.com/

 

 

It has been an amazing year for the podcast. We have had some incredible guests during 2022 who have provided us and listeners with insights and thought-provoking ideas about the world of finance. We covered a lot of ground and to wrap up the year we decided to recap some of our favourite moments for listeners. In this episode, we highlight the many themes covered during this year, such as the basics of investing, stocks and bonds, how to make wise investment decisions, gender inequality, asset management, index funds, market trends, and portfolio management. We also highlight some of the indirectly topics indirectly related to finance such as the value of happiness, enjoying the pursuit of happiness, the importance of goal setting, and much more. Join us as we reflect on some of our best moments from the year and provide an overview of the many vital lessons we have learned in this final episode of the year for the Rational Reminder podcast.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • Mac McQuown explains how the data revolution changed the game of investing. (0:09:05)
  • Robin Wigglesworth and tracking the performance of portfolios in the 60s. (0:12:56)
  • Professor Fama shares what it is like to see the impact of his academic work on the practice of asset management. (0:16:02)
  • Gus Sauter tells us about the role the University of Chicago played in the index fund revolution. (0:18:41)
  • Professor Fama unpacks what it means for a market to be efficient. (0:20:52)
  • Gerard O’Reilly and the differences in the types of market strategies available. (0:24:27)
  • Professor Betermier shares his research from multiple papers concerning tendencies towards growth and value stocks. (0:28:50)
  • Eduardo Repetto tells us whether having a portfolio consisting of 100% small-cap value stocks makes sense. (0:36:06)
  • Professor Koijen explains whether index funds distort market prices and make markets less efficient. (0:40:30)
  • Professors Berk and van Binsbergen discuss if it is possible to find skilled fund managers before they are absorbed by their fund. (0:43:44)
  • Professor Cederburg explains how data sets can be upwardly biased and why you need to be aware of it when looking at data. (0:48:15)
  • Bill Janeway describes the three-player game regarding investments. (0:50:51)
  • Professor Phalippou compares the performance of private equity relative to public equities. (0:53:42)
  • Antti Ilmanen tells us how investors can stick with an investment strategy during times of low performance. (0:59:10)
  • Professor List tells us how often people should check their investment portfolios. (1:01:56)
  • Leonard Mlodinow explains how the rational mind and the emotional mind are intertwined. (1:04:56)
  • Professor Edmans’s Grow the Pie and making the world a better place. (1:07:27)
  • Rebecca Walker outlines the effect learning about money has on people. (1:11:15)
  • Colleen Ammerman describes the current state of women in the workplace. (1:13:21)
  • Find out why the pursuit of a goal should be enjoyable with Professor Fishbach. (1:15:40)
  • Andrew Hallam talks about life satisfaction after middle age and how to get there sooner. (1:20:28)
  • Jay van Bavel details the effect of group identity on goal setting. (1:23:08)
  • Professor Frank unpacks the relationship between the consumption of luxury goods and happiness. (1:26:55)
  • Professor Bohns provides insight into why people are under-confident in their social lives. (1:31:01)
  • Professor Fama reveals how many hours a day the brain can handle deep work. (1:34:24)
  • Cassie Holmes and why happiness is a good thing from a scientific perspective. (1:35:30)
  • Colonel Chris Hadfield shares the lesson he learned as an astronaut that he applies to his everyday life. (1:38:52)

 

Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode:

https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-233-a-year-in-review-discussion-thread/20856

 

Links From Today’s Episode:

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.
Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ 

Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/

Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/

Follow us on Twitter — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind

Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder

Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix

Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore

Episode 182: John 'Mac' McQuown — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/182

Episode 184: Robin Wigglesworth — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/184

Episode 186: Andrew Hallam — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/186

Episode 188: Professor Fishbach — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/188

Episode 192: Professor Edmans — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/192

Episode 194: Bill Janeway — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/194

Episode 196: Professor Betermier — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/196

Episode 198: Gerard O’Reilly — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/198

Episode 200: Professor Eugene Fama — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/200

Episode 202: Antti Ilmanen — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/202

Episode 204: Professor List — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/204

Episode 206: Professor Bohns — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/206

Episode 208: Rebecca Walker — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/208

Episode 210: Professor Phalippou — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/210

Episode 212: Professor Koijen — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/212

Episode 214: Jay Van Bavel — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/214

Episode 216: Gus Sauter — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/216

Episode 218: Colleen Ammerman — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/218

Episode 220: Professors Berk and van Binsbergen — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/220

Episode 222: Cassie Holmes — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/222

Episode 224: Professor Cederburg — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/224

Episode 226: Colonel Chris Hadfield — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/226

Episode 228: Eduardo Repetto — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/228

Episode 230: Professor Frank — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/230

Gaining financial literacy is critical if you want to thrive in today’s society. And yet, only about a third of the global population can be described as being financially literate. Joining us today to unpack the concept of financial literacy and its impact is Dr. Annamaria Lusardi, Professor of Economics and Accountancy at George Washington University. Dr. Lusardi has taught Economics for over 20 years, and her passion for financial literacy is reflected in everything she does. Her career has been instrumental in furthering the cause of increased global financial literacy, from being the Founder and Academic Director of the Global Financial Literacy Excellence Center, to serving as the co-chair of the G53 Financial Literacy and Personal Finance Research Network. In our conversation, Dr. Lusardi breaks down the definition of financial literacy, how it’s measured by leading experts across the world, along with some of the key differences we see between people in richer and poorer countries. She explains why financial advice isn’t a replacement for financial literacy and provides guidance on what we should be doing to educate various population groups. We also discuss how global trends have created an increased need for financial literacy as an essential skill, especially for young people, and why greater global financial literacy is beneficial to everyone, including governments and wealthier individuals. Tune in as we delve into the many facets of financial literacy and the important role it plays in our collective health, happiness, and success!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • Lusardi defines the concept of financial literacy and the importance of being able to apply it as a skill. (0:04:30)
  • How experts measure financial literacy and some of the key challenges involved. (0:07:55)
  • The global survey that was conducted on financial literacy in 2014 and its dismal findings. (0:11:44)
  • The areas of financial literacy that people struggle with most and why the need for financial literacy has increased over time. (0:15:26)
  • The costs and benefits of gaining financial literacy and the concept of optimal financial knowledge. (0:22:42)
  • An overview of the type of person who should be investing in financial literacy and why. (0:27:46)
  • How the strength of your government’s social safety net affects financial literacy rates. (0:30:15)
  • The extent to which financial literacy affects stock market participation and wealth accumulation. (0:31:18)
  • Some of the common mistakes that those with low levels of financial literacy tend to make. (0:35:10)
  • Why financial literacy’s end goal should be geared towards happiness and living a good life. (0:39:24)
  • The impact that financial advice and financial advisors have on economic outcomes. (0:43:18)
  • How financial literacy varies across demographic groups and some of the factors that account for disparities in financial literacy. (0:45:42)
  • How financial education programs can yield positive results and where this education should take place for it to be optimal. (0:52:13)
  • What listeners can do to increase financial literacy for those around them and why there is no alternative to good financial knowledge. (0:58:55)

 

 

Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode:

 

Links From Today’s Episode:

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.

Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/

Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/

Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/

Follow us on Twitter — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind

Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder

Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix

Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore

Dr. Annamaria Lusardi — https://www.annamarialusardi.com/

'Financial literacy and financial resilience: Evidence from around the world' — https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/fima.12283

'The Economic Importance of Financial Literacy: Theory and Evidence' — https://gflec.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/economic-importance-financial-literacy-theory-evidence.pdf

'Optimal Financial Knowledge and Wealth Inequality' — https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/690950

'Financial literacy and stock market participation' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X11000717

'Employee Financial Literacy and Retirement Plan Behavior: A Case Study' — https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ecin.12389

'Skating on thin ice: New evidence on financial fragility' — https://www.dnb.nl/media/uxldldkl/working-paper-no-670_tcm47.pdf

'Stereotypes in financial literacy: Evidence from PISA' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0929119920302753?via%3Dihub

'Fearless Woman: Financial Literacy and Stock Market Participation' — https://gflec.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Fearless-Woman-Research-Final.pdf?x53868

'How Financially Literate Are Women? An Overview and New Insights' — https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/joca.12121

'Factors Contributing to Financial Well-Being among Black and Hispanic Women' — https://jor.pm-research.com/content/9/1/71

'Financial Education Affects Financial Knowledge and Downstream Behaviors' — https://gflec.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Working-Paper-Financial-education-affects-financial-knowledge-and-downstream-behaviors-April_2020.pdf

Today is our final episode featuring just the two of us before our annual wrap-up show, and we thought we would use this opportunity to cover some important foundational aspects of rational investing. Ben goes over some of the most fundamental concepts about market prices, risk, and actual returns before answering five common questions that relate to this level of information. From investing in an employer's stock to predicting the future and real estate comparisons, these five touch-points are always worth returning to, and should even interest the more experienced of our listeners. For the second half of the show, we offer a quick book review of The Culture Playbook by Daniel Coyle, and have a brief and illuminating conversation with Professor Amer Kaissi about his book, Humbitious, and some of his thoughts on the part that reading plays in rich and progressive life. Press play to catch all this and more on the Rational Reminder Podcast.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • Picking up a thread from our discussion on the 2% Rule. (0:06:05)
  • Getting to grips with investing basics. (0:10:45)
  • How market prices work in response to traders' actions and risk. (0:17:59)
  • The main determinants of actual returns and starting points for your portfolio. (0:23:15)
  • Unknowable futures and the eternal doom and gloom predictions. (0:35:43)
  • Assessing the value of owning an employer's stock. (0:38:21)
  • Holding stock picks in Tax-Free Savings Accounts. (0:42:07)
  • How to prepare a portfolio when a recession is predicted. (0:43:49)
  • Comparing investments in real estate with the stock market. (0:45:14)
  • Weighing the value of building and emergency fund. (0:47:11)
  • A thirty-second recap of our episode with Cliff Asness. (0:50:06)
  • Today's book review focussing on the lesson from The Culture Playbook by Daniel Coyle. (0:51:48)
  • Professor Kaissi shares a quick summary of his book, Humbitious. (0:58:40)
  • The potential to develop characteristics and the role that reading plays. (0:59:38)
  • Professor Kaissi talks about his reading habits. (1:02:12)
  • Application of ideas from books and how Professor Kaissi captures and organizes information in his own reading. (1:05:15)
  • A few of Professor Kaissi's favourite book recommendations and how to increase your reading habit. (1:08:52)

 

 

Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode:

https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-231-investing-basics-and-common-questions-plus-reading-habits-w-amer-kaissi-discussion-thread/20716

Books From Today’s Episode:

Humbitious: The Power of Low-Ego, High-Drive Leadershiphttps://amzn.to/3WjHjry

Mindsethttps://amzn.to/3Wzl7Kr

Quiethttps://amzn.to/3htlN4X

The Five Dysfunctions of a Teamhttps://amzn.to/3YmKqRv

The SPEED of Trusthttps://amzn.to/3UWCljq

Top Five Regrets of the Dyinghttps://amzn.to/3uQcUWf

The Assertiveness Workbookhttps://amzn.to/3VVDVUf

How to Raise Your Self Esteemhttps://amzn.to/3BDM33p

Ego Is the Enemyhttps://amzn.to/3BAyCkZ

Links From Today’s Episode:

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.
Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ 

Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/

Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/

Follow us on Twitter — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind

Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder

Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix

Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore

Amer Kaissi on Twitter — https://twitter.com/amerkaissi10

Amer Kaissi on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/amer-kaissi-ph-d-38258919/

Amer Kaissi — http://www.amerkaissi.com

'The Value of Goals-Based Financial Planning' — https://www.financialplanningassociation.org/article/journal/JUN15-value-goals-based-financial-planning

'Excessive Extrapolation and the Allocation of 401(k) Accounts to Company Stock' — http://independent401kadvisors.com/library_articles/ExcessiveExtrapolation.pdf

'The Agony of Ecstasy: The risks and rewards of a concentrated stock position' — https://assets.jpmprivatebank.com/content/dam/jpm-wm-aem/global/pb/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/agony-ecstasy-2021.pdf

'The financial resilience and financial well-being of Canadians during the COVID-19 pandemic' — https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/75f0002m/75f0002m2021008-eng.htm

The world is a highly competitive place, and becoming successful requires hard work, dedication, and luck. This is the view of today’s guest, Professor Robert Frank, who helps us unravel the nuance of conspicuous consumption trends and the role of luck in gaining financial success. Professor Frank is the emeritus Henrietta Johnson Louis Professor of Management at Cornell University and holds an MA in statistics and a Ph.D. in Economics from UC Berkeley. He is also a prolific author, having written 12 books, financial textbooks, and many peer-reviewed articles in journals such as the American Economic Review, Econometrica, and Journal of Political Economy. He is passionate about how policy can help drive positive consumer behaviour, reduce inequality, and increase individual happiness. His work has also focused on the role of luck in achieving financial success which he covers in his book Success and Luck. In this episode, we unpack how individuals can improve societal collective action, the role of policy in driving those changes, and how luck interplays with success. We discuss economic and financial relativism, the dangers of conspicuous consumption, how expenditure cascades occur, and what influences consumption trends in society. We also dive into the topic of luck, whether wealthy people are happier, what behavioural changes are needed to create a better society, and more.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • Professor Frank describes the difference between departures from rational choice with regret and without regret. (0:04:34)
  • Whether he classifies his work as behavioural economics. (0:07:38)
  • An explanation of economic and financial relativism. (0:10:50)
  • The role of economic and financial relativism in consumption trends. (0:12:44)
  • Find out what constitutes a positional good. (0:16:56)
  • How the consumption of positional goods affects psychological well-being. (0:19:32)
  • Why people choose to engage in consumption arms races. (0:21:52)
  • The relationship between the consumption of luxury goods and happiness. (0:24:45)
  • What people can do to recognize and avoid negative consumption behaviours. (0:26:31)
  • How the spending of the super-rich impacts the spending habits of the typical consumer. (0:27:38)
  • Ways in which social media influencers have affected consumption. (0:30:32)
  • We learn about the link between consumption and inequality. (0:32:40)
  • How well differences in human capital explain differences in income. (0:35:04)
  • Professor Frank explains how likely it is that the most skilled person gets the best outcome in a competitive market. (0:38:13)
  • Professor Frank shares how they measure luck. (0:41:20)
  • The influence luck has on achieving a successful outcome. (0:42:09)
  • Find out if luck influences consumption trends and inequality. (0:44:03)
  • A thought experiment concerning the wealthy and higher taxes. (0:46:56)
  • We discuss whether winner-take-all markets are a good thing for society. (0:50:22)
  • How people should behave differently to help drive positive change. (0:53:06)
  • Advice for people to stay motivated and work hard. (0:57:19)
  • What Professor Frank thinks about working a job you hate for more money. (0:58:59)
  • He provides insight for people who work jobs they hate. (0:59:59)
  • His approach on the subject of luck and meritocracy with young kids. (1:00:47)
  • We discuss the idolization of financially successful people. (1:03:36)
  • How successful individuals should behave differently in an economy where luck plays such an important role. (1:05:38)
  • The response of successful people to Success and Luck. (1:08:15)
  • Steps people can take to positively affect those around them. (1:09:29)
  • Discover what Professor Frank’s position is on policy. (1:14:20)
  • We hear how Professor Frank defines success in his life. (1:18:33)

 

 

Links From Today’s Episode:

 

Professsor Robert Frank on Twitter — https://twitter.com/econnaturalist

Cornell University — https://www.cornell.edu/

Success and Luck — https://www.amazon.com/Success-Luck-Good-Fortune/

Luxury Fever https://www.amazon.com/Luxury-Fever/

Principles of Economics https://www.amazon.com/Principles-Economics/

The Winner-Take-All Society — https://www.amazon.com/Winner-Take-All-Society/

American Economic Review — https://www.aeaweb.org/journals/aer

Econometrica — https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/14680262

Journal of Political Economy — https://www.jstor.org/journal/jpoliecon

Project Sunroof — https://sunroof.withgoogle.com/

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.
Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/

Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/?hl=en

Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/
Benjamin Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/

Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix

Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/

Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/

Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore

Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/

Traditionally, people saving for retirement and financial advisors relied on the 4% rule when calculating how much to save for retirement and the associated income those savings would provide after retirement. What if you found out it does not work? Is there another option? Today, we offer you an alternative approach, which is the 2% rule for retirement spending. Before we delve into today’s main topic, we update listeners on the recent London meet-up, what to expect on upcoming shows, and who our special guest is to kick off the first episode of 2023. Then, we discuss today’s main topic and learn what the 2% rule is, how it compares to the 4% rule, and whether the safe percentage for retirement is actually higher. We unpack retirement spending through the lens of several empirical papers, historical data, and market comparisons. We also find out why the US market has always been able to bounce back from uncertainty and whether there is empirical data to support the 4% rule. We also talk about the many financial challenges and opportunities that young people face, the biggest mistake people make regarding retirement, the value of financial literacy, book reviews, and more!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • An update on the 22 in 22 Reading Challenge. (0:05:21)
  • Outline of today’s content and the main topic: the 2% rule for retirement spending. (0:06:27)
  • An overview of the “2% rule”, the motivation behind it, and how it was formulated. (0:08:17)
  • We discuss if the safe withdrawal rate for retirement savings is higher than 4%. (0:13:31)
  • The inspiration for the higher average realized rate of return on investment theory. (0:19:59)
  • Whether the past returns on US stocks will repeat in the future. (0:21:54)
  • Why the US stock market has been historically exceptional and resilient, and how other markets compare. (0:23:44)
  • The biggest limitation of the seminal work which helped established the 4% rule. (0:28:38)
  • How data gaps were dealt with in the paper by Scott Rieckens and results are discussed. (0:33:16)
  • Other aspects to consider regarding the research on retirement funds. (0:38:35)
  • The challenges and opportunities that young people face today. (0:42:24)
  • How financial literacy impacts investment opportunities, returns, and overall happiness. (0:46:59)
  • What are the potential solutions and reasons to be optimistic regarding the current financial market. (0:47:48)
  • Our usual episode review under a minute: episode 30 with Larry Swedroe. (0:52:31)
  • This week’s book review and choice architecture. (0:54:35)
  • We discuss the reviews and feedback received on a previous episode. (1:02:32)
  • Hear an update about our idea regarding CE credits and reviews about the show. (1:06:01)

 

 

Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode:

https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-229-the-2-rule-for-retirement-spending-discussion-thread/20473

 

Book From Today’s Episode:

The Elements of Choice: Why the Way We Decide Matters https://amzn.to/3VvxZR8

 

Links From Today’s Episode:

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.

Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ 

Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/

Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/

Follow us on Twitter — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind

Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder

Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix

Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore

'Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data' — https://retailinvestor.org/pdf/Bengen1.pdf

'Retirement Savings: Choosing a Withdrawal Rate That Is Sustainable' — https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Carl-Hubbard/publication/265279441/

'Global stock markets in the twentieth century' — https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/

'Is The United States A Lucky Survivor: A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3689958

'The Safe Withdrawal Rate' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4227132

'The equity premium: A puzzle' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0304393285900613

'Long-Horizon Losses in Stocks, Bonds, and Bills' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3964908

'Financial System Review 2022' — https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/06/financial-system-review-2022/#:~:text=The%20tightening%20of%20monetary%20policy,remain%20two%20key%20interconnected%20vulnerabilities.

'The financial resilience and financial well-being of Canadians during the COVID-19 pandemic' — https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/75f0002m/75f0002m2021008-eng.htm

'Hopefulness is declining across Canada' — https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220517/dq220517d-eng.htm

'Global Investor Experience Study: Fees and Expenses' — https://assets.contentstack.io/v3/assets/blt4eb669caa7dc65b2/blt60e320775385837a/62431900eed9f60f2de8ad55/GIE_2022.pdf

'Financial Literacy Around the World' — https://gflec.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/3313-Finlit_Report_FINAL-5.11.16.pdf

'Ontario Securities Commission Investor Knowledge Study' — https://www.osc.ca/sites/default/files/2022-09/inv_research_20220907_investor-knowledge-study_EN.pdf

'Measuring the Financial Sophistication of Household' — https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w14699/w14699.pdf

'Investment Literacy, Overconfidence and Cryptocurrency Investment' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3953242

'Financial Literacy and Attitudes to Cryptocurrencies' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3482083

'Bitcoin Awareness, Ownership and Use: 2016–20'— https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/sdp2022-10.pdf

'Optimal Financial Knowledge and Wealth Inequality' — https://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1093&context=bepp_papers

'Financial Literacy and Retirement Planning in the United States' — https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w17108/w17108.pdf

'Financial Well-Being of the Millennial Generation' — https://gflec.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Financial-Well-Being-of-the-Millennial-Generation-Paper-20191122.pdf

In this episode, we are joined by the CIO of Avantis Investors, Eduardo Repetto, to have an in-depth conversation about his philosophy and approach to many of the central concepts that are important to our listeners. Eduardo weighs in on asset pricing factor investing, premiums, and also shares some of his perspectives on what makes Avantis different from its competitors. Eduardo's wealth of experience and technical know-how make this very practical exploration, complete with some inventive and demonstrative analogies. Despite the high-level concepts discussed, our guest's ability to communicate these in an accessible manner also helped maintain a level of approachability throughout. Toward the end of the episode, we get to hear a little about Eduardo's Ph.D. in aeronautics and some of the surprising overlaps he sees between his two fields of interest.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

  • Eduardo's approach to communicating what Avantis can offer their clients. (0:02:57)
  • Advantages of the ETF structure for managing portfolios. (0:05:07)
  • Advice for investors for quantitatively assessing the expected return advantage of a factor-tilted portfolio. (0:10:26)
  • Practical approaches for individual investors when assessing a factor tilt in portfolios. (0:13:54)
  • Eduardo unpacks the idea of trust in relation to the premium. (0:20:45)
  • When does a completely small-cap value portfolio make sense? (0:27:23)
  • Avantis' method for targeting value and profitability. (0:31:03)
  • The weighting of different metrics that Avantis uses when building portfolios. (0:34:43)
  • Eduardo unpacks cash profitability versus operating profitability. (0:36:53)
  • The approach at Avantis to sector weights. (0:39:56)
  • Understanding adjusted book value when pricing a company. (0:43:53)
  • Eduardo describes the premium for the Goodwill adjustment. (0:50:02)
  • How Avantis views pursuing credit premium in fixed income investments. (0:51:32)
  • Determining the size of factors tilts on particular products. (0:57:05)
  • Reasons that there are no emerging market small cap value strategies. (0:59:48)
  • Comparing the research behind inflation-focused equity strategy to a more general value profitability premium. (1:06:03)
  • Avantis' strategy for staying on the cutting edge of the latest research. (1:10:34)
  • Conversations between Avantis and American Century Investments about different investment philosophies. (1:18:22)
  • Eduardo shares his opinion about Avantis' competitive advantage. (1:19:56)
  • Where Avantis and Eduardo are aiming their energy in the near future, and the succession plan for the company. (1:23:11)
  • Some surprising similarities between aeronautics and asset management. (1:27:21)
  • Eduardo talks about his personal definition of success. (1:31:31)

 

Links From Today’s Episode:

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.
Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/

Eduardo Repetto — https://www.avantisinvestors.com/content/avantis/en/about-us/our-team/eduardo-repetto.html

Avantis Investors — https://www.avantisinvestors.com/

Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/?hl=en

Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/
Benjamin Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/

Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix

Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/

Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/

Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore

Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/

In today’s episode, we pull relevant quotes from past guests (namely John Cochrane, Gene Fama, and Jonathan Berk) to extricate who should own market cap funds. We look at the variable risks of value stocks and factor investing and hear counter-views on owning the market. We also delve into the hot topic of tax loss selling, with an overview of a recent Financial Analyst Journal paper on loss harvesting outcomes, sorted by investor profiles. This episode will get you up to date on the biggest finance news of the week, from crypto collapses to Amazon’s catapulting gains and losses. Tune in to hear all of this and more, including a recap of our conversation with Dave Goetsch and our Financial Literacy Month book reviews. 

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • A neat way to keep track of the value of your purchases over time. (0:00:33)
  • The results of the Rational Reminder financial literacy survey. (0:02:44)
  • An overview of this episode’s topics. (0:05:45)
  • Who should invest in market cap-weighted index funds. (0:07:28)
  • How to determine whether you’re different from the average investor. (0:16:13)
  • Gene Fama’s take on the possibility of identifying state factors. (0:22:13)
  • The variable risks of value stocks. (0:23:25)
  • What drives people to increase their value tilts over time. (0:25:11)
  • The risks of factor investing, and trading in general. (0:28:26)
  • Jonathan Berk’s take on owning the market. (0:31:53)
  • A summary of who should invest in total market index funds. (0:33:20)
  • The big crypto news of the week! (0:38:21)
  • Other significant market news. (0:42:17)
  • An overview of a recent Financial Analyst Journal paper on loss harvesting outcomes, sorted by investor profiles. (0:44:59)
  • Our book reviews for Financial Literacy Month. (0:55:15)
  • A recap of our conversation with Dave Goetsch. (1:01:47)
  • A few of our listeners’ reviews. (1:02:50)

 

Participate in our RR CE Credits Survey:

https://forms.office.com/Pages/ResponsePage.aspx?id=xVA-B3TS3UeuUte5Yx-hRi0Vpj3fzvhNpOTm6eRMYJ5UN0tOM1A5MFdPQzJFT1hZOTJLN1pHRVFYSS4u

Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode:

https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-227-who-should-invest-in-cap-weighted-index-funds-discussion-thread/20230

Books From Today’s Episode:

The Geometry of Wealth: How to shape a life of money and meaninghttps://amzn.to/3Od9J3N

Retirement Income for Life: Getting More without Saving Morehttps://amzn.to/3GpkHRN

We're Talking Millions!: 12 Simple Ways to Supercharge Your Retirement — https://amzn.to/3UI3uaE

Common Sense on Mutual Funds — https://amzn.to/3AjUsIM

The Investment Answer: Learn to Manage Your Money and Protect Your Financial Future — https://amzn.to/3UWeSPM

Money Like You Mean It: Personal Finance Tactics for the Real Worldhttps://amzn.to/3g9bT7Q

Links From Today’s Episode:

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.

Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ 

Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/

Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/

Follow us on Twitter — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind

Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder

Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix

Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore

'An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model' — https://www.jstor.org/stable/1913811

'Risk and Return of Value Stocks' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=112553

'The Value Premium' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=351060

'A Consumption-Based Explanation of Expected Stock Returns' — https://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1146&context=fnce_papers

'Who Are the Value and Growth Investors?' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2426823

'Is There a Replication Crisis in Finance?' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3774514

'Amazon Becomes World’s First Public Company to Lose $1 Trillion in Market Value' — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-09/amazon-hits-unwelcome-milestone-with-1-trillion-in-value-lost?leadSource=uverify%20wall

 

In this episode, we speak to renowned Canadian figure Colonel Chris Hadfield. For those who don't know, Chris is a heavily decorated astronaut, engineer, and pilot, and has received many awards, such as the Order of Canada, the Meritorious Service Cross and the NASA Exceptional Service Medal. Colonel Hadfield became a worldwide sensation with his video of David Bowie's "Space Oddity" which was viewed by over 75 million people. He aims to make space more accessible and continues to share the wonders of outer space and science with as many people as possible. Besides his phenomenal professional background, he is also known for his music which he writes and plays on earth and in space! He is also the author of several books, namely An Astronaut's Guide to Life on Earth, You Are Here, and a children's book, The Darkest Dark. Although Colonel Hadfield has a very different background from previous guests, his 35-year career has afforded him many lessons that apply to life, which he shares in our conversation with him. We learn the importance of goals and why reaching your goals should not define your happiness. Hear ways to overcome fear when facing uncertainty, the value of competence, and why enjoying the road to success is more important than success itself. Find out why sweating the small is essential to success, whether Colonel Hadfield suffers from imposter syndrome, and where true happiness comes from. Tune in and discover the secret to success and happiness in this one-of-a-kind conversation with special guest, Colonel Chris Hadfield!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • What motivated Commander Hadfield to take pictures onboard the International Space Station. (0:04:10)
  • He briefly explains the amount of effort that went into taking pictures for his book You Are Here. (0:05:14)
  • What lessons Commander Hadfield learned as an astronaut that he applies to life. (0:06:34)
  • How to keep motivated to achieve your goals with the knowledge that you probably won’t achieve them. (0:08:41)
  • Why his goal was becoming an astronaut and not to be an astronaut. (0:11:05)
  • Whether there is a time to reconsider or quit a goal that you have set for yourself. (0:12:46)
  • The best way to prepare for situations with uncertain outcomes. (0:14:51)
  • How to prepare for situations that you cannot prepare or practice for. (0:18:18)
  • Ways to mitigate fear when dealing with risk and uncertainty. (0:20:55)
  • Learn if building competence is different for different people. (0:23:48)
  • Hear the benefits of negative thinking and sweating the small stuff. (0:25:33)
  • Commander Hadfield explains how to prepare for novel situations. (0:29:07)
  • He shares where he thinks life satisfaction comes from. (0:31:49)
  • Find out if Commander Hadfield ever suffers from imposter syndrome. (0:34:14)
  • What life lessons he hopes to impart to his grandchildren. (0:36:09)
  • How Commander Hadfield defines success in his life. (0:38:04)
  • We highlight the main takeaways from our conversation with Commander Hadfield. (0:41:14)

 

 

Links From Today’s Episode:

 

Commander Chris Hadfield — https://chrishadfield.ca/

Commander Chris Hadfield on Twitter — https://twitter.com/Cmdr_Hadfield/

Commander Chris Hadfield on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/colchrishadfield/

Commander Chris Hadfield on Facebook — https://www.facebook.com/AstronautChrisHadfield

Commander Chris Hadfield on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/chris-hadfield/

Commander Chris Hadfield on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/c/ChrisHadfieldAstronaut/featured

 

A Space Oddity — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KaOC9danxNo

You Are Here https://www.amazon.com/You-Are-Here-Photographs-International/dp/0316379646

An Astronaut's Guide to Life on Earth https://www.amazon.com/Astronauts-Guide-Life-Earth-Determination/

The Darkest Dark — https://www.amazon.com/The-Darkest-Dark/

 

Are index funds a menace to the market? Are pension funds still a wise way to secure your financial future? In this episode, we discuss index funds, the state-sponsored pension plan in Canada, and much more. First, we unpack the nuances of index funds and take a look at the impact that active and passive investors have on the market. We discuss current index fund trends, when to switch from a passive to an active investor, and the dreaded index fund tipping point. To help us understand pension funds, we also chat with Jordan Tarasoff, a financial planner at PWL Capital, about the recent controversy regarding state pension schemes in Canada, and he provides us with some valuable insights into the government’s upcoming plan. We switch up our usual book review to celebrate Financial Literacy Month and share five recommended books that will help you improve your understanding of finance. We also try something new by giving listeners a condensed overview of a previous episode with one of our favourite guests, Scott Rieckens. Finally, we go through some of the feedback and comments we’ve received from the growing Rational Reminder community about the show and our recent financial goals survey.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • What to look forward to in next week’s episode. (0:05:08)
  • Hear about a special promotion to celebrate Financial Literacy Month. (0:05:43)
  • Introducing today’s topic and what to expect in the episode. (0:05:56)
  • Worries and biggest critiques of index funds. (0:08:23)
  • Current trends regarding index funds in relation to the market. (0:09:40)
  • When investors should switch from passive to active. (0:12:45)
  • Some good news about the index fund tipping point. (0:15:46)
  • What investors should be aware of when actively investing. (0:16:32)
  • How informed and misinformed managers contribute to the index fund tipping point. (0:19:38)
  • Who the investors and managers are that change to passive investment. (0:20:52)
  • How switching from active to passive investing affects the value of the market. (0:25:38)
  • Unpacking the concept of markets being ‘inelastic’ as a result of index funds. (0:28:52)
  • Whether passive investing undermines price efficiency concerning index funds. (0:30:03)
  • What would cause the index tipping point to occur. (0:31:40)
  • A brief background on today’s guest, Jordan Tarasoff. (0:35:00)
  • Details about the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and how it works. (0:35:28)
  • Jordan outlines the benefits of deferring a pension plan claim. (0:36:28)
  • Recent changes that make deferring your pension plan non-beneficial. (0:38:20)
  • What age group the recent pension plan changes impact the most. (0:42:14)
  • Why the Consumer Price Index (CPI) can’t be used to predict wage growth. (0:43:53)
  • How Jordan is approaching his clients’ pensions regarding the new changes. (0:45:10)
  • Review of our top five books for increasing financial literacy. (0:48:57)
  • Our new segment: summarizing a past episode in sixty seconds. (0:56:57)
  • We ‘talk cents’ about financial values and spending. (0:58:49)
  • Recent reviews and feedback received about the podcast and goals survey. (1:02:40)

 

 

Links From Today’s Episode:

 

Jordan Tarasoff — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/jordan-tarasoff/

Scott Rieckens — http://www.scottrieckens.com/

Efficient Frontier — http://efficientfrontier.com/ef/0adhoc/2books.htm

Episode 95: Scott Rieckens (Playing with FIRE): Finding Financial Education, Perspective, and Freedom — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/95

Episode 99: Andrew Hallam (Millionaire Teacher): How to be Wealthy (and Happy) — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/99

Episode 108: Dr. William Bernstein: Praying for a Bear Market — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/108

Episode 128: Morgan Housel: The Psychology of Money — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/128

Episode 159: Bill Schultheis: Build Wealth and Get on With Your Life — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/159

Episode 186: Andrew Hallam: Balancing Money, Relationships, Health, and Purpose — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/186

Episode 191: Emerging Markets: Diversifying Asset or a Reverse Lottery? (plus Reading Habits w/ Morgan Housel) — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/191

Episode 212: Prof. Ralph Koijen: Demand System Asset Pricing & Inelastic Markets — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/212

Episode 124: Prof. Lubos Pastor: Equilibrium Models vs. Intuition — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/124

Episode 220: Jonathan Berk and Jules van Binsbergen: The Arithmetic of Active Management, Revisited — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/220

‘On the Size of the Active Management Industry’ — https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/667987

‘Disagreement, tastes, and asset prices’ — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X06001954

‘Measuring skill in the mutual fund industry’ — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X15000628

‘Which Investors Matter for Equity Valuations and Expected Returns?’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3378340

Balance: How to Invest and Spend for Happiness, Health, and Wealth https://www.amazon.com/Balance-Invest-Happiness-Health-Wealth/dp/1774580756

If You Can: How Millennials Can Get Rich Slowly https://www.amazon.com/If-You-Can-Millennials-Slowly/dp/098878033X

The Coffeehouse Investor's Ground Rules — https://www.amazon.com/Coffeehouse-Investors-Ground-Rules-Happiness/dp/1119717086

The Psychology of Money — https://www.amazon.com/Psychology-Money-Timeless-lessons-happiness/dp/0857197681

Think, Act, and Invest Like Warren Buffett — https://www.amazon.com/Think-Invest-Like-Warren-Buffett/

The November Meet-up Email — [email protected]

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.
Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/

Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/?hl=en

Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/
Benjamin Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/

Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix

Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/

Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/

Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore

Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/

Are stocks and bonds good in the long game? What are the best long-term investment options? In this episode, we speak to Professor Scott Cederburg about the nuance surrounding the stock market, bonds, and other investment types in the long term. He has a Ph.D. in Finance from the University of Iowa and is currently the Associate Professor of Finance at Eller College of Management at the University of Arizona. His research focuses on the long-horizon performance of a range of asset classes and investment types and has published in high-ranking academic journals, making him the perfect person to speak to about the subject. We discuss the topic through the lens of several papers he has written on stocks, bonds, retirement savings, and return predictability. In our conversation, we unravel the nuance of the returns on long-term stocks and bonds, hear details about his research design, and learn how unanticipated events can affect the market. He also provides insight into the different biases surrounding long-term investments, the block bootstrap approach, reasons why the block bootstrap approach is needed, and why bonds and bills may not be the long-term investment you were hoping for. We also discuss the best options for investors regarding pre-tax and post-tax accounts and the differences between high-beta and low-beta portfolios. He also shares some basic steps for investors to help them protect their investments. Join us as we dig into the past to uncover the financial future with Professor Scott Cederburg.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • We begin with Professor Cederburg describing his research design for his work investigating long-term returns on stocks and bonds. (0:04:20)
  • Hear examples of how unanticipated events lead to impacts on stocks and bonds. (0:08:08)
  • What the overall trend in the data was from his research on stocks and bonds. (0:11:05)
  • Why considering different biases is essential for financial decision-making. (0:11:45)
  • How the historical experience in the US stock and bond markets compare to other developed markets. (0:12:45)
  • Details about the data he collected regarding domestic stocks and investors. (0:13:55)
  • Learn how probable it is that domestic stocks will deliver losses in the long term. (0:16:41)
  • Outline of the factors which tend to cause long-term stock losses. (0:17:36)
  • What potential losses are in the long-term for international stocks. (0:18:58)
  • How likely stocks will deliver catastrophic losses as opposed to traditional forms of loss. (0:22:15)
  • Find out how much the probability of loss decreases with longer horizons. (0:23:59)
  • The contribution of currency and domestic inflation to the trends in the data. (0:24:52)
  • We compare how well international stocks hedge against long-term real losses in domestic stocks. (0:25:25)
  • He shares how he thinks investors should approach the home country bias. (0:26:34)
  • A rundown of the expropriations that exist in Professor Cederburg’s data. (0:27:34)
  • We talk about long-term stocks and their implications on asset allocations. (0:28:48)
  • How wide the distribution of long-run stock payoffs are. (0:29:28)
  • Discover how likely bonds and bills are to real losses over a long period. (0:30:16)
  • Breakdown of what the distribution looks like for bond returns. (0:31:52)
  • Whether bonds act as a hedge against poor stock returns. (0:33:24)
  • Common economic conditions that explain the poor long-term returns for stocks and bonds. (0:34:58)
  • Ways in which the results can be used to make predictions for the economic future. (0:38:36)
  • Professor Cederburg tells us if stocks are safe or risky in the long term. (0:40:23)
  • He unpacks mean reversion in the full-time series compared to the block bootstrap approach. (0:41:27)
  • Why emerging markets were not considered in the study. (0:43:55)
  • Advice for investors given the findings of his study. (0:45:00)
  • We discuss the applicability of the findings within a contemporary market setting. (0:47:04)
  • Which variables need to be considered when deciding between a pre-tax or post-tax savings account. (0:49:19)
  • Factors that make a pre-tax and post-tax account valuable. (0:50:41)
  • Hear the investment type most exposed to future tax schedule uncertainty. (0:54:50)
  • Whether using a post-tax account can build resilience to tax uncertainty. (0:56:29)
  • Simple rules for listeners to help them optimize the location of their savings. (0:59:08)
  • How the simple rules compare to the optimization analysis performed for the research paper. (1:01:40)
  • Risk-adjusted performance for high beta and low beta portfolios. (1:03:02)
  • We learn what the implications are for someone investing in low-beta assets. (1:05:58)
  • Professor Cederburg shares his definition of success. (1:09:17)

 

 

Links From Today’s Episode:

 

Global Financial Data — https://globalfinancialdata.com/

‘Stocks for the long run? Evidence from a broad sample of developed markets’ — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/

‘Tax Uncertainty and Retirement Savings Diversification’ — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/

‘Does it pay to bet against beta? On the conditional performance of the beta anomaly’ — https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jofi.12383

 

We recently created and conducted a very interesting survey based on financial goals, and today, we get to share some of the data we collected and the answers that were given to the questions. Although there are some definite limitations to our expertise as surveyors and data collectors, the findings are most definitely illuminating, surprising, and useful. Listeners will get to hear a bit about the process of building the survey as well as some of the raw numbers and data before we get into the list of goals that were submitted, collated, and ranked. We also share some of the ways that these were split across demographics such as age and gender. Apart from this focus on the survey, we share some thoughts on Eat the Rich, Coin, and The Next Millionaire Next Door, and finish off the show with some very impactful letters from listeners that we have received recently.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • Thoughts on the new Netflix show, Eat the Rich, and the story of GameStop. (0:01:58)
  • What to expect on the podcast in November during Canadian Financial Literacy Month. (0:05:17)
  • Reflections on the new film, Coin, and the founding of Coinbase. (0:08:08)
  • Introducing the results from our recent survey on goals. (0:11:23)
  • The process of building the survey and the questions we included. (0:18:22)
  • A look over the basic data of the survey. (0:22:27)
  • Popular objectives from the survey and how these were split across different demographics. (0:23:17)
  • The answers that were given in relation to each specific question. (0:28:02)
  • Developing best practices for goal setting for an advisor environment. (0:30:17)
  • Limitations to our expertise in designing this survey and analyzing the data. (0:32:43)
  • Running through the complete list of goals in order. (0:34:29)
  • Introducing this week's book discussion on The Next Millionaire Next Door. (0:39:46)
  • Standout findings from the research that was conducted for the book. (0:44:00)
  • Utilization of an 'expected net worth test' in the book. (0:49:50)
  • A look at some of the listener messages we have received lately. (0:52:29)

 

 

Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode:

https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-223-a-financial-goals-master-list-n-310-discussion-thread/19742

 

Books From Today’s Episode:

The Next Millionaire Next Door — https://www.amazon.com/Next-Millionaire-Door-Enduring-Strategies/dp/1493035355

 

Links From Today’s Episode:

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.
Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ 

Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/

Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/

Follow us on Twitter — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind

Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder

Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix

Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore

Financial Goals Summary - https://www.pwlcapital.com/resources/goals-survey-summary/

'Generating Objectives' — https://repository.library.georgetown.edu/handle/10822/707941

Tom McHugh YouTube Video — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MbaAkJHvCIw

'Generating Objectives' — https://repository.library.georgetown.edu/handle/10822/707941

Tom McHugh YouTube Video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MbaAkJHvCIw

There is more and more research on the determinants and results of happiness in human life, and on the show today we get to do an amazing deep dive on this subject with social psychologist, and author of Happier Hour, Cassie Holmes. Cassie is currently running a course at UCLA Anderson School of Management called 'Applying the Science of Happiness to Life Design', and her book draws directly from the content of this course. In our chat, Cassie shares some definitive data on what actually influences our happiness in significant ways, how to invest and allocate your available time, approaches to offsetting hedonic adaptation, and the vital importance of relationships and exercise. Our guest also talks about popular misconceptions and cultural perceptions about success, and why assessing your values and purpose can make achieving more happiness much more realistic. It is here that we find Cassie's main thesis; that through reflection and tracking we can determine more accurately how to use our time in the different parts of our lives and increase our day-to-day happiness, so make sure to join us for this episode of the Rational Reminder.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • The science behind the important benefits of happiness. (0:02:17)
  • Current research into the measurement of happiness. (0:04:27)
  • Cassie talks about the roots of the course she teaches on happiness. (0:07:02)
  • Misconceptions about what makes us happy and the lasting power of notions of success. (0:10:25)
  • The cultural roots of our perceptions of happiness. (0:14:58)
  • Determinants of happiness; Cassie shares the biggest factors in our emotional landscape. (0:20:16)
  • Working towards a goal, time tracking, and entering flow states. (0:25:28)
  • Happiness as a decision and as a disposition; how much control do we have? (0:30:26)
  • How comparison undermines and robs us of happiness. (0:37:01)
  • Cassie unpacks how to understand the role of relationships in our lives. (0:38:30)
  • A story from Cassie illustrating the links between discretionary time and happiness. (0:43:35)
  • Amounts of discretionary time to allocate to yourself each day. (0:49:39)
  • The worst ways to use time and the activities that enhance feelings of loneliness. (0:52:02)
  • Cassie's advice on how to avoid time poverty and what to refuse. (0:55:53)
  • The dangers of an over-emphasis on productivity and urgency. (0:58:21)
  • Aligning your values and purpose in the professional sphere of your life. (1:01:38)
  • How the remote landscape and work-from-home model has impacted happiness. (1:03:03)
  • Going over the exercises and assignments that Cassie finds to be most impactful for her students. (1:06:36)
  • Cassie's definition of success and its relation to her clearly defined purpose. (1:11:33)

 

Of course, you want to protect your family and your savings from unforeseen consequences, but is life insurance the best option? Can life insurance be an investment rather than a cost? In today's episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast, we take a look at everything life insurance and dig into some hard-hitting research on the subject. We break down the various insurance products available and unravel the nuances regarding returns, dividends, and the associated fees. We discuss why there is so much confusion regarding returns and associated risk, how your contribution can affect your returns, and why you may not get the payout you expected. We also delve into what makes each insurance product different from the next, whether predictions on insurance policy returns are possible, and how insurance compares to other asset classes. If you’re looking for insight into the potential tax benefits of life insurance and a breakdown of the different scenarios where life insurance is needed, this is the episode for you!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • The main topic of the episode: permanent life insurance. (0:04:29)
  • Defining insurance and how it is typically structured. (0:04:44)
  • ‘Term life insurance’ and how it works. (0:05:41)
  • A brief outline of the differences between term insurance and permanent insurance. (0:07:37)
  • Details about term life insurance and the benefits to the policyholder. (0:09:37)
  • Another type of life insurance: universal life insurance. (0:11:05)
  • How investments within a life insurance policy are designed. (0:13:20)
  • An interesting insight Ben came across while researching insurance. (0:14:38)
  • Non-participating whole life insurance and the associated cash value. (0:16:00)
  • A breakdown of participating life insurance and what makes it different. (0:18:42)
  • The basis for performance and premiums on participating insurance. (0:21:43)
  • Whether or not it’s possible to predict returns from insurance products. (0:25:25)
  • Reasons for the obscurity surrounding insurance products and expected returns. (0:25:49)
  • The policy illustration software that many insurance companies use. (0:29:35)
  • Insight into post-tax returns of permanent insurance on death. (0:35:23)
  • An overview of when you would need life insurance. (0:40:58)
  • The long-term expected death benefits compared to other assets. (0:43:03)
  • Insight into the commission incentive associated with insurance policies. (0:45:47)
  • Highlights of a recent presentation that Ben gave at an IAFP conference. (0:46:53)
  • Feedback received about the Jonathan Berk and Jules van Binsbergen episode. (0:49:01)
  • A summary of recent news about rate changes and developments at Vanguard. (0:56:23)
  • This week’s review of The Art of Gathering, about meeting more effectively. (01:00:55)
  • An honourable mention of another book, Your Investment Philosophy. (1:06:22)

 

Do you feel like you have a good grasp of financial markets? Think again! In this episode, we take a plunge into the world of financial markets with experts Jules van Binsbergen and Jonathan Berk. Jules is a Professor of Finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and Jonathan is a Professor of Finance at Stanford Graduate School of Business. They also host a popular podcast called Else Equal, which explores the science and strategy of making better financial decisions, and have written several academic papers that challenge the status quo. In our conversation, we discuss their research on the relationship between manager skill and fund performance, the best ways to measure performance, and reasons why benefits are in favour of the managers. We also explore the dogma surrounding mutual funds, the differences between active and passive management, and how to measure efficient capital markets. Listeners will also hear perspectives that challenge their understanding of capital markets and viewpoints that completely disagree with previous guests. Although we have covered this topic before in previous episodes, this conversation will fundamentally change the way you view financial markets and how to think about them.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • What information fund performance contains about manager skill. (0:04:04)
  • Reasons why manager skill and performance are unrelated. (0:04:59)
  • We learn how manager skills should be measured. (0:06:57)
  • How to choose the appropriate benchmark to measure value added. (0:09:26)
  • Find out if you can use factor-mimicking portfolios to measure risk-adjusted returns. (0:12:05)
  • Whether funds that directly target risk factors can be used as an investable benchmark. (0:16:35)
  • What the skill of active managers are when skill is measured as value-added. (0:20:52)
  • The proportion of value-added between security selection and market timing. (0:23:20)
  • Discussion about how persistence manifests when it is measured by value-added. (0:25:43)
  • Find out if investors should analyze mutual fund companies as opposed to managers. (0:32:36)
  • Discover why research has focused on individual security pricing and not on evaluating manager skill. (0:34:25)
  • We unpack the reasons why it's a zero net alpha as opposed to a negative net alpha in equilibrium. (0:38:19)
  • We delve into why the research took so long to apply rational expectations to fund investors as with the stock market. (0:42:46)
  • An explanation of how equilibrium zero net alpha fits into Bill Sharpe's arithmetic of active management. (0:48:16)
  • Who benefits from the high amount of skill available within the sector. (0:51:11)
  • Whether the increase in millionaires around the world drives inequality. (0:56:12)
  • Hear if it is possible to identify skilled fund managers before the benefits of their skills are absorbed by fund size. (01:01:41)
  • The implications on efficient market hypothesis for the stock market. (01:05:36)
  • Advice for investors, considering that the benefits of skill are in favour of managers. (01:08:37)
  • Details about their research on how multi-factor asset pricing models are not representative of risk. (01:12:45)
  • We end the show by learning how our guests define success in their lives. (01:19:08)

  

Links From Today’s Episode:

 

Jules van Binsbergen — https://sites.google.com/view/jules-van-binsbergen/

Jules van Binsbergen on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/jules-van-binsbergen-a7b21a2/

Jules van Binsbergen on Google Scholar — https://scholar.google.com/citations/

Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania — https://www.wharton.upenn.edu/

Jonathan Berk — https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/faculty-research/faculty/jonathan-b-berk

Jonathan Berk on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathan-berk-07874a3b/

Jonathan Berk on Google Scholar — https://scholar.google.com/citations/

Stanford Graduate School of Business — https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/

Else Equal: Making Better Decisions https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/business-podcasts/all-else-equal-making-better-decisions

Passive in Name Only — https://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage/

The Emperor of All Maladies — https://www.amazon.com/Emperor-All-Maladies-Biography-Cancer/dp/1439170916

Unsettled https://www.amazon.com/Unsettled-Climate-Science-Doesnt-Matters/dp/1950665798

‘Episode 200 with Prof. Eugene Fama’ — https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9yYXRpb25hbHJlbWluZGVyLmxpYnN5bi5jb20vcnNz/episode/MzA2MjM2OTctOTc5Yy00MDU4LWE3YzMtYTdmMGU4NGQ0Y2Jj?sa=X&ved=0CAIQuIEEahgKEwjI27ng_rH6AhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQsQQ

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.
Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/

Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/?hl=en

Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/
Benjamin Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/

Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix

Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/

Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/

Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore

Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/

 

Critics of blockchain often say that it is nothing more than a database, but today’s guest, Ari Juels, has a different opinion. His technical expertise (he is a Professor of Computer Science at Cornell Tech), combined with his ability to understand both sides of a divisive topic like this one, make for a very insightful conversation about Bitcoin, NFTs, and smart contracts. We talk about the reasons for the valid skepticism that surrounds blockchain technology, the various reasons that Ari believes that it is a powerful, useful tool, despite its downfalls, pyramid schemes, decentralized exchanges and more!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • The significance of the Bitcoin innovation to Ari’s field of study. (0:03:40)
  • What piqued Ari’s initial interest in digital currency. (0:04:46)
  • Ari explains the difference between permission and permissionless blockchains. (0:06:27)
  • Comparing a permission blockchain with a distributed-append-only database with authorized contributors. (0:08:34)
  • A number of reasons why permissionless blockchains have been so widely embraced (despite Ari’s initial prediction to the contrary). (0:12:24)
  • Fraud in the cryptocurrency space; Ari shares his thoughts. (0:14:28)
  • The benefits of the cultural phenomenon of NFTs. (0:19:25)
  • Examples of NFT-related issues that still need to be addressed. (0:26:04)
  • How smart contracts can be used by criminals to their advantage. (0:30:09)
  • Why smart contracts are well suited for compliance. (0:32:02)
  • An example of a smart contract pyramid scheme. (0:35:48)
  • Some of the pros and cons of the inflexibility of smart contracts. (0:41:09)
  • What flash loans are and what they can be used for. (0:46:11)
  • Understanding the value of oracle systems. (0:50:04)
  • How the Candid system that Ari’s group developed helps to mitigate the problem of lost Bitcoin keys. (0:57:04)
  • Ari explains the advantages and disadvantages of a decentralized exchange. (01:01:19)
  • How the blockchain has improved code writing. (01:07:57)
  • The importance of balancing privacy and accountability in DeFi systems. (01:09:38)
  • Ari’s thoughts about the future potential of blockchain technology. (01:14:03)
  • The biggest concerns that Ari has about the blockchain space. (01:15:24)
  • Why skepticism about blockchain technology is valid. (01:17:31)
  • The facet of the blockchain space that Ari is most excited about. (01:19:51)

 

 

Links From Today’s Episode:

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.

Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ 

Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/

Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/

Follow us on Twitter — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind

Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder

Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix

Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore

Ari Juels on Twitter — https://twitter.com/AriJuels

Ari Juels — https://www.arijuels.com/

The Ring of Gyges: Using Smart Contracts for Crime — http://www.arijuels.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Gyges.pdf

NFTs for Art and Collectables: Primer and Outlook — https://www.arijuels.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/NFTs__Primer_and_Outlook.pdf

‘Huge mess of theft and fraud:’ artists sound alarm as NFT crime proliferates — https://www.theguardian.com/global/2022/jan/29/huge-mess-of-theft-artists-sound-alarm-theft-nfts-proliferates

Incomplete Contracts and Control — https://www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2018/06/hart-lecture.pdf

Chainlink 2.0: Next Steps in the Evolution of Decentralized Oracle Networks — https://research.chain.link/whitepaper-v2.pdf?_ga=2.99068702.124468793.1661870135-1990502175.1661870135

Flash Boys 2.0: Frontrunning, Transaction Reordering, and Consensus Instability in Decentralized Exchanges — https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05234.pdf

Themis: Fast, Strong Order-Fairness in Byzantine Consensus — https://eprint.iacr.org/2021/1465.pdf

Cleaning Up Cryptocurrency: The Energy Impacts of Blockchains — https://energycommerce.house.gov/sites/democrats.energycommerce.house.gov/files/documents/Witness%20Testimony_Juels_OI_2022.01.20.pdf

The Seven Grand Challenges — https://www.initc3.org/projects.html

The type of assets which usually come to mind when considering investments are stocks, bonds, or cash, but what are the alternatives? And what kind of returns do alternative asset classes offer? In today’s episode, we delve into the returns which can be expected from alternative asset classes such as private equity, venture capital, angel investing, private credit, hedge funds, direct real estate, and cryptocurrencies. Hear an in-depth analysis based on empirical studies and the expertise of your hosts, Ben and Cameron, to discover whether there is any merit to alternative asset classes as investments. We unpack the extra layer of complexity associated with predicting returns on alternative assets, how to approach calculating returns, and why the associated fees are an essential consideration. We also hear details about an interesting conference Cameron recently attended and briefly recap cryptocurrencies as an investment. You’ll also hear our conversation with our 22 in 22 reading challenge guest David Senra about his reading habits, the books that most inspire him, and his advice for people who want to read more.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • Outline of today’s main topic: expected returns for alternative asset classes. (0:01:51)
  • Why predicting returns of alternative asset classes has an extra layer of complexity. (0:03:18)
  • How to approach estimating the returns of private equity, specifically buyouts. (0:05:04)
  • We unpack historical data regarding the returns of private equity. (0:07:35)
  • Calculating the returns on venture capital and reasons to be cautious about it as an asset class. (0:16:35)
  • The distribution of returns from venture capital based on the market numbers. (0:20:09)
  • Learn what angel investing is and its associated returns. (0:20:54)
  • What returns on angel investing are most dependent on and why. (0:22:21)
  • The different types and the associated returns. (0:25:23)
  • Hear about the fees associated with private credit. (0:27:42)
  • We unravel the concept of hedge funds, the associated fees, and expected returns. (0:29:29)
  • A limiting factor on hedge funds: capacity constraints. (0:33:38)
  • The takeaway regarding private real estate investments. (0:36:25)
  • How private real estate is valued as an asset class. (0:37:48)
  • Cryptocurrencies and the returns to be expected. (0:39:34)
  • We discuss some of the key takeaways from today’s main topic. (0:43:30)
  • We follow up on a previous topic we covered: financial literacy. (0:45:10)
  • Find out about an interesting conference that Cameron recently attended. (0:48:46)
  • Hear about the recent reviews we have received about the podcast. (0:57:58)
  • We introduce our 22 and 22 reading challenge guest, David Senra. (01:00:15)
  • Where David’s passion for reading about founders originates from. (01:02:25)
  • David shares details about his reading habits. (01:05:57)
  • His approach to finding founders that he wants to read about. (01:08:49)
  • David’s approach to note taking while reading a book. (01:11:07)
  • We learn about the stories that have impacted David the most. (01:13:53)
  • He explains the benefits of reading a book for a second time. (01:17:11)
  • Books about founders that he thinks everyone should read. (01:19:20)
  • David’s observation of the role of luck in a founder’s success story. (01:23:19)
  • Advice he has for people who want to read more. (01:29:33)

 

Links From Today’s Episode:

 

AQR Capital Management — https://www.aqr.com/

BlackRock Asset Management — https://www.blackrock.com

Bank of America — https://www.bankofamerica.com/

‘The risk and return of venture capital’ — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X04001564

‘Performance of Private Credit Funds: A First Look' — https://jai.pm-research.com/content/21/2/31.short

‘Do Hedge Funds Hedge?’ — https://jpm.pm-research.com/content/28/1/6.short

‘The Performance of Hedge Fund Performance Fees’ — https://www.nber.org/papers/w27454

‘Higher risk, lower returns: What hedge fund investors really earn’ — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X1100016X

‘Another Look at Private Real Estate Returns by Strategy’ — https://jpm.pm-research.com/content/45/7/95/tab-pdf-trialist

'The Characteristics and Portfolio Behavior of Bitcoin Investors: Evidence from Indirect Cryptocurrency Investments' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3501549

‘Beliefs and the Disposition Effect’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3516567

‘Once Bitten, Twice Shy: The Power of Personal Experiences in Risk Taking’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2506627

S&P Global FinLit Survey — https://gflec.org/initiatives/sp-global-finlit-survey/

Future Proof Conference — https://futureproof.advisorcircle.com/

Invest Like the Best Podcast — https://investlikethebest.libsyn.com/

David Senra on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-senra-278843236/

David Senra on Twitter — https://twitter.com/FoundersPodcast?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

David Senra on Facebook — https://www.facebook.com/david.senra.1

The Founders Podcast — https://founders.simplecast.com/

A Triumph of Genius — https://www.amazon.com/Triumph-Genius-Edwin-Polaroid-Patent/dp/1627227695

Cable Cowboy — https://www.amazon.com/Cable-Cowboy-Malone-Modern-Business/

Titan — https://www.amazon.com/Rare-Chernow-Titan-Life-Rockefeller/

A Man for All Markets — https://www.amazon.com/Man-All-Markets-Street-Dealer/

Against the Odds — https://www.amazon.com/Against-Odds/

Estee: A Success Story — https://www.amazon.com/Estee-Success-Story-Lauder/

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.
Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/

Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/?hl=en

Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/
Ben Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/

Ben on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix

Ben on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/

Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/

Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore

Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/

 

In this episode, we speak to Chris DeRose, software developer and former co-host of the Bitcoin Uncensored podcast, about both the downsides and upsides of cryptocurrencies and the associated technologies. We took the time to dive deep into the subject with Chris and learned about some of the common misconceptions about blockchain technology, the value of cryptocurrencies to society, ways in which the crypto space has evolved, using economic theories to understand financial systems, the definition of money, what he thinks about the associated technologies, the role blockchain technology can have in society and why cryptocurrencies will not replace the dollar.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • The motivation behind Chris’s decision to get involved with Bitcoin in 2010. (0:00:48)
  • How the Bitcoin community has evolved since Chris got involved in 2010. (0:03:00)
  • Some of the common misconceptions associated with blockchain technology. (0:06:03)
  • Whether new technologies pushing back against regulations is common. (0:08:08)
  • Ways in which Chris’s perception of crypto has changed since he discovered it. (0:09:53)
  • Chris explains what his definition of money is. (0:11:19)
  • Find out what Bitcoin actually is, if it is not money. (0:14:39)
  • Aspects of the current financial system that Bitcoin improves on. (0:16:42)
  • A discussion around the recent controversy regarding Canadian trucker convoys. (0:17:54)
  • Some of the problems anonymity associated with cryptocurrencies causes. (0:20:33)
  • Why not being able to verify transactions is a problem for privacy coins. (0:21:18)
  • A discussion about the US monetary system and the US dollar. (0:24:12)
  • Chris discusses the reliance on economic theories to understand the economy. (0:30:59)
  • What he thinks about crypto markets through the lens of market efficiency. (0:32:26)
  • Whether crypto markets can be manipulated or not. (0:33:49)
  • Why Chris thinks Bitcoin will not make traditional regulations around payments obsolete. (0:35:32)
  • Another discussion regarding the economy through a theoretical lens. (0:39:15)
  • Reasons why Chris thinks cryptocurrencies have value. (0:40:32)
  • Chris explains what fungible value is. (0:45:49)
  • Why Bitcoin is regarded as digital gold. (0:49:25)
  • How possible it is for Bitcoin to replace the dollar. (0:50:46)
  • Chris tells us if he thinks Bitcoin and Ethereum are (0:53:39)
  • Why Chris thinks there is a mythical aspect to the economy. (1:00:49)
  • We find out if Chris thinks blockchains are immutable. (1:02:29)
  • Immutability: find out if this is a good aspect of cryptocurrencies. (1:03:37)
  • An explanation of consensus and if proof of work alternatives offer solutions. (1:04:33)
  • Reasons why he thinks Vitalik Buterin is a charlatan. (1:09:22)
  • Chris tells us if Vitalik’s claims are living-up to the expectations. (1:12:41)
  • The role that blockchains can play regarding international money transfers. (1:15:22)
  • Outline of how ransomware could be beneficial to society. (1:16:20)
  • How possible is it to see nation-states existing only on the blockchain. (1:17:43)
  • Learn what value private blockchains offer. (1:18:37)
  • What are the most promising crypto products/technologies in Chris’s opinion. (1:19:49)
  • The technical aspects of NFTs are explained. (1:21:23)
  • Find out what his opinion on DAOs is. (1:24:20)
  • Examples of the best application of smart contracts that Chris has seen. (1:25:13)
  • Whether cryptocurrencies and public blockchains are revolutionary technology. (1:27:38)
  • What role cryptocurrencies can play in reducing wealth inequality. (1:28:35)

 

Links From Today’s Episode:

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.

Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ 

Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/

Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/

Follow us on Twitter — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind

Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder

Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix

Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore

Chris DeRose — http://www.chrisderose.com

 

The gender pay gap is still a persistent problem in today's society, reflecting the overall state of gender inequality. It is full of complexity and comprises different facets, making it hard to understand the overall situation. We have covered the topic before, but in this episode, we go into a whole new level of detail. To help us unpack the nuance of this essential topic is Colleen Ammerman, Director of the Gender Initiative at Harvard Business School. She is also the author of Glass Half-Broken, providing readers with hard evidence and detailed analysis of the different drivers of gender inequality in the workplace. We cover the basics of gender inequality, such as how it currently exists, how it manifests in the workplace, and the subtle and less obvious ways it occurs. We also find out whether men are generally aware of the problem, the obstacles that prevent men from taking action, and the power men have to initiate positive change within organizations. Colleen also untangles the intricacies of the topic, explaining why gender equality is still a pervasive problem, how gender inequality extends to promotions, how management explains away the issue, how gender equality is also beneficial for men, and the influence of perceived gender roles in career decisions. Tune in and learn about the intricacies of gender inequality, as well as the possible solutions, with Colleen Ammerman!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • We start by finding out what the current situation is for women in the workplace. (0:03:22)
  • How to quantify gender inequality symptoms in the workplace. (0:04:12)
  • Whether there are similar effects of gender inequality for men of colour. (0:05:03)
  • Why people might still deny that there is a problem concerning gender inequality. (0:05:35)
  • An outline of the career obstacles that uniquely affect women. (0:07:18)
  • Find out if men are aware that women have additional barriers to overcome. (0:12:03)
  • Reasons why women may leave the workplace before retaining a leadership role. (0:14:05)
  • Colleen explains how we know from the data that women have less interest in higher-paying technical jobs. (0:16:14)
  • Learn if the adjusted gender pay gap data diminish the findings of using unadjusted gender pay gap data. (0:18:47)
  • Ways in which the gender pay gap extends to promotions and compensation. (0:20:34)
  • Colleen tells us why it is important for society to strive for more women in leadership positions. (0:21:26)
  • The general response from men to workplace diversity initiatives. (0:22:07)
  • What men should be doing in the workplace to help reduce inequalities that exist. (0:26:25)
  • The ways corporate directors explain the underrepresentation of women and people of colour on boards. (0:29:15)
  • Why we don't see more men taking action to combat gender inequality issues. (0:31:05)
  • She explains what homophily is and its role in workplace diversity. (0:33:13)
  • How the language in job descriptions determines who applies for the position. (0:37:04)
  • Whether there is evidence to support the notion that women prefer a growth-mindset environment to a fixed-mindset environment. (0:40:00)
  • What men, who are not in leadership positions, can do to overcome gender inequality problems in the workplace. (0:43:02)
  • What companies need to be aware of regarding hybrid and remote-work models. (0:47:14)
  • The steps men can take to overcome gender inequality outside of the workplace. (0:50:29)
  • We learn what managers can do to attract more diverse candidates. (0:52:52)
  • Whether there is data on the effect that gender has on hiring decisions. (0:54:22)
  • How gender norms or biases affect employee evaluation. (0:56:01)
  • Actions that women can take to advance their careers in an unequal environment. (0:59:53)
  • Colleen explains the issues of negotiations for men and women. (01:04:03)
  • The role parents can play to combat the issues of gender parity. (01:05:13)
  • We end the episode by learning how Colleen defines success in her life. (01:06:03)

 

Book From Today’s Episode:

Glass Half-Broken: Shattering the Barriers That Still Hold Women Back at Workhttps://amzn.to/3xbp2CG

 

Links From Today’s Episode:

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.

Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/

Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix

Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/

Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore

Colleen Ammerman on Twitter — https://twitter.com/colleenammerman

Colleen Ammerman on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/colleenammerman/

Today, we speak to Vili Lehdonvirta, Professor of Economics, Sociology, and Digital Social Research at the Oxford Internet Institute at the University of Oxford. Professor Lehdonvirta is a social scientist whose research focuses on ways digital technologies are reshaping the organization of economies, including their associated social effects. He is also the author of two books, Cloud Empires and Virtual Economies, which provide readers with an in-depth look into the power that crypto platforms hold and a well-rounded characterization of digital markets. In this episode, we talk about the ideological underpinnings of crypto and the role of governance in making cryptocurrencies possible. We discuss the role of states in scaling markets, how states and platform companies differ, the impacts of smart contracts on governance issues, and how control and power are centralized within crypto markets, as well as the social implications of blockchain technology. Listeners will also learn about past controversies within the crypto space, why people are still needed within crypto, and the blockchain paradox, plus more!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • We start by learning about John Perry Barlow’s vision for cyberspace. [0:05:06]
  • Find out about the role that states play in markets. [0:07:03]
  • How markets function at scale if the state is not involved. [0:07:55]
  • Professor Lehdonvirta’s view on whether governance may precede markets. [0:08:59]
  • The role massive platform companies play in today’s economy. [0:09:44]
  • Ways in which states and platform companies differ. [0:10:42]
  • Why he thinks public blockchain technology has garnered so much attention. [0:11:27]
  • An explanation of the influence John Perry Barlow’s vision had on cryptocurrencies. [0:13:04]
  • Learn what a Kleroterion is and the role it played in Athenian democracy. [0:14:01]
  • Professor Lehdonvirta shares what it means to ‘trust in the code.’ [0:17:05]
  • An outline of the new properties smart contracts created. [0:18:59]
  • Social and economic implications of unstoppable censorship-resistant contracts. [0:21:08]
  • A brief rundown of how impactful smart contracts have been. [0:22:27]
  • How the trustless and unstoppable claims of cryptocurrencies and DAOs were affected by the DAO story. [0:24:20]
  • Whether the Bitcoin block-size conflict affected the perception of crypto as a trustless system. [0:28:17]
  • We find out the current size of the Bitcoin development team. [0:31:05]
  • Other examples of human discretion affecting the direction of Bitcoin. [0:31:46]
  • Professor Lehdonvirta explains the strategies used to preserve trustlessness after the human interventions took place. [0:35:16]
  • Details about an important strategy: the appeal to technical expertise. [0:38:53]
  • Find out if the ability to fork blockchain networks restores trustless claims of crypto. [0:39:42]
  • Whether users of a blockchain network, who are not miners, can influence crypto markets. [0:45:02]
  • Professor Lehdonvirta’s opinion on who has the most control over cryptocurrency networks. [0:49:35]
  • Hear what aspect of Athenian democracy Nakamoto failed to replicate. [0:54:26]
  • We learn what the blockchain paradox is (also known as the governance paradox). [0:56:50]
  • Find out if Professor Lehdonvirta thinks technology changes the fundamental aspects which shape how societies are organized. [01:00:11]
  • Find out if blockchain has eliminated the need for nation-states. [01:02:11]
  • What cryptocurrencies have accomplished since their inception. [01:03:40]

What impact does financial literacy have on decision-making and financial outcomes? How is financial literacy tested? In this episode, we help listeners understand why financial literacy is vital in terms of financial well-being. Learn the definition of financial literacy, how financial literacy relates to economic outcomes, the differences between people who are financially literate and those that are not, and the contribution of financial knowledge to human capital. We discuss the topic through the perspective of several papers that will challenge how you think about financial literacy and the questions to ask yourself to test your financial understanding. Then, we talk about this week's book review regarding the effects of technology on communication and the various distractions associated with a traditional work environment. We also go through the various reviews received about the show and what we have planned for the Rational Reminder community.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • Breakdown of changes made to the format of current and future episodes. [0:01:49]
  • Introduction to today’s topic: expected returns of financial literacy. [0:07:34]
  • Learn the definition of financial literacy. [0:09:36]
  • The predictive power of financial literacy concerning financial outcomes. [0:10:27]
  • What financially literate people are better at and how it increases human capital. [0:11:34]
  • The cost of financial ignorance to the individual. [0:13:06]
  • Overview of an interesting paper concerning active investing. [0:14:43]
  • A dangerous observation within the financial literacy research [0:16:34]
  • Find out how financial literacy is measured. [0:20:10]
  • Whether it is safer to put your money into one business or to invest. [0:21:23]
  • An important aspect of financial literacy is discussed: inflation. [0:22:34]
  • Why numeracy is also a fundamental aspect of financial literacy. [0:24:25]
  • We go through the topic of compound interest in relation to financial literacy. [0:24:57]
  • Hear what the global distribution of financial literacy is. [0:27:04]
  • How to approach the financial literacy problem from a policy perspective. [0:27:59]
  • We review the book, Reclaiming Conversation, and discuss communication problems technology causes. [0:35:08]
  • Examples of the different distractions associated with office spaces. [0:41:55]
  • Reasons why meetings should be thought out with clear objectives. [0:44:45]
  • Ways in which your phone can distract you from deep work. [0:46:36]
  • Steps that social media companies could take to reduce screen time. [0:51:12]
  • We go through recent reviews and suggestions received about the show. [0:52:22]

Welcome to our limited edition crypto series. In this episode, we welcome back Professor John Cochrane, who was a guest on the Rational Reminder series, to talk everything money. Professor Cochrane has immense experience on the topic and is a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford, as well as Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. He is also a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, an adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute, and was a professor of finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. He is also the author of several books and writes a popular blog called The Grumpy Economist. In this episode, we take a deep dive into the concept of money. We learn what numeraire is, how a numeraire is defined, and explore some of the intricacies of money. We also discuss and unpack the differences between fiscal theory and monetary theory, along with other ideas regarding the value of money. We then delve into how all this relates to cryptocurrencies, what future he sees for crypto, and much more. Tuning into this episode, listeners will challenge their thinking about the economy and how economic relations work.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • Professor John Cochrane explains to us the short version of fiscal theory. [0:04:35]
  • Find out the definition of numeraire and how it is determined within an economy. [0:05:21]
  • Learn whether government backing is required to define a numeraire. [0:07:05]
  • What Professor John Cochrane thinks is the primary function of money. [0:08:55]
  • Whether money needs to be a medium of exchange that stores value. [0:09:45]
  • He explains why money is valuable according to fiscal theory. [0:11:22]
  • The role of taxes in adding to the value of money according to fiscal theory. [0:12:59]
  • How fiscal theory’s explanation for why money is valuable differs from the monetarist explanation. [0:13:33]
  • Find out whether the term fiat’ is still a good adjective to describe money in a fiscal world. [0:17:24]
  • We learn if ‘fiat’ is an appropriate term to describe money according to the monetarist view. [0:19:10]
  • What the government debt valuation equations suggest about the stability of the price level. [0:20:21]
  • An outline of what happens when discount rates become volatile. [0:23:29]
  • Ways in which sticky prices affect the stability of the price level. [0:27:24]
  • Whether the supply of money is still a useful perspective today. [0:31:01]
  • Why monetarism theory has gained so much traction. [0:33:51]
  • He unpacks the purpose of monetarism theory. [0:35:21]
  • How fiscal and monetary actions set expected and unexpected inflation regarding fiscal theory. [0:37:10]
  • The level of fiscal and monetary coordination required for price stability. [0:39:58]
  • Whether the level of coordination needed is realistic considering the independence of the central bank. [0:42:10]
  • Ways in which monetary policy debt sales and fiscal policy debt sales differ. [0:45:02]
  • What effect the size of the central bank's balance sheet has on the price level. [0:49:52]
  • Repercussions of inside money issued by private banks on the price level. [0:53:06]
  • Statistical tests available that can be used to prove fiscal theory. [0:58:55]
  • Find out why COVID-related effects on the economy lead to inflation. [1:04:17]
  • Breakdown of the fiscal explanation for the US inflation of the 1970s. [1:11:24]
  • Reasons why inflation targets have been successful in some countries and not in others. [1:16:14]
  • A discussion about whether we have always lived in a fiscal-based economy. [1:19:24]
  • Whether citizens should behave differently living in a fiscal world. [1:27:51]
  • How the value of the dollar will be affected if more people buy cryptocurrencies. [1:28:49]
  • Professor John Cochrane shares if he thinks anonymous digital cash is a good thing. [1:30:51]
  • We discuss what the future has in store with regard to fiscal theory. [1:39:31]

The indexing revolution is something that underpins all of our work here at the Rational Reminder and is a subject we reference in different ways in almost all of our episodes. Today we have a special exploration of this history, as we welcome Gus Sauter, the former long-time CIO of Vanguard, to talk about his incredible history at the firm, the role he played in the rise of the company, and its huge role in reforming the investing landscape. We also hear from our guest about his experience of working on numerous investing committees since he retired about a decade ago. One of the most notable things about this conversation is Gus' ability to weigh both sides of the arguments about active management, and he does a great job of balancing what he sees as the potential positives of this way of doing things. This is all strengthen by the way he presents these ideas as a powerful mix of stories, evidence, and the research he himself has conducted. To all our listeners, be sure to listen right to the end of the episode, as after the official conversation ends, Gus shared a few more thoughts on Jack Bogle and ETFs as a bonus.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

(0:03:49) Looking back at the part that indexing played at Vanguard when Gus started at the company.

(0:04:20) The rise of indexing in the subsequent years and the pivotal moments in this process.

(0:06:28) Initial ways that indexing was denigrated by Vanguard's competition.

(0:08:36) How the narrative changed around indexing when its utility became undeniable.

(0:09:10) The role of the University of Chicago in the growth of indexing early on.

(0:11:11) Changes in the active management space over the last few decades.

(0:12:04) Considering the role of an active manager in today's climate.

(0:14:43) Gus' opinion on balancing the strengths of indexing and active management.

(0:20:48) Differences between traditional active management and factor investing, and Gus' preferences.

(0:29:09) A look at Vanguard's recent forays into factor-based funds.

(0:31:00) Recounting Jack Bogle's thoughts on active management at different points.

(0:32:27) Evaluating active managers; weighing the processes and their maintenance.

(0:35:09) Vanguard's relative low fees and how this impacted their success.

(0:36:35) How Vanguard went about selecting investment managers.

(0:38:44) Gus talks about the structure of Vanguard; what it meant to be a truly mutual company.

(0:41:19) Thoughts on home country bias and global diversification in light of countries like Canada.

(0:45:07) Approaches to private equity; Gus' recommendations for the average investor.

(0:48:30) Access to private markets and the prohibitive effect of high fees.

(0:51:25) Accounting for the recent large flows towards private equity and the current institutional philosophy around it.

(0:54:10) Gus talks about the important questions he asks when joining a new investment committee.

(0:56:30) Comments on hedge funds and liquid assets, and their decreased returns.

(0:59:50) The psychological benefits of holding a single fund.

(1:02:44) Gus comments on how direct indexing might figure into the future.

(1:09:20) The education of investors; Gus talks about where he believes Vanguard's biggest success lies.

(1:11:48) Reflection on the impact of introducing the implementation of ETFs at Vanguard.

(1:12:56) Areas that still excite Gus about investing; the good and bad sides of increased opportunity.

(1:14:48) Gus' definition of success and his gratitude for finding a home at Vanguard.

(1:17:07) Bonus content: Gus talks about Jack Bogle's relationships with ETFs.

Welcome to another episode from our limited edition crypto series. The previous guests we have spoken to about crypto generally have experience in economics, finance, or technology. In this episode, we have a look at crypto through a legal lens with Professor William Magnuson, an Associate Professor of Law at Texas A&M University School of Law. He is also the author of Blockchain Democracy, which provides readers with a guide into the world of blockchain and Bitcoin, and highlights the reasons for their growing popularity. In our conversation, we delve into everything law and order within the crypto world as Professor Magnuson explains the causes of crime, the jurisdiction of crypto, the impact of decentralized cryptocurrency on the legal system, and how to overcome the legal challenges surrounding crypto. We also talk about the underlying ideology of crypto, the origins of cypherpunks, the people who are being negatively affected by, mechanisms to enforce regulations, and much more. Tune in to learn more about crypto and blockchain through the lens of the law with Professor Magnuson! Key Points From This Episode: A brief overview of the political philosophies of Thomas Hobbes and John Locke. [0:02:48] Find out which of the two political philosophies is closer to reality. [0:04:55] What it means for political or economic systems to be decentralized. [0:05:26] An overview of the advantages and disadvantages of a decentralized system. [0:07:36] Causes of a decentralized system to become centralized. [0:09:54] Where power in an initially decentralized system tends to centralize. [0:11:38] The systems that democracies use to maintain a desired level of decentralization. [0:12:33] How close the underlying political philosophy of Bitcoin falls to the philosophies of Locke and Hobbes. [0:13:34] We learn about the origins of cypherpunks and the associated ideology. [0:14:55] Whether the current state of our world resembles the dystopian future that the cypherpunks imagined. [0:16:41] Why digital cash was so important to cypherpunks and why early attempts failed. [0:17:36] The relationship between anonymity and crime is explained. [0:20:16] What role crime has played in the development and proliferation of cryptocurrencies. [0:22:48] Why comparing cryptocurrency to cash as a similar mechanism for crime is incorrect. [0:25:53] Professor Magnuson explains how social norms affect criminal behaviour. [0:27:48] He outlines the norms seen empirically within the blockchain communities. [0:30:12] Challenges in applying existing laws and regulations to cryptocurrencies. [0:33:04] Where cryptocurrencies fall under current regulatory and legal interpretations. [0:37:44] Whether cryptocurrencies are a regulation problem or a law problem. [0:39:43] How to enforce regulations and laws for cryptocurrencies. [0:40:44] He tells us if public blockchains jeopardize the existing legal system and democracy. [0:43:17] The costs of lightly regulated or unregulated markets in terms of capital allocation. [0:47:11] Who is bearing the cost of unregulated markets. [0:51:09] Hear what he thinks blockchain's greatest accomplishments are so far. [0:51:36] We end the show by hearing whether professor Magnuson thinks it is a revolutionary technology. [0:53:07]

We start the show with a brief highlight of recent episodes, upcoming guests, and feedback we have received about the show. We then review the book Running Remote, which provides evidence for the benefits of working remotely and asynchronous management. We also outline the three essential principles of an asynchronous mindset. We discuss the positives and benefits of remote work, why hybrid work is a flawed approach, and how to recreate face-to-face meetings in a remote world. We also give listeners a breakdown of an interesting journal article about inferring stock duration and equity trades, including key takeaways from the papers. We then welcome our special guest, Harley Finkelstein, to talk about the role that reading plays in his life. Harley is a lawyer, entrepreneur, and the President of Shopify and uses what he reads to push him further in his professional life. In our conversation, we learn the role reading has played in Shopify’s culture, what his favourite books are, and inner details about his reading habit. Tune in for another jam-packed episode!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • We start the show with a recap of previous episodes and upcoming guests. [0:00:00]
  • A brief highlight of some of the reviews we have received about the show. [0:03:41]
  • An update on the Rational Reminder 22 and 22 reading challenge. [0:06:35]
  • This week’s review of the book, Running Remote. [0:09:24]
  • The three fundamental principles of the asynchronous mindset. [0:16:58]
  • Hear what the seven deadly sins are regarding remote team transitions. [0:24:35]
  • Cameron shares a compelling paragraph from the book, Running Remote. [0:28:04]
  • Learn a mind-blowing statistic Cameron read in a Bloomberg article. [0:32:31]
  • Ben breaks down a journal article about inferring stock duration. [0:33:47]
  • Another interesting paper regarding the retail price of equity trades. [0:44:10]
  • Introduction to our guest Harley Finkelstein to talk about our 22 and 22 challenge. [0:47:20]
  • Harley shares details about his reading habit. [0:47:50]
  • How he incorporates what he has learned from reading into his professional life. [0:49:57]
  • Ways in which Harley finds interesting books to read. [0:51:58]
  • The role reading has played in Shopify’s culture and work ethic. [0:53:57]
  • What books have had the biggest impact on him. [0:58:12]
  • Find out whether his daughters have embraced his love for books. [1:02:29]
  • Advice that Harley has for people who want to read more. [1:04:32]

What is the real value of cryptocurrencies? Can crypto technology be applied to traditional financial markets? In this episode, we welcome David Gerard, a technologist and author of the books Libra Shrugged and Attack of the 50 Foot Blockchain.  He uses his skills as a journalist to investigate the uses and hype around cryptocurrencies and is an outspoken skeptic of the technology. Although not originally from the technology sector, he has become an authority on the topic and has briefed the UK House of Commons Science and Technology Committee on the technology. He also runs a blog covering important aspects of the cryptocurrency space. In today’s conversation, we learn some harsh realities about the benefits of cryptocurrencies and why they will not last in the long term. We learn what the real value of crypto-markets is, why he considers it to be a Ponzi scheme, what needs to change about cryptocurrencies, whether there are any benefits to the technology and the role of financial journalism in the crypto space. Listen as we unravel the political ideology which underpins crypto and whether it can be separated from the technology. We also discuss the outcome of El Salvador’s bitcoin experiment and why it did not work. We also learn the reasons behind the recent crash in some crypto markets and find out which book David thinks everyone should read.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • We start the show by finding out the real dollar value of crypto markets. [0:03:45]
  • The role financial journalism played in getting crypto to where it is today. [0:06:02]
  • Reasons why he does not trust the value of cryptocurrencies. [0:11:04]
  • Why he thinks cryptocurrency journalism is not credible. [0:12:00]
  • He explains Bitcoin’s underlying political ideology and the associated problems. [0:13:25]
  • The classic debate of who should have control over financial markets. [0:16:41]
  • Whether it is possible to remove the political ideology from crypto-technology. [0:17:34]
  • What the most important aspect of cryptocurrency technology is. [0:18:24]
  • The reasoning behind the argument, ‘You just don’t understand the technology.’ [0:21:52]
  • How to make cryptocurrency work in traditional financial markets. [0:23:50]
  • Why the recent crash in the cryptocurrency markets occurred. [0:28:03]
  • Find out if cryptocurrencies can be beneficial for the ‘bankless’. [0:30:25]
  • We discuss the outcome of El Salvador’s bitcoin experiment. [0:32:20]
  • He outlines why Salvadorans did not like the proposed bitcoin market. [0:38:11]
  • Learn what the UK House of Commons Science and Technology Committee wanted to understand about cryptocurrency. [0:41:23]
  • How his views on cryptocurrency were received by the commission. [0:43:46]
  • An example of a crypto-based business that was operating illegally. [0:45:01]
  • Whether NFTs will allow artists and musicians to keep more financial gains from their work. [0:46:13]
  • We discuss whether crypto-based technologies will improve over time. [0:47:57]
  • Examples of good uses for crypto and blockchain technology. [0:49:22]
  • What would need to happen for David to change his opinion on crypto. [0:52:25]

Identity helps shape our perception and thinking about the world around us. What is identity? How does it influence our perspective? These are some of the questions we answer in this episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast. In this episode, we talk with Jay Van Bavel, an Associate Professor of Psychology and Neuroscience at the University of New York, an affiliate at the Stern School of Business in Management and Organizations, and Director of the Social Identity and Morality Lab. He is also co-author of the book The Power of Us, which provides readers with cutting-edge research in psychology and neuroscience to explain how identity really works and how we can harness it for the better. His research focuses on how group identities, moral values, and political beliefs shape the mind, brain, and behaviour. He has published over 100 academic publications on the topic and has won various awards for his research achievements. In our conversation, we unpack the complexity of identity and its influence on our perspective and decision-making abilities. We cover aspects such as the differences between self-identity and group identity, how to be aware of your biases, the role that leaders play in influencing identity, and how identity plays out in social relationships. We also talk about how group identity interacts with democracy and the role of social media in shaping our identity, as well as learn some practical advice to help broaden your perspective.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • We start the show by learning the basics of group identity. [0:03:29]
  • How group identity differs from self-identity. [0:04:04]
  • He explains how impactful group identity is to individual identity. [0:05:06]
  • Whether there is good data on how many groups people typically identify with. [0:06:08]
  • How aware people are of the groups they identify with. [0:07:27]
  • Ways in which group identity affects decision-making. [0:08:12]
  • The effect group identity has on setting and achieving goals. [0:09:35]
  • General ways group identity affects social relationships. [0:15:21]
  • A deeper explanation about groups, memberships, and physical presence. [0:17:28]
  • Differences between introverts and extroverts. [0:19:18]
  • How group identity affects our thinking and perspective. [0:20:43]
  • Associate Professor Van Bavel explains how to foster social cohesion, using America as an example. [0:25:41]
  • Find out if people have a default identity that determines their perspective. [0:28:41]
  • What people can do to be aware of which identity is affecting their thinking. [0:30:10]
  • Find out if group identity affects how people learn new information. [0:31:58]
  • Whether people can change or broaden their identity to improve decision-making. [0:34:18]
  • Practical advice to help broaden someone’s perspective. [0:37:25]
  • The challenges of changing your group identity entirely. [0:39:34]
  • Steps that one can take to view the world more objectively. [0:42:04]
  • A rundown of how leaders influence the thinking and decision-making of individuals. [0:45:47]
  • An outline of what qualities to look out for in groups. [0:48:49]
  • The influence of social media on which groups people identify with. [0:52:21]
  • We learn if following people on social media with opposing views helps break down group barriers. [0:55:57]
  • An explanation of how group identities interact with democracy. [0:58:48]
  • The differences between current political divisions and past political divisions. [1:03:59]
  • How well studies on the topic can be replicated. [1:05:43]
  • We end the show by learning how Associate Professor Van Bavel defines success. [1:09:18]

In this episode, we speak to Quinn DuPont, a self-described technology historian and researcher of everything crypto. He is fascinated by what humans do and how technology affects what humans do. Quinn focuses his research on the history, meaning, use, and socio-technical development of cryptography. He has published many academic papers on the subject, including the book Cryptocurrencies and Blockchains, and is currently an adjunct professor at the UBC School of Information. He approaches investigating the world of crypto as a scientist making him neither a skeptic nor a proponent of the technology, offering listeners an objective perspective. In this episode, we unpack the basics of crypto and take a deep dive into the theoretical and technological concepts. We learn about the ideological foundations of crypto, how crypto technology will impact governance, what the definition of money is, the potential of the technology to society, and the social components associated with cryptocurrencies. We also find out the real value of crypto and learn about the ethical challenges Quinn faces as a researcher in the space.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • [0:05:16] The ideological worldview that resulted in cryptocurrencies. 
  • [0:10:51] Quinn explains his standard criticism of the critics. 
  • [0:13:43] Why the ideological origins of crypto are irrelevant today. 
  • [0:15:50] The nuance surrounding the immutability of crypto technology is discussed. 
  • [0:17:04] What the benefits of the cryptosystem are for governance. 
  • [0:19:48] How well he thinks crypto fits within a democratic society. 
  • [0:25:41] Reasons why political ideology needs to be taken into account. 
  • [0:28:19] Quinn tells us his definition of money. 
  • [0:31:18] What impact decentralized censorship-resistant monies have on society. 
  • [0:38:52] How valuable a cryptocurrency in the real world is. 
  • [0:40:48] Why paying your taxes gives money value. 
  • [0:44:25] Whether Quinn considers Bitcoin to be money. 
  • [0:46:09] He walks us through the benefits of DeFi to societies. 
  • [0:49:30] We learn what the downsides of DeFi to societies are. 
  • [0:50:22] Learn if blockchain solves any of the problems that exist in traditional finance. 
  • [0:57:57] The advantages of bitcoin-based technology for business logistics. 
  • [01:03:00] Why some blockchain business technology is marketing hype. 
  • [01:04:32] How a DAO is different from a traditional corporation. 
  • [01:10:24] Find out what would happen if we turned our podcast into a DAO. 
  • [01:15:35] Whether smart contracts replicate the role of traditional contractual relations. 
  • [01:19:51] Quinn outlines the ethical challenges to researching cryptocurrencies and blockchain. 
  • [01:27:32] Hear what he thinks the greatest disappointments and successes of crypto are. 
  • [01:31:32] We end the show by finding out if Quinn considers crypto and blockchain to be a technological revolution. 

In today’s episode, we beg the question: is factor investing worth it? Factor-tilted portfolios tend to perform independently of the market and today, we break down a few of the characteristics associated with higher expected returns, as well as the challenges of factor investing. We give a brief history of pricing models and walk step-by-step through a hypothetical factor investment; taking the Fama and French five-factor model into account. Additionally, we discuss liability duration and bond returns and speculate whether pooling finances results in greater relationship satisfaction. Tune in to hear our take on everything from book clubs and the impact of inflation on consumption liability assumptions to our final verdict on whether factor investing is, in fact, worth your while.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • The latest phenomenon of people paying to go on popular podcasts. [0:01:58]
  • Interesting feedback we’ve received for our Crypto series. [0:03:49]
  • Why not to make an investment decision based on one person's opinion. [0:04:53]
  • The evaluation skills our Crypto series equips listeners with. [0:06:05]
  • Upcoming guests on the Rational Reminder Podcast! [0:07:31]
  • Some interesting LinkedIn connections we’ve made in the past few weeks. [0:16:06]
  • Recommended book for kids: Way of the Warrior Kid 3. [0:18:11]
  • Recommended book for adults: The Psychology of Money. [0:21:08]
  • The model of our firm’s book club and our experience of it so far. [0:22:02]
  • Does pooling finances result in greater relationship satisfaction? [0:24:35]
  • Liability duration and bond returns according to the current change in bond yields. [0:26:22]
  • How inflation impacts consumption liability assumptions. [0:29:11]
  • The positive effect the changes in the bond market have had on pension funds, relative to their liabilities. [0:30:20]
  • The main topic of the day: is factor investing worth it? [0:32:30]
  • The long-term volatility for factor-tilted portfolios. [0:33:56]
  • What factor investing is and the added risk it entails. [0:34:51]
  • A brief history of pricing models. [0:35:53]
  • A few characteristics associated with higher expected returns. [0:39:25]
  • The challenges of factor investing. [0:39:47]
  • How to determine the mix of factors that captures all relevant state variable sensitivities. [0:42:56]
  • The significance of size premium. [0:46:07]
  • Speculating whether factors deliver premiums. [0:47:57]
  • The steps involved in a hypothetical factor investment. [0:48:57]
  • A few important facts about factors. [0:53:23]
  • The benefits of having more independent risk premiums in a portfolio. [0:54:56]
  • Our verdict as to whether or not factor investing is worth it. [0:57:02]
  • Why it’s important to take tracking error into account. [0:57:38]
  • The tendency of factor-tilted portfolios to perform differently from the market. [0:57:48]

There is a lot of hype surrounding cryptocurrencies and DeFi technology, with excitement around the potential innovations they offer financial systems. Often lacking in the discussion is an objective and critically informed viewpoint, leading to confusion and misunderstanding. In today’s conversation, we get the balanced perspective that we need with Professor Hilary Allen, who has a wealth of experience in banking, law, financial regulation, corporate finance, and business administration. She is a law professor at the American University of Washington College of Law and her research focuses on the impact of new financial technologies on the stability of the current finance system. She has written many academic papers on the subject, including the book Driverless Finance, which provides readers with a balanced perspective on the opportunities and threats of fintech innovations. In our candid and fascinating conversation with Professor Allen, we learn about the threats and opportunities DeFi technologies pose to the financial system. We hear what shadow banking is, the similarities that decentralized finance has with shadow banking, the risks of cryptocurrencies, if innovation in finance is always positive, why regulation is essential, whether DeFi is actually decentralized, the basics of stablecoins, how you can help affect change in the financial system, if you should invest in cryptocurrencies, and much more. Tune in to get the clarity you need about the world of crypto with expert Professor Hilary Allen!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • We start the show by learning what shadow banking is and how it is associated with the financial crisis in 2008. [0:04:05]
  • Professor Allen explains what DeFi is and gives us some examples. [0:07:16]
  • Learn about some of the innovations that DeFi technology proposes. [0:09:21]
  • Similarities between shadow banking activities and DeFi technology. [0:11:06]
  • Other risks that Professor Allen sees with the DeFi system. [0:12:12]
  • What effect replacing intermediaries with algorithms have on financial systems. [0:16:03]
  • The effect complexity has on a financial system. [0:17:19]
  • She explains what financial stability is and the objective of financial regulation. [0:19:27]
  • How the financial stability of the existing system compares to the DeFi system. [0:21:01]
  • Whether stability of the existing financial system is exposed to problems within DeFi. [0:22:14]
  • Which DeFi innovations pose the biggest risk to the current financial system. [0:23:23]
  • Find out if stablecoins could affect monetary policy. [0:25:23]
  • The regulatory lessons from the 2008 financial crisis that are relevant to DeFi. [0:26:28]
  • Outline of the problems that the existing financial system has. [0:30:44]
  • How successful DeFi has been at being decentralized. [0:33:14]
  • If Professor Allen has any concerns that regulation might stifle innovation in DeFi. [0:36:06]
  • Find out if financial innovation is always a good thing. [0:37:41]
  • What the best possible regulatory outcomes are regarding crypto and DeFi. [0:39:30]
  • Whether it is too late to regulate cryptocurrencies. [0:42:48]
  • Why Professor Allen thinks some politicians are pushing crypto-friendly agendas. [0:43:52]
  • How people can affect change in the right direction regarding the financial system. [0:46:08]

 

If you’re ready for a serious education on market elasticity, demand system pricing, and stock market flows, you’ve come to the right place (disclaimer: don’t expect light entertainment). Today’s guest is Ralph Koijen, AQR Capital Management Professor of Finance and Fama Faculty Fellow at the University of Chicago, Booth School of Business. Tune in for a fascinating conversation about some of the most fundamental characteristics of our economy. To say we learned a lot from this conversation is an understatement, and we’re sure you’ll walk away with just as many lightbulb moments and impactful lessons as we did.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • Ralph provides an in-depth explanation of demand system pricing. [0:02:48]
  • An example of how valuations can be affected while the connection between fundamentals and valuations remain relatively unaffected. [0:08:18]
  • How Ralph’s model for demand system asset pricing differs from other models. [0:41:26]
  • The two components that investor demand is made up of. [0:14:54]
  • Exploring the concept of latent demand and how to estimate it. [0:17:57]
  • How the price impact from institutions and elasticity of markets has changed over time. [0:20:34]
  • Understanding the surprising impact of households on stock market volatility in 2008. [0:20:34]
  • How latent demand can be used to predict differences in expected returns. [0:25:46]
  • Examples of factors that drive latent demand. [0:30:42]
  • The most impactful group of investors (and why this is the case). [0:33:17]
  • An overview of what would likely happen if the most influential investors switched to market cap indexing. [0:35:22]
  • How huge firms influence the setting of prices. [0:36:25]
  • Ralph shares his thoughts on the idea that index funds are distorting market prices as they continue to grow in magnitude. [0:35:22]
  • What demand system pricing tells us about the effect of socially responsible investing on prices. [0:43:01]
  • How US asset prices would be affected if foreign demand for US assets decreases. [0:35:22]
  • Inelastic versus elastic markets. [0:47:23]
  • Why prices are so much more volatile than fundamentals. [0:51:11]
  • Comparing micro-elasticity and macro-elasticity. [0:52:18]
  • Ways to estimate micro-elasticity and macro-elasticity, and the limitations of these approaches. [0:54:00]
  • Ralph’s estimate of what the macro-elasticity is. [01:01:00]
  • Risk factors that impact elasticity. [01:02:07]
  • An example which shows how flows work. [01:03:32]
  • Factors that impact how long the price impact of flows lasts. [01:05:24]
  • Dividend irrelevance in inelastic markets. [01:10:30]
  • The role of the increasing market share of cap weighted indices on market elasticity. [01:12:28]
  • How investors should behave when markets are inelastic. [01:15:11]
  • Ralph’s definition of success. [01:18:47]

For this week’s episode, we are revisiting a portion of our conversation with the legendary Professor Campbell R. Harvey and and his more optimistic viewpoint on the crypto space.  Campbell is the Professor of International Business at Duke University and is also a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. In 2016 he served as the President of the American Finance Association, and from 2006 to 2012 he occupied the incredibly demanding role of Editor for the Journal of Finance. We hear about Campbell’s latest book DeFi and the Future of Finance along with his most recent research. Discover how Campbell first became interested in the topic several years ago and decided to put together a course for his students. We also delve into the rise of decentralized finance (DeFi) and how we can expect it to shape global finance, trading, and the future of the internet. 

Welcome to another episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast! We start by reviewing The Fearless Organization, and learn some important concepts such as psychological safety in the workplace, allowing people to voice their concerns, and the value of continuously learning. We also discuss a paper on index investing followed by a quick discussion on gender equality in finance.  We then take a deep dive into today’s main topic, ‘Stocks for the Long Run…?’, by unpacking research to see if stocks are still a valuable long-term investment. Finally, we end the show with a conversation about our 22 and 22 book challenge with Mark Sutcliffe, and find out about his reading habits and the books that have had the biggest impact on him.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • An update about the podcast and feedback received about the crypto series. [0:03:55]
  • A rundown of the guests we have planned for future episodes. [0:07:43]
  • Outline of the ‘mixed-bag’ reviews received about the show. [0:08:28]
  • News and updates regarding the Rational Reminder reading challenge. [0:13:07]
  • This week’s book review of The Fearless Organization by Amy C. Edmondson. [0:14:45]
  • We talk about an interesting paper ‘On Index Investing’ [0:24:42]
  • Follow-up on and discussion concerning gender equality in finance from previous episodes. [0:28:34]
  • We dig into today’s main topic, ‘Stocks for the Long Run.’ [0:33:38]
  • Issues surrounding using Stocks for the Long Run data to draw insights. [0:35:22]
  • What has been achieved to solve issues regarding a lack of data on stock returns. [0:41:45]
  • An important insight from research on the value of stocks and bonds in the long term. [0:47:17]
  • A breakdown of some interesting findings from the paper, ‘Global factor premiums’. [0:48:00]
  • Overview of the research discussed and whether stocks are still valuable long-term investments. [0:53:54]
  • The Rational Reminder 22 and 22 book challenge conversation with Mark Sutcliffe. [0:55:09]
  • What Mark has discovered about the world of social media while working remotely. [0:56:58]
  • Mark shares details about his reading habit and his favourite books growing up. [0:57:53]
  • Whether he has a favourite genre of book. [01:00:11]
  • How Mark sources books to read and how he captures interesting information. [01:00:44]
  • The books that Mark commonly recommends to family and friends. [01:03:05]
  • Find out if Mark thinks being an author changes how you read books. [01:05:12]
  • Advice that he has for people who want to read more. [01:06:33]

Welcome back to another comprehensive and informative episode in this limited series of the Rational Reminder Podcast, a weekly reality check about the world of cryptocurrencies. We are lucky to have another respected figure in the crypto world on our show, technology veteran Tim O’Reilly. Tim is a well-known educator and publisher in the crypto community and the Founder, CEO, and Chairman of O'Reilly Media. He has been involved in the technology industry since the inception and rise of Silicon Valley and, with over 35 years of industry experience, he is known for popularizing the terms ‘open-source software’ and ‘Web 2.0’ and is a respected commentator on the space. In today’s show, we do a lot of looking backwards with Tim and draw insight from his vast experience in the industry to discuss what the future of cryptocurrencies holds. We also talk about what separates companies that survive from those that do not, problems in society that blockchain technology can be used for, and changes that have taken place in the technology industry during Tim’s career, as well as what the definition of true innovation is, and much more.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • What Tim’s definition of a technology unicorn is. [0:03:07]
  • The problems that Web3 could solve and what makes a product innovative. [0:04:39]
  • Differences between companies that survived the .com bust and those that did not. [0:11:05]
  • Whether Tim thinks there are promising projects in the crypto or Web3 space. [0:18:36]
  • How society would change if Web3 became the new normal. [0:22:19]
  • Examples of the applications blockchain technology could have for record-keeping. [0:24:36]
  • Tim shares his thought son whether or not we need blockchain technology for aspects where the state is involved. [0:27:24]
  • Ways in which the evolution of crypto has changed Tim’s mental map of the future. [0:31:37]
  • The role public blockchains could play in breaking the recentralization trend in decentralized technologies. [0:35:02]
  • Tim tells us if he thinks centralization is a bad thing. [0:37:15]
  • Past mistakes and innovation within the tech industry. [0:41:39]
  • Tim’s opinion on the support of Web3 from venture capitalists. [0:44:02]
  • Whether or not building technology outside of the government's reach is the right way to improve society. [0:46:46]
  • Advice Tim has for those who are looking to get rich from cryptocurrencies. [0:50:35]

If you have any interest in private equity or have thought about it as an asset class, then this episode is for you! What is private equity? This might seem a simple question but the answer is more complex than you think. Private equity is a nuanced subject that requires a deep understanding to make successful investments. To help unpack this non-trivial subject is expert Ludovic Phalippou, a Professor of Financial Economics at the University of Oxford Saïd Business School. Although he studied economics in general, his research mainly focuses on unravelling the complexities of private equity. He has written many papers on the topic, including a book called Private Equity Laid Bare. He has a Masters in Economics and a Masters in Mathematical Finance from the University of Southern California and a Ph.D. in Finance from INSEAD, making him well versed in the subject. Besides his impressive qualifications and experience, his insight and ability to speak to the data make him stand out from other experts. In our conversation, we get into the basics of private equity and what makes it attractive to investors. During our conversation we discuss the challenges for measuring performance, how to best measure the performance of private equity funds, the different facets associated with private equity, how to tell if certain private equities are a good investment, and the differences between private and public equity. We also hear how it is applied as he walks us through some real-world scenarios and gives us some insider knowledge on the best private equity options. As you will hear from our conversation, there is no easy answer!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • We learn what asset classes are included in the broad term of private equity. [0:03:39]
  • The end-to-end process for investing in a typical private equity fund. [0:06:49]
  • The challenges with measuring the performance of private equity managers. [0:09:48]
  • How investments that have not yet been sold are treated when a manager is reporting on their performance. [0:12:48]
  • Professor Phalippou explains how well the IRR captures the economic results delivered by a fund. [0:14:04]
  • Whether there are alternative approaches to evaluating performance. [0:17:52]
  • A discussion about the typical characteristics of a buyout fund. [0:19:35]
  • The best approach for evaluating your private equity. [0:21:24]
  • Find out if a public equity benchmark has to be adjusted for leverage, regarding buyouts. [0:24:26]
  • We learn about the fees that private equity limited partners typically pay. [0:26:34]
  • Outline of the less obvious fees that limited partners might be paying. [0:28:11]
  • Whether an investor paying carry is a sign that the investment has done well. [0:31:07]
  • Comparison of private equity performance relative to public equities. [0:32:31]
  • What number Professor Phalippou would assign on an expected return to private equity, as an asset class. [0:38:46]
  • How successful investing in private equity has been for institutional investors. [0:39:32]
  • The performance of Blackstone and KKR is discussed relative to an average private equity fund. [0:42:11]
  • We get details about the Yale situation and how it manifested. [0:44:24]
  • Reasons why private equity is regarded as the best performing asset class for institutions. [0:45:32]
  • Professor Phalippou tells us if he thinks private equity offers diversification benefits to a public equity portfolio. [0:46:01]
  • He discusses a recent case study regarding Hilton. [0:47:11]
  • Why he thinks sophisticated investors are allocating funds to private equity. [0:48:14]
  • Professor Phalippou shares how to be successful when investing in private equity. [0:50:00]
  • Whether the returns of private equity can be replicated in public equity. [0:53:09]
  • How Professor Phalippou defines success. [0:55:18]
  • We end the show by finding out if the value premium is risk-based or behaviour-based. [0:55:35]

Dr. Nicholas Weaver’s well-known lectures on cryptocurrencies explain why he believes it needs to be “burned with fire.” Today, we speak to Dr. Weaver, an expert in computer science and a long-time observer of the cryptocurrency space. He holds a BA in Astrophysics and Computer Science and a Ph.D. in Computer Science from UC Berkeley, where he was also a lecturer until recently. His primary research focus has been network security, among other topics. His interest and search for comedy “godl” have also resulted in published papers on cryptocurrency. In our conversation, Dr. Weaver untangles the complexities of the perceptions of cryptocurrencies with the actual technology. We talk about decentralization, if cryptocurrencies are achieving it, and the underlying concept of blockchain technology, as well as whether or not blockchains are secure and what the potential benefits of cryptocurrencies are to developing countries. We then go into detail about why Dr. Weaver thinks the crypto space is not beneficial, why prestigious academic institutions are teaching about it, and why he thinks it will never work in the log-run. Please tune in for a truly eye-opening, no-holds-barred episode as we learn the harsh truth about cryptocurrencies with expert, Dr. Nicholas Weaver!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • What public blockchain technology can achieve that was not previously possible. [0:02:51]
  • How well the original concept, introduced by Satoshi Nakamoto, is living up to its theoretical promise. [0:04:06]
  • Weaver explains and outlines the general appeal of decentralization. [0:04:57]
  • He elaborates on his perspective on trusted and honest authorities. [0:09:39]
  • An explanation of how Lightning Network attempts to solve throughput limitation. [0:10:36]
  • We find out if major blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum are decentralized. [0:13:08]
  • Differences between how nodes and miners influence the network. [0:16:23]
  • How secure public blockchains really are. [0:17:45]
  • Whether a facility for censorship-resistant transactions, like Bitcoin, is a good thing for society. [0:20:30]
  • Potential benefits of cryptocurrencies for people in countries with limited access to banking and a good legal system. [0:24:35]
  • Steps governments can take to regulate and control cryptocurrencies. [0:26:47]
  • Weaver’s opinion on why the regulation of cryptocurrencies has been so slow. [0:29:17]
  • Outline of how Dr. Weaver sees cryptocurrencies developing in future. [0:31:38]
  • How to incentivize miners not to attack the system to retain the value of Bitcoin. [0:38:24]
  • Weaver on how stablecoins fit into the crypto ecosystem and if they’re decentralized. [0:39:18]
  • A rundown of the new properties the blockchain data structure provides. [0:45:59]
  • Find out if Walmart using a private blockchain is just marketing hype. [0:51:20]
  • Why the popularity of cryptocurrencies amongst venture capitalists is rising. [0:53:12]
  • Why prominent schools like MIT and Cornell are emphasizing blockchain programs. [0:55:23]
  • Weaver explains what the smartest way to invest is, in his opinion. [0:58:34]
  • Who the technologists in the crypto-space are that he respects professionally. [0:59:51]
  • He tells us whether he has heard any compelling arguments for cryptocurrencies. [1:00:31]
  • A discussion about Dunning-Kruger economics in relation to cryptocurrencies. [1:04:38]
  • What the general opinion of other technologists is on crypto and blockchain. [1:06:23]
  • We end the show with a final takeaway from Dr. Weaver. [1:07:31]

Welcome to another episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast! In today’s jam-packed episode, we start by going through the feedback received on our limited crypto series and outline upcoming guests. We also give a breakdown of Cal Newport’s book, Deep Work, and the importance and long-term benefits of engaging in deep work. We then follow-up on our recent episode with Rebecca Walker by discussing gender equality in financial planning. Lastly, tune in to also have a rundown of the housing market and its investment potential, price risks associated with home ownership, the effects homeowner’s occupation has on their household investment and more!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • We go through feedback received on the limited edition crypto series. [0:01:40]
  • An outline of the upcoming guests we are going to have on the show. [0:05:51]
  • This week’s book review, Deep Work written by Cal Newport. [0:09:01]
  • Some of the common workplace problems highlighted in the book. [0:14:30]
  • How work can be more enjoyable than free time and reasons why. [0:15:56]
  • Ways to overcome common workplace problems and engage with ‘deep work.’ [0:16:47]
  • The long-term benefits of engaging with deep work and why it is needed. [0:20:21]
  • A follow-up on our recent episode with Rebecca Walker and the feedback received. [0:20:49]
  • Discussion about the data that is related to Rebecca’s points from the episode. [0:22:10]
  • We unravel the nuance concerning the gender pay gap and financial planning. [0:26:10]
  • An important takeaway concerning our discussion on the gender pay gap. [0:33:19]
  • Rundown of the housing market and its investment potential. [0:33:58]
  • Find out how an owned home can act like an investment. [0:37:42]
  • Learn more about ‘Portfolio Theory’ concerning property investment. [0:40:50]
  • An interesting aspect regarding peoples’ occupation and property investments. [0:46:18]
  • How people reduce the risk associated with property investments. [0:47:45]

Welcome back to another episode of our limited addition Crypto Series on the Rational Reminder Podcast, a weekly reality check about sensible investing and financial decision-making. Are cryptocurrencies and the associated technologies beneficial? Could they change the world for the better? There is a lot of controversy surrounding the use and application of cryptocurrencies and the associated technologies. Some say the innovation is ultimately useless while others think it is the answer to society’s problems. To help us unpack this complicated and hot-button topic is Bruce Schneier, an internationally-renowned security technologist, author, and educator. The focus of his work is the intersection of security, technology and people. Bruce also has an immense passion for educating people about cryptocurrencies. Examples of his well-known books include Liars and Outliers and Data and Goliath, which provide much-needed insight to readers about DeFi technologies and big monopolies. He also lectures in public policy at the Harvard Kennedy School and is a fellow at the Berkman Klein Center for Internet and Society. In our conversation, we discuss the debate surrounding cryptocurrencies such as privacy concerns of digital cash, what makes Bitcoin different from earlier digital currencies, aspects of public blockchain technology, the misapplications of crypto technology, the different forms and approaches to cryptocurrencies, and whether DeFi technologies can be beneficial to society, and what the biggest concerns are regarding cryptocurrencies. Join us today as we take a detailed look into the value and drawbacks of crypto and DeFi technology with Bruce Schneier!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • What the objective was of early digital cash projects, like DigiCash. [0:03:27]
  • The privacy concerns associated with digital cash. [0:04:45]
  • Whether financial surveillance should be a concern for people. [0:05:45]
  • Differences between Bitcoin and earlier forms of digital cash. [0:08:35]
  • How good technology is at solving economic and political problems. [0:09:30]
  • Details about the pieces that come together to make public blockchains work. [0:10:29]
  • Why Bruce considers proof of work to be an idiotic way to form consensus. [0:13:43]
  • Whether alternatives to proof of work resolve wasteful energy practices. [0:16:01]
  • The new properties that public blockchains offer. [0:17:04]
  • We find out if public blockchains do what their proponents say they do. [0:17:37]
  • The claims that crypto proponents make regarding blockchain are discussed. [0:19:29]
  • We discuss the misapplications of crypto and DeFi technologies. [0:20:23]
  • Outline of the systems of trust that humans use to incentivize good behaviour. [0:23:26]
  • Whether cryptocurrency technologies will become secure and trusted. [0:27:49]
  • Reasons for the perspective code is law’ from crypto technologists. [0:30:02]
  • Whether one CPU, one vote’ is how blockchains are working in practice. [0:31:35]
  • We discuss other ideas and emerging technologies in the crypto space. [0:33:24]
  • If government intervention is needed for crypto technologies and currencies. [0:36:21]
  • How cryptocurrencies can be included in the mainstream financial system. [0:39:06]
  • Bruce shares his opinion on the future of NFTs for artists to be able to capitalize on their creativity. [0:40:08]
  • What the potential impacts of crypto technologies on younger generations are. [0:43:48]
  • How blockchain erodes moral and reputational incentives to act responsibly. [0:45:26]
  • Ways in which cryptocurrencies can help people who are ‘bankless’ and avoid high bank fees. [0:46:13]
  • Break down of a real-world scenario where blockchain is being used in an alternative way. [0:49:00]
  • Bruce tells us whether Bitcoin is suitable as a global currency. [0:50:55]
  • The message that Bruce hopes his students will take away after his class. [0:51:59]
  • If the government is beginning to take regulation of cryptocurrencies seriously. [0:52:43]
  • What aspects, if any, excites Bruce about cryptocurrencies. [0:53:04]
  • What Bruce’s biggest concerns about cryptocurrencies are. [00:53:43]

There’s no doubt about it; money is a taboo topic in our society. But not talking about money only serves to uphold inequalities and injustices. Rebecca Walker is an advocate for transparency and, during this episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast, she shares the importance of exploring the factors that have influenced our relationship with money so that we can begin to understand how we can use money as a tool to effect the kind of changes we want to see in the world. This is the intention behind her latest collection, Women Talk Money. No matter your gender, race, or financial standing, this episode will provide you with a new perspective on how to approach money. Rebecca is a well-known speaker, author, consultant and was named by Time Magazine as one of the most influential leaders of her generation. Tune in today.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • What money represents and why it is so important that we understand it better. [0:02:21]
  • The intention behind Rebecca’s latest collection, Women Talk Money. [0:03:05]
  • A brief overview of some of the stories Rebecca shares in her book about our relationship with money and how it impacts our lives and society as a whole. [0:05:13]
  • How race, class, and gender impact how knowledge about money is transferred. [0:08:50]
  • Problems that arise when we aren’t transparent about our finances. [0:11:22]
  • How the way we approach money ties into many broader societal issues. [0:15:45]
  • Examples of how not talking about money renders people powerless. [0:17:45]
  • Rebecca explains how she has taught her son about money from a young age. [0:20:58]
  • Rebecca’s approach to talking to other people about money. [0:22:30]
  • Issues that may stem from an obsession with money. [0:24:32]
  • How Rebecca defines “enough.” [0:27:09]
  • The role that men can play in empowering women in relation to money. [0:29:24]
  • Advice for women who are struggling to form a healthy relationship with money. [0:33:33]
  • How Rebecca defines success in her own life. [0:36:04]

Welcome back to another limited series of Rational Reminder Podcast, focused on learning about cryptocurrencies. Our journey about cryptocurrencies has led us to speak to various experts on the subject, all of whom see some benefits to cryptocurrencies and the underlying blockchain technology. However, what does a skeptic think about cryptocurrencies and the benefits to the current financial system? In today’s episode, we speak to Stephen Diehl, a software engineer who works with financial technology within the finance sector and is an outspoken cryptocurrency skeptic. His engineering background, coupled with his experience working with financial technology, provides a unique perspective on the future of cryptocurrencies. We move through the episode learning about public blockchain technology, different consensus mechanisms, what potential problems blockchain technology can solve, whether crypto can improve the current financial system, if Bitcoin really is decentralized, what drives crypto prices, reasons why crypto will not work, what makes it similar to gambling, and more. Tune in today to hear a unique opposing view of cryptocurrencies and DeFi technology with expert and skeptic, Stephen Diehl!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • A brief breakdown of public blockchain technology. [0:03:28]
  • The current problems that public blockchain technology is trying to solve. [0:04:16]
  • Proof of work consensus and how it tries to eliminate the need for a trusted third party. [0:05:44]
  • Some of the downsides associated with the proof of work concept. [0:07:41]
  • How other consensus mechanisms have improved the proof of work concept. [0:09:21]
  • What the costs associated with proof of stake relative to proof of work are. [0:11:09]
  • Problems that both consensus methods have regarding recentralization. [0:12:07]
  • What other problems blockchain technologies can be used to solve. [0:12:50]
  • The problems in the financial technological system that public blockchains solve. [0:14:29]
  • Why finality of payments associated with cryptocurrencies is not a good thing. [0:15:42]
  • What limitations can blockchain technology remove regarding international money transfers. [0:17:06]
  • How to prevent double-spending under the current financial system. [0:20:34]
  • What Stephen thinks drives the value of cryptocurrencies. [0:21:15]
  • Whether Bitcoin is decentralized in Stephen’s opinion. [0:23:19]
  • Reasons why concentrated mining power does not cultivate decentralization. [0:24:46]
  • How permissioned blockchains can improve on the pitfalls of public blockchains. [0:25:40]
  • A discussion about the potential benefits of private blockchains. [0:27:15]
  • We learn what a smart contract is. [0:29:49]
  • Outline of other useful applications for smart contracts. [0:31:25]
  • Examples of illicit activities associated with cryptocurrencies. [0:32:08]
  • Code is law: deferring to code for implementing law. [0:33:17]
  • What Stephen thinks is the value of the underlying blockchain technology. [0:34:32]
  • Stephen explains what Web3 is and if it improves the financial system [0:37:05]
  • We find out if there is anything about crypto technologies that excite him. [0:41:06]
  • The most compelling argument for crypto that Stephen has heard. [0:43:08]
  • He explains what he means by suffering stemming from cryptocurrencies. [0:44:40]
  • Stephen shares his experiences as an outspoken crypto skeptic. [0:45:26]
  • How he began working with researchers from the London School of Economics. [0:47:03]
  • Discussion about the narrative of cryptocurrencies and why Stephen is outspoken on the subject. [0:50:33]

 

In today's episode, we share some updates from our Financial Goals Survey, respond to a listener who says we are wrong about dividends, and talk about Scout Mindset by Julia Galef. We then respond to a listener question about whether our comments in Episode 205 on private equity extend to private real estate. In our main topic, we unravel what money is by looking back at its origin story and the two competing theories about what it is. We discuss the ideological underpinnings of money and how these ideologies can make choosing a definition of money highly political. We end the episode talking to Dan Solin about his reading habits. Dan Solin joined us almost four years ago for an episode on evidence-based investing. Tuning in, you’ll hear how Dan finds the books he reads, what his favourite types of books are, and whether he recommends books to people, plus he shares why he believes reading is so essential, and much more. Don’t miss out on another well-rounded and informative episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • An update on the progress of our Financial Goals Survey. [0:03:32]
  • Your monthly update on the reading challenge and how to get involved. [0:04:52]
  • An update from our limited crypto series and some of the feedback we’ve received. [0:08:00]
  • This week’s book review: The Scout Mindset. [0:16:29]
  • Simple set of tools to help you assess biases when receiving new information. [0:19:18]
  • Following up on private investments concerning real estate. [0:24:32]
  • Onto the main topic of the show with Dan Solin: money and what it is. [0:29:09]
  • Where the perception and definition of money originated from. [0:31:00]
  • Unpacking an alternative definition of money by Adam Smith. [0:37:32]
  • The quantity theory of money and its application in the economy. [0:40:14]
  • An interesting political aspect to forming John Locke’s theory of money. [0:46:49]
  • Outlining of the history of opposing views on the theory of money. [0:47:25]
  • A break down of the findings of an anthropological review investigating money. [0:49:47]
  • How money is neither commodity nor quantity but rather a measure of credit. [0:51:32]
  • The state theory of money and how it is different from other theories. [0:53:39]
  • What sets the price level of money based on credit theory. [0:55:06]
  • A discussion around money based on the several theories of what it is. [0:57:22]
  • Why fiat money is not a derogatory term for currencies. [0:59:30]
  • Some of the nuances regarding the definitions of money in a modern context. [1:00:07]
  • Dan shares his reading habits as an author. [1:01:05]
  • Whether Dan reads hard copies, audiobooks, or Kindle. [1:01:32]
  • The difference between reading and streaming in Dan’s opinion. [1:02:08]
  • Insight into some of Dan’s favourite types of book. [1:03:11]
  • How he finds new books to read and what inspires his reading interests. [1:05:40]
  • Ways in which Dan organizes what he reads and learns. [1:08:47]
  • Whether or not he recommends books to other people. [1:09:33]
  • Reasons why Dan believes it is important to read books similar to his latest book. [1:12:21]
  • Dan’s advice for people that want to read more. [1:14:10]

Welcome to another special episode of Rational Reminder Podcast, a show to help us learn about cryptocurrencies and their role in our current and future financial systems. In today's show, we speak to Tobin Hanspal, an Assistant Professor of Finance at the Vienna University of Economics and Business who has written several papers focused on household finances. Tobin's research area offers insights into the behaviours of retail investors in the crypto space and how this may affect household finances. In this episode, we take a deep dive into some of the papers that Tobin has authored and how his findings relate to the behaviours and biases of crypto adopters. We discuss the investment behaviours of early crypto adopters, the role of EFTs in reducing risk, the different types of investor groups, how past experience negatively affects investor confidence, how behaviours change after an initial crypto investment, the disposition effect, how cryptocurrencies are an extension of existing behaviours, and much more! Be sure not to miss out on this informative episode with expert, Tobin Hanspal!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • How Tobin investigated the investment behaviour of early crypto adopters. [0:04:24]
  • Whether indirect crypto investments are a good proxy for crypto investors. [0:08:10]
  • Why it is important to consider the different types of investor groups. [0:10:23]
  • The differences between individual characteristics of crypto adopters and non-adopters. [0:10:55]
  • Comparison of eventual crypto adopters and non-adopters [0:12:37]
  • What kind of sector ETFs do crypto adopters choose to invest in. [0:13:48]
  • Differences between the crypto and non-crypto investors, in terms of typical investor behaviour biases. [0:15:01]
  • How cryptocurrencies are an extension of traditional high-risk investing. [0:16:39]
  • Whether the behaviour of investors changes after their first crypto investment. [0:17:37]
  • The differences in behaviour between early and late adopters. [0:19:15]
  • What insights Tobin has regarding the geographical location of crypto adopters. [0:20:36]
  • What percentage of their portfolios’ do adopters allocate to crypto. [0:21:11]
  • Find out if crypto investors buy lower-risk assets to make up for cryptocurrencies. [0:21:36]
  • What differences exist between crypto and non-crypto investors regarding efficiency. [0:22:51]
  • Description of the typical crypto investor characterized in their study. [0:23:39]
  • Tobin explains the disposition effect and how belief systems play a role. [0:25:56]
  • How risk appetite is related to the disposition effect. [0:28:05]
  • People’s beliefs: are expected returns affected by past experience in expected realized returns. [0:29:20]
  • Whether positive or negative realized past return experiences have the same effect on beliefs. [0:31:19]
  • How peoples’ beliefs affect investing in riskier assets. [0:32:07]
  • Changes in behaviour on a household level from past negative investment experiences. [0:33:23]
  • The role experiences of peers and/or relatives have on investment belief. [0:38:16]
  • Reasons for people reducing risk in their portfolios. [0:38:50]
  • Tobin shares if he thinks cryptocurrencies will have similar effects on peoples’ behaviours. [0:39:42]
  • How applicable the findings are from Tobin’s study to other parts of the world. [0:41:54]
  • What the ideal theoretical response is to losing money on an investment. [0:42:47]
  • Important takeaways that Tobin has for crypto investors. [0:43:23]

Welcome back to another exciting and informative episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast, a show all about finances and how to get the most of your money responsibly. To make the right decisions regarding your investments, besides the knowledge and understanding of financial systems, you also need to understand the psychology behind your decisions. To help us unpack this complicated and interesting subject is Professor Vanessa Bohns, a Social Psychologist and Professor of Organizational Behaviour at Cornell University. Professor Bohns has a Ph.D. in Psychology from Columbia and is the author of You Have More Influence Than You Think: How We Underestimate Our Power of Persuasion, and Why It Matters. The topic of the book is exactly what today’s show is about, as we delve into the intricacies of human behaviour and decision-making. In today’s episode, we learn about the influence that people have on one another, how people perceive one another, the human behaviours that scammers take advantage of, why people worry about saying the wrong thing, what the default behaviour of people is, why people struggle to say no to a request, and so much more! Don’t miss out on this fascinating episode with special guest and expert, Professor Vanessa Bohns!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • How much impact and influence people have on one another. [0:03:09]
  • What people tend to notice about other people. [0:04:50]
  • Why people don’t realize what other people are paying attention to. [0:08:58]
  • How being in the presence of other people affects experiences. [0:10:31]
  • Whether communicating with someone about a shared experience amplifies it. [0:12:41]
  • Reasons why some people are underconfident in their social lives. [0:13:20]
  • Problems that stem from underconfidence. [0:15:52]
  • The consequences of underestimating how much people like us. [0:18:02]
  • Why people worry about saying the wrong thing. [0:20:53]
  • Whether it is default to believe or disbelieve when assessing information. [0:22:55]
  • The impact of people interacting with people anonymously. [0:26:01]
  • How the default to believe people impacts receiving advice from experts. [0:27:22]
  • The authority on a subject can switch between domains of expertise. [0:31:19]
  • Ways in which scammers take advantage of behavioural biases. [0:32:22]
  • Problems caused by people being dishonest or spreading false information. [0:34:47]
  • Approaches to ensure that you are not spreading misinformation unintentionally. [0:36:04]
  • Why asking for what you want is so effective. [0:38:21]
  • Whether asking for what you want becomes easier over time. [0:40:33]
  • The effect that money has when asking for something. [0:42:24]
  • Differences in response to small or large requests. [0:43:48]
  • How responses differ between direct and indirect requests. [0:45:23]
  • What effect asking in person as opposed to over email or text have on responses. [0:47:20]
  • Reasons behind the hesitancy for people to ask for what they want. [0:49:04]
  • Why people find it difficult to reject a request from someone. [0:50:36]
  • Whether saying no in person is the same as saying no over email. [0:52:12]
  • Feeling guilty and whether you should feel bad asking for things. [0:53:52]
  • How people generally respond to unethical requests. [0:56:21]
  • Find out if people with authority realize how much influence they have. [0:59:01]
  • Approaches to help people be more aware of their influence. [1:00:58]
  • A rundown of the impacts of not being aware of other people has. [1:05:12]
  • We end the show with Professor Bohns sharing her definition of success. [1:07:41]

Welcome back to another episode of our series focusing on cryptocurrencies. In this episode, we dive into conceptual complexities surrounding cryptocurrencies and how this might affect the financial system in future. To help us unravel this nuanced subject is Professor Eswar Prasad, a senior professor of trade policy and Professor of Economics at Cornell University, and a senior fellow at Brookings Institution. He is also a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research and was a former head of the IMF China Division. Besides his wealth of experience regarding traditional economies, he is also an authority on cryptocurrencies, which he explains in detail in his book The Future of Money: How the Digital Revolution Is Transforming Currencies and Finance. In today’s conversation, we discuss broad conceptual ideas surrounding money and finance, such as the basic functions of money, the difference between outside and inside money, the limitations on creating wealth, how cryptocurrencies work, how cryptocurrencies may disrupt financial systems, why cryptocurrencies need trust to work, the future of cryptocurrencies, and much more. Tune in today to get insider information on cryptocurrencies with our special guest, Professor Eswar Prasad.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • A brief outline of Professor Eswar Prasad’s professional background. [0:01:14]
  • Professor Prasad explains what the basic functions of money are. [0:01:59]
  • We learn if money is a commodity or a social contract. [0:02:33]
  • The problems associated with fiat currencies. [0:03:00]
  • What the concepts of inside and outside money are. [0:04:12]
  • Factors that constrain the creation of outside money. [0:05:34]
  • Whether mechanically constrained money is good for economies. [0:07:07]
  • Learn whether commercial banks need deposits to make loans. [0:08:46]
  • What the definition of fungibility is. [0:10:24]
  • How and why reserves are usually maintained by a central bank. [0:11:19]
  • What the differences are between physical cash and electronic money. [0:12:25]
  • The anonymity associated with each of the payment methods available. [0:13:28]
  • What the main functions of the financial system are. [0:15:14]
  • Find out what the definition of shadow banking is. [0:17:01]
  • How trust in the financial system is facilitated. [0:18:29]
  • We find out if modern financial systems can be disintermediated by technology. [0:20:33]
  • The potential effects that intermediaries can have on economies. [0:22:59]
  • What Satoshi Nakamoto’s 2008 innovation was. [0:25:51]
  • The resilience of the underlying system for Bitcoin is explained. [0:28:12]
  • Learn about the three elements that make Bitcoin decentralized. [0:30:12]
  • How the decentralization of Bitcoin can be overcome. [0:31:39]
  • Learn about the value of blockchain and emerging validation technology. [0:34:07]
  • The key reasons why cryptocurrencies have value. [0:36:14]
  • Ways in which a decentralized system would be beneficial. [0:38:32]
  • Outline of the downsides to decentralized finance. [0:41:01]
  • Why trust is also essential to the long-term viability of cryptocurrencies. [0:43:03]
  • What role unofficial digital currencies will play regarding monetary policy. [0:44:05]
  • The influence that Satoshi’s innovation had on the development of a central bank digital currency. [0:45:49]

Welcome to another episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast. In today’s jam-packed episode, hear updates regarding our goals survey, the schedule for upcoming guests on the show, the latest news and highlights from the financial world, and some of the feedback we have received about the show. We also highlight interesting articles and papers regarding tech valuations, expected stock returns, the performance of venture capital funds, and a book recommendation that will help you understand the finance game. Tune in to learn about the results of the recent social survey in Canada, the basics of private equity funds, the challenges of calculating the Internal Rate of Returns for investors, some of the misconceptions surrounding private equity, and much more! Don’t miss out on this informative and well-rounded episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast with your two favourite Canadians!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • We start the show with an exciting announcement for our listeners. [0:02:07]
  • An update regarding the Goals Survey Project and what needs to be done. [0:03:30]
  • A rundown of the upcoming guests for the show. [0:04:44]
  • Outline of the reviews and criticisms received about the show. [0:05:55]
  • A breakdown of the book for today’s review, Finite and Infinite Games. [0:10:07]
  • Background about the author of the book, James P. Carse. [0:10:57]
  • The main point of the book: the differences between finite and infinite games. [0:11:16]
  • An interesting quote from the book regarding culture. [0:14:42]
  • Highlights of the recent news and updates in the financial world. [0:17:02]
  • Insights from an interesting article about tech valuations by Cliff Asness. [0:19:47]
  • Another interesting paper by David Blitz about expected stock returns. [0:23:09]
  • A discussion regarding the recent social survey implemented in Canada. [0:26:07]
  • We discuss the basics of private equity as an investment strategy. [0:30:06]
  • Why the math used is problematic for calculating the Internal Rate of Return. [0:32:35]
  • The results of a paper which investigated the performance of venture capital funds. [0:39:01]
  • More insights from follow-up papers about private equity. [0:42:24]
  • Examples of the type of risk exposures that private equity provides. [0:49:36]
  • The impacts associated with the preference for illiquid assets. [0:52:00]
  • Some of the misconceptions surrounding diversity in private equity funds. [0:52:44]
  • What are the best metrics to use to measure returns on private equity. [0:56:00]

Understanding the complexity surrounding cryptocurrencies is essential in making the correct decisions regarding investing in DeFi technology. To help us understand the basics, we talked to Dr. Igor Makarov who is an expert on cryptocurrency and Bitcoin, particularly Bitcoin and the associated mining processes. He is based at the London School of Economics, where he serves as an Associate Professor of Finance. Dr. Makarov is also the author of several papers focusing on DeFi and crypto markets in general and has provided new insights surrounding governance and mining processes. In today’s show, we learn about the basics of cryptocurrencies, mining and the future of DeFi. In particular, we talk about the role of intermediaries, what drives the prices of Bitcoin, how concentrated mining processes are, the role DeFi in increasing governance, the upsides and downsides of cryptocurrencies, and much more. Tune in to make sure you don’t miss out on advice from a respected figure in the industry, Dr. Igor Makarov!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • A brief outline of Dr. Makarov’s professional background and experience. [0:00:39]
  • What role do intermediaries play in the traditional financial system. [0:02:36]
  • Find out if economic rents that intermediaries collect are unwarranted. [0:03:36]
  • Makarov explains the complexities of cryptocurrencies and the elimination of fees. [0:06:06]
  • How rents are different on cryptocurrency exchanges. [0:09:44]
  • Systemic risks associated with the traditional banking system. [0:11:24]
  • Whether Bitcoin and DeFi can improve banking by reducing systemic risk. [0:13:22]
  • Learn if blockchain or DeFi ecosystems can exist without human intervention. [0:15:06]
  • Why it is unlikely decentralized autonomous organizations will improve governance. [0:17:06]
  • Breakdown of the potential problems that concentration of ownership could have on governance. [0:19:53]
  • Opportunities where cryptocurrencies and DeFi can improve the traditional financial system. [0:21:44]
  • Some of the potential benefits of a permissioned distributed ledger system. [0:24:39]
  • Why is it important to understand the Bitcoin ecosystem. [0:26:22]
  • What are the limitations of understanding the Bitcoin ecosystem. [0:27:12]
  • How Bitcoin addresses are associated with with real-world entities. [0:29:36]
  • Ways to differentiate between addresses belonging to individual investors and those belonging to intermediaries. [0:31:42]
  • What happens when you send Bitcoins to an exchange. [0:32:49]
  • Details on how Dr. Makarov calculated the concentration of Bitcoins. [0:33:25]
  • How did Dr. Makarov gain an understanding of what Bitcoin is used for. [0:37:14]
  • The role exchanges play in influencing the total volume of Bitcoin transactions. [0:39:00]
  • Why exchanges are essential to the overall network. [0:41:06]
  • The challenges in enforcing KYC and AML rules for the crypto ecosystem. [0:41:56]
  • How fungibility could effect the use of cryptocurrencies in the marketplace. [0:45:19]
  • Whether most important cryptocurrency exchanges are generally decentralized. [0:46:36]
  • What portion of Bitcoin transactions does Dr. Makarov consider to be economically meaningful. [0:47:06]
  • Why most Bitcoin transactions comprise of irrelevant transactions. [0:48:08]
  • What the meaningful Bitcoin transactions are being used for. [0:50:06]
  • Why the estimates of illegal activities by Dr. Makarov differs from other studies. [0:52:56]
  • A more in-depth explanation of what is driving the price of Bitcoin. [0:55:54]
  • How Dr. Makarov was able to identify individual Bitcoin miners for his paper. [01:01:57]
  • Makarov explains why the original vision of DeFi has not been realized. [01:05:52]
  • Reasons for the concentration of miners in the Bitcoin space. [01:06:42]
  • What are the risks are for the Bitcoin ecosystem when mining concentration is high. [01:08:24]
  • How Dr. Makarov determined the geographic locations of mining operations. [01:10:52]
  • What the function of a mining pool is. [01:13:36]
  • How the concentration in mining power affects the security of smaller proof of work blockchains [01:16:20]
  • How concentrated the ownership of Bitcoin in the hands of individual investors is. [01:22:40]
  • We find out if cryptocurrencies are democratizing financial services. [01:25:03]

John List is the recently appointed Chief Economist at Walmart, and is also a Professor of Economics at the University of Chicago, having worked as the Chief Economist at Uber and Lyft. He has published a huge array of important papers in the field of economics and is also the author of the recent book The Voltage Effect, which deals with the question of how to scale ideas successfully. We are very excited to bring you this episode, which is a particularly illuminating one, in which we draw on John's treasure trove of insight and experience, to answer a long list of questions related to personal finance decision-making. A large portion of our chat focuses on the central ideas of critical thinking and fieldwork, practices that our guest views as indispensable in making the world a better place. Along the way we get John's thoughts on retirement planning, public policy, charitable donations, and much more, so make sure to press play on this fantastic episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • John explains the importance of fieldwork in the study of economics. [0:03:51]
  • Examples of field experiments that overturned a supposed economic truth. [0:05:15]
  • Finding ways to test theories that previously proved difficult. [0:08:30]
  • The question of generalizing findings from an experiment to a wider rule. [0:13:30]
  • Replication in academic studies; John unpacks its central importance. [0:20:46]
  • Why positive results tend to garner a publication bias. [0:23:38]
  • John's perspective on checking in on investment portfolios. [0:24:40]
  • What the data shows us about investment behaviours of men and women. [0:28:38]
  • Accounting for the drive to give to charity. [0:35:20]
  • Advice for how to make the most of your donations. [0:39:42]
  • John unpacks his findings on scaling, its importance, and what he calls 'the voltage effect'. [0:44:41]
  • The impact of technological advancement on our ability to scale certain solutions. [0:48:27]
  • How field experiments can influence the process of scaling big ideas. [0:54:47]
  • Hindrances to healthy scaling; confirmation biases, and herding. [0:56:17]
  • Impacts of loss aversion and marginal thinking when scaling ideas. [1:05:28]
  • Reasons for the difficulty of tackling globally important issues; multidimensionality and politics. [1:15:10]
  • Weighing the utility of incentives when trying to encourage retirement savings. [1:19:16]
  • Thoughts on bringing more reliable science into the policy-making process. [1:21:26]
  • How parents can approach the promotion of critical thinking in their children. [1:25:45]
  • John's approach to the questions he pursues; how he evaluates potential ideas and questions. [1:31:10]
  • A little bit about John's new post as Chief Economist at Walmart and what the job entails. [1:33:53]
  • How John defines success at this point in his life and his focus on inputs. [1:33:53]

Fundamentals of the Blockchain with Daniel Mescheder

 

Episode 1: Show Notes

 

Welcome to the first episode of our limited series focusing on cryptocurrencies and everything you need to know about them. Our first guest is Daniel Mescheder, who joins us to appropriately break down some of the basic concepts and engineering of the blockchain, using his expertise as a software engineer as the lens for this discussion. We felt this chat was the best way to launch the series and prepare listeners for the following episodes on the subject, and you can expect to hear Daniel share very helpful insight and explanations of fundamental terms and concepts such as distributed systems, consensus, hashing, digital signatures, and more. We also have time for our guest to weigh in on the subjects of smart contracts and NFTs, both of which are regular points of intrigue for the uninitiated. Importantly, we do hear from Daniel about the limitations of the technology at present, and which types of technological problems that he believes the blockchain is well-suited to address. So for all this and more, and to start this journey with us into such an important and hot topic, make sure to listen in.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • The reasons for Daniel's interest and involvement with the blockchain and cryptocurrencies. [0:03:33]
  • Daniel compares the hype around AI in the 1980s and the current atmosphere for crypto. [0:04:50]
  • Getting to grips with Daniel's specific perspective on the blockchain and explaining distributed systems. [0:06:34]
  • How the concept of consensus fits into the subject of distributed systems. [0:11:17]
  • Looking at Byzantine consensus problems and how these occur on the blockchain. [0:13:51]
  • Daniel gives an overview of the elements that make the blockchain functional; hashing and digital signatures. [0:19:17]
  • How Satoshi Nakamoto introduced an economic incentive to comply with the protocol. [0:24:09]
  • Differentiating between the public and permissioned blockchains, and databases. [0:27:33]
  • How Bitcoin achieves consensus and some of the downsides of proof of work. [0:33:31]
  • An assessment of the decentralized status of the Bitcoin and Ethereum blockchains. [0:41:16]
  • The amount of control that is held by miners in relation to transactions. [0:45:27]
  • Understanding interactions between the blockchain and other external systems. [0:49:16]
  • Immutability and the blockchain; what the rules allow and the questions that still need to be answered. [0:52:47]
  • Basic engineering downsides to the blockchain. [0:54:40]
  • Vulnerabilities on the blockchain and how these have been exploited by hackers. [0:58:23]
  • NFTs, DAOs, and smart contracts; weighing how neatly these fit into the current blockchain ecosystem. [0:59:27]
  • The abundance of rhetoric surrounding discussion about the future and validity of the blockchain. [1:06:09]
  • Which problems would be well-suited to a solution found within the blockchain? [1:08:10]

 

We have a jam-packed episode for all of our listeners today, with two guests, a lot of news, and many great resource recommendations. We start off by rounding up some recent updates from the world of finance and the Rational Reminder community, and spend some time talking about Ben's recent paper, titled 'Finding and Funding Good Life'. We are then joined by Robb Engen, for his third appearance on the show, to talk about how he helps his clients move on from unhealthy advisory relationships. Robb shares some of the surprising, disturbing, and ridiculous rebuttals that he has come into contact with over the years, and we reflect on the recent Twitter storm that occurred as a result of Robb sharing some of these. After this great chat with Robb, we are very happy to welcome back author of How to Change, Katy Milkman, who was recently a guest on the show, to discuss her reading habits, tips for memory, and how she balances producing and consuming both podcasts and books. To take part in this bounty of great information and inspiring ideas from these two guests, please make sure to join us today.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • Reflecting on and investigating Ben's paper, 'Finding and Funding Good Life'. [0:10:59]
  • How this podcast has increased our interest in learning about and sharing non-financial ideas. [0:15:30]
  • The part that hindsight and regret play in our estimations of happiness. [0:20:08]
  • Looking forward to our podcast miniseries in which we explore cryptocurrencies. [0:22:41]
  • The basics of the blockchain and digital cash in light of new technology. [0:29:02]
  • The context that sparked today's conversation with Robb. [0:35:49]
  • Robb explains his typical client, their portfolio, and why they contact him. [0:38:30]
  • How Robb approaches assessing a portfolio and communicating possible drawbacks. [0:40:43]
  • Ways in which active managers are practicing bad investment habits themselves. [0:44:02]
  • Tracking the progress from active to passive for those that Robb works with. [0:47:09]
  • Advice from Robb for managing the end of a relationship with an active manager. [0:48:15]
  • Robb shares some examples of how advisors have responded to 'break-up notices'. [0:52:07]
  • A round of Talking Cents cards with Rob; addressing social issues in a new business, quitting a job, saving versus spending, and more. [1:02:26]
  • Katy describes her reading habits and her use of audiobooks. [1:08:15]
  • Tips and tricks from Katy for information retention and idea compilation. [1:09:20]
  • Thoughts on the connected nature of the behavioural science community and the benefits that Katy sees in this. [1:13:39]
  • Some of the classic behavioural science books that Katy recommends. [1:15:07]
  • How Katy approaches podcasting, writing, and consuming the different mediums. [1:17:05]
  • Advice from Katy for anyone wanting to increase the amount that they read. [1:21:00]

To carry on the trend of amazing guests on the show, today we welcome Antti Ilmanen. Antti is the co-head of the Portfolio Solutions Group at AQR, and the author of a couple of really impactful books that we highly recommend. His most recent is Investing Amid Low Expected Returns, and in today's chat, we get to hear all about the ideas contained in its pages, and the most important moments in his career that have shaped his philosophy. Antti received his PhD in Finance from the University of Chicago and has had a long career of working with high profile names that you might recognize from past episodes of this podcast. Our guest talks about the need for cultivating your patience in relation to your investment portfolio and shares many other great pieces of practical advice that you can implement today. We delve into some bad investment habits that Antti noted in his book and also touch on the usefulness of bonds, illiquid assets, trend following, and much more. Be sure to tune in today to hear all that this great mind has to offer.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • The power and limitations of using historical data for calculating expected returns. [0:04:17]
  • Balancing historical data with market-implied expected returns. [0:07:47]
  • Antti comments on shifting into higher expected return equity markets. [0:11:37]
  • The role of bonds in revenue generation and why to not give up on them completely. [0:13:00]
  • Locating the roots of the positive premium that Antti associates with bonds. [0:16:35]
  • The effect of illiquid assets on expected returns. [0:19:44]
  • Why recent historical returns in real estate are not indicative of future expected returns. [0:23:40]
  • The response from institutional investors to lower expected returns. [0:26:09]
  • Situating value's current dip in a broader historical picture. [0:29:57]
  • Some comments on the recent performance of rates, growth, and value. [0:33:39]
  • Today's expected value returns in comparison with other points in history. [0:37:19]
  • Antti unpacks the idea of trend following and its performance during the most recent crash. [0:39:53]
  • Defining the defensive style premium and its relation to quality. [0:41:26]
  • Antti differentiates carry and value strategies from each other. [0:45:55]
  • An explanation of the importance of being 'long-short' to capturing the premium. [0:51:24]
  • Locating the difference between alternative risk premia and alpha. [0:55:31]
  • Practical tips for investors to wait out periods of poor performance. [0:57:45]
  • The need for investors to be more fee-conscious in today's, low-return world. [1:01:35]
  • Antti shares about what he calls the investor's 'premier bad habit'. [1:02:33]
  • The impact of Ken French on Antti's career and philosophy. [1:05:29]
  • How Antti defines success at this point in his life and the priority he gives to balance. [1:07:33]

Today, on the Rational Reminder Podcast, we are tackling a few interesting topics that tie into recent and forthcoming conversations with our amazing guests. In this 'us only' episode, we are focusing on thematic ETFs and the truth about dividend investing. After a quick look at The Quick Fix by Jesse Singal, some reflections on the past six months at ARK Invest, and the lessons we can still learn from the dot-com crash, we get into the meat of today's episode by way of Ben's recent experiences on a discussion panel about the utility of thematic investing. From there, we transition into the 'relevance of dividend irrelevance' and share some of the most illuminating and pertinent findings. In the end, our argument is simply that dividends are not the way to go and are an inefficient policy on many fronts. This has not deterred many investors, however, and we get to grips with the kinds of behaviours associated with dividends before espousing what this can mean for you and your objectives. To catch all of this and links to some of the best research available, be sure to listen in with us today.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • Today's book review of The Quick Fix by Jesse Singal and its critique of popular psychology. [0:12:30]
  • Inflows at ARK Invest; the startling commitment that we are currently seeing. [0:21:48]
  • Reflections and information that we dug up on the dot-com crash in the '90s. [0:22:30]
  • Notes on thematic ETFs garnered from the recent panel Ben was on. [0:25:09]
  • Disentangling the relevance of dividend irrelevance. [0:35:45]
  • The performance of a dividend portfolio and a better idea of expected returns. [0:40:28]
  • Empirical findings about dividend investors and their actions in relation to yields, diversification, and more. [0:42:01]
  • The tax inefficiency of dividends and what this means for capital gains. [0:49:01]
  • Underlining the importance of dividend investor's consumption and its sensitivity to dividends. [0:51:31]
  • How the problem with dividends is compounded outside of the US. [0:57:11]

 

We are so happy to bring you all our 200th episode, and who better to have on the podcast on this auspicious occasion than the legendary, Professor Gene Fama? This is one of the most jam-packed episodes we have ever recorded, with Gene providing concise and thought-provoking answers to our many, many questions. After delving into the foundations of Gene's work and philosophy, covering market efficiency, and its competing theories, Gene entertains our queries about a wide range of ideas and models, and generously shares the decades worth of wisdom that he is so widely known for. We also find time to talk about retirement plans, inflation, cryptocurrencies, and the influence of machine learning. Towards the end of our conversation, our guest touches on some more personal ideas about productivity, his career, his partnership with Ken French, and what success means to him at this point. For a landmark episode, with a true hero of the evidence-based approach to investing, make sure not to miss this.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • The basics of market efficiency and its main implications for investors. [0:04:49]
  • Limitations of the efficient markets model for explaining specific cases. [0:08:02]
  • Gene's perspective on the inelastic markets hypothesis and his interest in it for the future. [0:09:36]
  • The anomalies that brought down the capital asset pricing model. [0:10:26]
  • Unpacking the three-factor and five-factor asset pricing models that Fama and French created. [0:11:43]
  • Thoughts on the Q-factor model, factor premiums, and data dredging. [0:15:43]
  • Gene's reflections on building data sets dating back to the 1920s. [0:17:13]
  • The best way to estimate expected returns and expected factor premiums according to Gene. [0:19:52]
  • Structuring portfolios and how different investors should approach this. [0:24:10]
  • Considering international diversification for investors in Canada. [0:29:05]
  • Further thoughts on asset pricing models. [0:32:47]
  • The assets that are hedged against expected and unexpected inflation. [0:33:31]
  • Gene illuminates the role of the Fed in relation to inflation. [0:36:43]
  • Advice for typical retirees from Gene. [0:38:22]
  • The challenges that Gene has experienced translating theory into practice. [0:40:16]
  • Lesson from Gene's work with Dimension Fund Advisors. [0:43:47]
  • Gene's reflections on his impact and having his theories implemented in practice. [0:45:32]
  • Weighing the value and impact of behavioral finance. [0:47:53]
  • Technology and active managers; is it any different for those aiming to achieve alpha in the current context? [0:50:46]
  • Gene weighs in on cryptocurrencies and how his perspective might have shifted. [0:53:08]
  • A look at the people who have had the biggest influence on Gene's career. [1:03:05]
  • Thoughts on productivity and making the most of periods of clear thinking. [1:03:39]
  • Our guest's personal definition of a successful life. [1:06:17]
As we near the 200th episode of our little podcast, we wanted to have a chat with our friend Aydin Mirzaee about one of our favourite topics: books. Before welcoming Aydin into the conversation we round up some important news, go deeper than ever into the fascinating subject of bonds, and share some thoughts on Setting the Table. As the host of the Supermanagers Podcast and the CEO of Fellow, Aydin has an unusual and stimulating perspective on many of our usual interests, and we get to hear from him about the development of his own reading habit, what he most enjoys reading, what would make him recommend a book to someone else, and few pieces of advice for strengthening your reading practices. Aydin also talks about why advice can be dangerous, increasing your ability to retain information, and he is generous enough to do a round of Talking Sense cards with us to finish off the episode. To hear it all, make sure to join us.  

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • Today's book review, looking at Setting the Table by Danny Meyers. [0:08:47]
  • Christopher Bloomstran's thought-provoking critique of Ark Invest. [0:18:06]
  • A follow-up on our ongoing discussion about bonds and look at their recovery time. [0:20:04]
  • Comparing real returns across the different decades. [0:27:30]
  • Research into a more complete view of the historical returns of stocks versus bonds. [0:39:31]
  • How correlations come into the conversation about stocks and bonds. [0:42:54]
  • Aydin describes his reading habits; audiobooks on a commute, hacks, and more.
  • The different purposes of books and how Aydin uses business content to generate ideas. [0:49:40]
  • Books as leverage and some thoughts from Aydin on his favourite genres. [0:52:27]
  • Where Aydin sources his books and what it takes for him to decide to recommend books to others. [0:56:12]
  • The role that podcasts play in Aydin's reading habits. [0:58:30]
  • Aydin's advice for how to read more and his approach to encouraging his children. [0:59:12]
  • Considering different ways to increase information retention. [1:02:11]
  • A round of Talking Cents cards with Aydin! [1:03:34]

You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to work at Dimensional Fund Advisors, but Gerard O’Reilly sees it as an asset, particularly when it comes to problem-solving. Now the Co-CEO and Chief Investment Officer of one of the fastest-growing US investment businesses, Gerard received a Ph.D. in aeronautics before entering fund management, attracted to Dimensional because of the opportunity it afforded him to learn from the world-leading economists at the company; including Eugene Fama, Myron Scholes, Merton Miller, Robert Merton, and Ken French. We recently sat down with Gerard to discuss the firm’s research-based culture and rules-based approach to investing. In this episode, we get into the nitty-gritty regarding Dimensional’s distinctive portfolio management decisions and the data sources they draw from and Gerard answers some technical questions regarding risk assessment, factor tilted portfolios, operating profitability, goodwill, and more. We also touch on the value of combining multiple metrics, why small-cap stocks deserve a place in your portfolio, and some of the biggest changes that Gerard has witnessed in Dimensional portfolios over the past decade, as well as how he applies his scientific learnings to make unique portfolio adjustments and some of the various benefits of Dimensional’s integrated approach. Make sure not to miss this informative, insightful, and in-depth conversation with Dimensional CIO and Co-CEO, Gerard O’Reilly!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

  • Market-cap-weighted passive strategies versus Dimensional’s rules-based higher expected return strategy. [0:03:45]
  • Assessing risk based on the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM). [0:07:07]
  • Diversification in a factor tilted portfolio versus a cap-weighted market portfolio. [0:10:57]
  • What criteria the variables that Dimensional uses need to meet before they’re considered dimensions of expected returns. [0:13:00]
  • Sources Dimensional draws from regarding portfolio decisions and implementation. [0:16:09]
  • How Gerard decides between underweighting or excluding securities in portfolios. [0:19:59]
  • Why Dimensional uses operating profitability rather than cash-based profitability. [0:22:38]
  • Gerard’s view on intangible assets, goodwill, and Dimensional’s investment strategy. [0:29:31]
  • The value of including internally developed intangibles in value and profitability metrics. [0:37:49]
  • Gerard reflects on the opinion that Fama and French’s findings are no longer valid. [0:42:58]
  • Whether or not it’s better to combine multiple metrics to measure relative price. [0:46:41]
  • How Dimensional targets value and profitability together (for large and small caps). [0:50:39]
  • How Gerard thinks about capacity for investment strategies in small and micro-cap stocks as Dimensional continues to grow. [0:54:03]
  • Understanding how entering into the ETF market has impacted his thinking. [0:57:24]
  • Expected premiums for owning smaller stocks over larger ones. [0:58:50]
  • The importance of security lending revenue for expected returns on Dimensional funds; improving the investor experience. [1:00:12]
  • How Dimensional deals with sector weights and the role that diversification plays. [1:04:12]
  • Why they decided to implement credit, despite research to suggest that it doesn’t add an independent source of expected returns. [1:06:08]
  • Some of the biggest changes in Dimensional portfolios over the past 10 years. [1:10:23]
  • How Gerard applies his scientific learnings to make unique portfolio adjustments. [1:12:52]
  • Comparing Dimensional’s core and vector strategies with a combined cap-weighted portfolio; from fees to the benefits of hindsight and more. [1:15:15]
  • Papers that seemed compelling but were deemed ineffective by their research team. [1:19:11]
  • Insight into Dimensional’s decision to make their internal research public. [1:21:42]
  • Why their rules-based approach is the hardest part of Dimensional to replicate. [1:25:55]
  • What to be aware of when comparing backtests: how data can be manipulated. [1:30:06]
  • Valuable lessons and perspectives Gerard has learned from their competitors. [1:32:22]
  • Commonalities between aeronautics and asset management, like problem-solving. [1:35:20]
  • Why Gerard believes that having his own financial advisor is invaluable. [1:36:55]
  • Gerard explains why we might expect factor premiums to persist in equilibrium. [1:38:28]

Many people have been contemplating the death of bonds, which is why for the main topic of today’s episode we’re going to be talking about their immortality. After a vicarious trip to The Masters, an overview of The Art of Insubordination, and an explanation of why we’re concerned about the changes that WealthSimple has made to their business model, we get into the world of bonds. Bond returns have not been good this year, and bond index funds are down all round, but that doesn’t mean that bonds are necessarily the riskier choice of investment in the long term, or that you should be feeling disheartened about them. Tune into our conversation today to hear why!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • The incredible experience of attending The Masters, and how you can win a ticket. [0:02:21]
  • Three business-focused TV series that we highly recommend. [0:02:27]
  • Upcoming guests, and some very positive listener reviews. [0:03:34]
  • An overview of The Art of Insubordination. [0:09:16]
  • Why change is challenging for most people, and the value of creating environments that encourage dissent. [0:11:12]
  • How dissenters can make their actions more impactful, and what leaders can do to encourage dissent. [0:13:16]
  • Key takeaways from The Art of Insubordination. [0:16:39]
  • Why we are disappointed with the changes that Wealthsimple has made to their business. [0:18:47]
  • Nuances that Wealthsimple has left out of their venture capital analysis. [0:23:51]
  • Today’s main topic: the immortality of bonds. [0:33:38]
  • Statistics which highlight the fact that bond returns have not been good this year. [0:33:51]
  • Why volatility is not the only risk that matters. [0:35:06]
  • How Ken French defines risk. [0:37:51]
  • Some of the pros and cons of bonds and stocks. [0:38:56]
  • Calculations which show that stocks are not necessarily less volatile than bonds in the long run. [0:40:48]
  • The five components of long-run predictive variance. [0:43:23]
  • An explanation of a model we created for the dispersion of outcomes. [0:45:10]
  • Why now is the time to get excited about bonds. [0:49:27]
  • Today’s first misconception: high growth sectors/regions/companies are good investments. [0:53:52]
  • Today’s second misconception: you can lose all of your money in stocks. [0:55:57]

Welcome back to the show all about sensible investing in Canada! Today we have yet another masterclass with a wonderful guest, Sebastien Betermier. Sebastian is an Associate Professor of Finance at Desautels Faculty of Management at McGill University, where he teaches investment management, applied investments, and pension funds retirement systems. We have a deep, thoughtful, and precise conversation with him about his recent research and papers, much of which stands in contrast to our usual fare on the show. In our chat, we dive into the nuts and bolts of asset allocation, hedging risk, and his research into what demographics can teach us about investment behaviours and returns. We also hear from our guest about interesting topics of expected persistence and tilting towards value stocks, before shifting the conversation towards homeownership and property investment. Sebastien provides some sound advice around when it might be a good idea to purchase property over other asset classes, and we evaluate this position from a number of different investing perspectives. Lastly, we spend some time looking at pension plans, and what we can learn from those available in Canada right now.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • Sebastien explains the theoretical relationship between labor income and financial asset allocation. [0:04:30]
  • Findings on hedging labour income risks and the paper that Sebastien published on the subject. [0:06:47]
  • The relationships between risk and age, gender, wealth, and heterogeneity across households. [0:10:05]
  • Unpacking Sebastien's investigation into value and growth investors. [0:12:07]
  • The effect that the characteristics of labor income have on the rate of progression on the value ladder. [0:18:43]
  • What we can learn about expected persistence in the value premium. [0:22:39]
  • Weighing the possibility of predictive demographics for future value premiums. [0:24:29]
  • Advice for young investors looking to tilt towards value stocks. [0:27:50]
  • Explaining differing returns according to the characteristics of people. [0:29:41]
  • Sebastien explains the factors of markets, wealth, and age, in the pricing model. [0:31:24]
  • Understanding how investors tilt to age and wealth factors, and what these portfolios look like. [0:38:19]
  • The impact of age and wealth factors on wealth inequality, and how younger investors can combat this. [0:42:19]
  • Possible rationales for homeownership and the storage of wealth in housing. [0:44:26]
  • The household characteristics that are predictive of larger allocations to housing. [0:48:49]
  • Economic importance of risk-free benefits of homeownership. [0:52:15]
  • The decade-long rule of thumb for purchasing property; Sebastien weighs in. [0:55:31]
  • Why asset-only performance is not the only correct way to measure the success of the Canadian pension fund model. [0:58:50]
  • Differentiating asset-only performance and liability-hedging performance measurement. [1:02:29]
  • A list and explanation of the assets that Canadian pension funds use for hedging real liabilities. [1:04:03]
  • Lessons from the Canadian Pension Plan for individual investors and firms. [1:12:54]
  • Sebastien's personal definition of success: making the most of opportunities and a balanced life. [1:16:07]

The world of personal finance is full of axioms, and new investors can get caught up in investing myths and ‘rules of thumb’ that are limiting at best and lead to underperformance and unnecessary losses at worst. In this week’s episode, we outline some of the common misconceptions that new investors have, the evidence (or lack thereof) surrounding them, and how to think more like a seasoned investor. Is value investing really a safer strategy with lower expected returns? Do you need to employ a Buffett-Lynch stock picking approach when value investing? Are all index funds good investments? Tune in to find out the answers to these questions and gain some insight into the relationship between risk and return, dividend investing versus total risk investing, and whether or not exclusively investing in US stocks is a good idea, plus so much more!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • Upcoming guests, including Professor Eugene Fama in Episode 200. [0:01:27]
  • An update on our 22 in 22 Reading Challenge, with over 1,000 books read. [0:05:30]
  • A review of The Great Depression: A Diary by Benjamin Roth and lessons learned. [0:07:18]
  • A quick overview of The Bond King, the story of Bill Gross by Mary Childs. [0:17:10]
  • This week’s news stories: 24/7 investing from Robinhood, stock splits, Wealthsimple portfolio changes, and more. [0:20:02]
  • Our main topic: some of the common misconceptions that new investors have. [0:28:50]
  • Whether or not value investing is a safer strategy with lower expected returns. [0:30:42]
  • Some examples of where the myth that value stocks are safer comes from. [0:33:25]
  • The fallacy that value investing requires discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. [0:40:52]
  • Why Warren Buffett’s outcome could be a challenge to systematic value investing. [0:43:41]
  • Debunking the misconception at all index funds are good investments. [0:46:48]
  • Conversely, Ben shares why not all actively managed funds are bad investments. [0:47:34]
  • Why all exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking an asset class are not the same. [0:48:12]
  • The myth that risk and return are always related and the cases when this isn’t true. [0:51:02]
  • Ben shares his reflections on the misconception that dividend investing is less risky than total return investing. [0:53:14]
  • Analysis that demonstrates whether or not dividends are actually safer. [0:56:09]
  • Our last misconception for today: you should only invest in US stocks because they perform best. [0:59:40]

When it comes to the uncertain future of financial markets and technological innovation, a deep understanding of history and the roots of the systems at play in our contemporary climate is often overlooked. This is the argument made by Bill Janeway, our guest on the show today and the author of Doing Capitalism in the Innovation Economy. We have a fascinating conversation with Bill who has vast experience in both the academic and venture capital spheres, having spent years working in both sectors. Bill does an amazing job of sharing his expertise, talking about the role of the state in innovation, how venture capital actually operates, and what the innovation economy means for those who are not on the vanguard of technological progress. We discuss how investors can think about allocating their assets in relation to innovative companies, Bill's reflections and advice regarding financial bubbles, and how Bill applies his understanding to current questions about cryptocurrencies and decentralization. Bill's lifelong passion and commitment to learning about the history of economics and the financial markets makes him a deeply valuable resource and having him on the show was so illuminating, we hope you enjoy the conversation as much as we did. 

 

Key Points From This Episode:

  • Bill explains his concept of the 'three-player game' and how it brings together two important histories. [0:03:13]
  • The role of venture capital in technological innovation in the last 50 years. [0:05:16]
  • Findings on the returns experienced by entrepreneurs in light of VC structures. [0:10:22]
  • Thinking about venture capital as a private investor; best approaches for asset allocation. [0:15:05]
  • Investing in innovation and assessing secondary market public equity benefits. [0:20:02]
  • Bill explores the relationship between innovation and financial bubbles. [0:31:43]
  • Waste and innovation; what we should expect as we progress. [0:35:43]
  • The people left behind by innovation; who has taken the role of trade unions? [0:41:09]
  • Bill weighs in on the question of cryptocurrencies and their place in the conversation about innovation. [0:45:38]
  • Investment in crypto from big firms; separating the 'adults' from the crooks. [0:51:36]
  • Why a deep understanding of history is paramount to sustainable innovation. [0:53:10]
  • Bill's personal definition of success; staying motivated for work! [0:55:15]

Today on Rational Reminder we take a deep dive into the evolution of modern portfolio theory. We kick the show off with some updates and reviews on some of the brilliant shows and books we are watching right now. A key item from this selection is Stolen Focus: Why You Can’t Pay Attention and the points it makes about the value of flow state for learning and creativity. After this week’s news stories, we get into the main topic, and Ben starts with a breakdown of portfolio theory as it was laid out by Harry Markowitz in 1952. From there we talk about research that shaped the current understanding of portfolio theory, exploring the distinction between the mean-variance efficient portfolio and the multi-factor efficient portfolio, and how they theoretically combine to make the market portfolio. One of the biggest takeaways here is that your financial asset portfolios can look the same in terms of asset allocation but the person with more macroeconomic risk in the remainder of their financial situation is taking on more risk. Additionally, even if somebody is the perfect candidate to be the mean-variance investor and they could theoretically tilt toward value, it doesn’t necessarily mean they have to. We wrap up our conversation by inviting our good friend Larry Swedroe onto the show to speak about his love of reading and share his methods for incorporating what he learns from books into his work and thinking.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • Updates: Shows, books, upcoming guests, reviews, and our reading challenge. [0:00:22]
  • A review on Stolen Focus: Why You Can’t Pay Attention. [0:11:00]
  • News stories for the week: Wealthfront offers thematic ETFs and more. [0:18:47]
  • Moving onto the main topic for today: How modern portfolio theory has changed since 1952. [0:23:00]
  • Lessons to be taken away from Markowitz’s 1952 portfolio theory. [0:25:09]
  • How the math changes when you have a risk-free asset in your portfolio problem. [0:26:59]
  • The capital asset pricing model: the other foundational portfolio theory principle that comes from the mean-variance model. [0:29:08]
  • Portfolio advice that stems from mean-variance optimization. [0:32:46]
  • Building a tangency by expressing information beliefs. [0:36:06]
  • Findings from Michael Jensen’s 1967 application of the CAPM. [0:37:04]
  • Why diversification is important according to Markowitz’s portfolio theory. [0:38:02]
  • Why the CAPM does not accurately reflect the relationship between risk and expected return. [0:39:49]
  • The origins of multi-factor thinking and examples of multi-factor models. [0:41:10]
  • How the allocation of the multi-factor efficient portfolio creates a third dimension. [0:49:29]
  • How the theory predicts how people behave in aggregate. [0:52:44]
  • Takeaways from today’s discussion to keep in mind when building your portfolio. [1:00:00]
  • Larry Swedroe joins us to talk about the importance of reading. [1:03:32]
  • The many subjects that Larry reads about. [1:04:12]
  • How Larry’s reading habit works. [1:05:12]
  • How to capture ideas you read for later use. [1:05:57]
  • Larry’s storage system for all the books that he reads. [1:08:38]
  • The effectiveness of making a public commitment to read more. [1:12:13]

 

We always appreciate research-based arguments here at the Rational Reminder and when those arguments might rattle some assumptions we get particularly excited. Today we have an eye-opening conversation with finance professor Alex Edmans, in which he discusses his idea of growing the pie and how social change and value relate to investor decisions. Alex's work is deeply rooted in skepticism and a critical method of assessing evidence, an approach that has resulted in surprising and sometimes paradoxical findings. We get into a fascinating conversation dealing with employee satisfaction and ESG, with Alex challenging some commonly held beliefs around socially responsible investing, with the data to back it up. A strong theme that emerged during our chat is the need for these conversations to be grounded in research, instead of empty rhetoric, and Alex's data-rich perspective is a great inspiration. Towards the end of the episode, Alex talks about the practical, individual application of his ideas, and how an empowered employee can add value on any level. So, to hear all this and a whole lot more unmissable insight, join us on the show.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • Unpacking what Alex means by 'growing the pie' and differentiating this from other similar-sounding goals. [0:02:38]
  • How to go about measuring the growth of the pie, and the pieces that cannot be measured. [0:05:14]
  • Alex addresses Milton Friedman's famous quote about responsibility and profits. [0:06:48]
  • The role of big asset managers in directing investment towards more socially responsible causes. [0:08:56]
  • Thoughts on the value of divestment as a means to effect social change. [0:11:34]
  • How much impact are typical ESG funds having currently? [0:15:05]
  • The subjective discussion around sustainability and Alex's definition of what makes a company sustainable. [0:17:06]
  • The inconvenient truth about sustainable funds' performance against the market. [0:20:56]
  • Alex's research into the relationship between stock returns and employee satisfaction. [0:22:23]
  • How to take a quantitative approach to employee satisfaction as an investor. [0:29:16]
  • The practical application of information about happy workplaces for investors. [0:32:51]
  • Alex's input on the problems associated with executive pay. [0:35:18]
  • Counter-arguments to some of Alex's unpopular opinions and positions. [0:39:52]
  • Tackling the tricky subject of board diversity at organizations. [0:41:27]
  • Finding trustworthy evidence in the contemporary climate and combatting the post-truth era. [0:46:22]
  • Using Alex's idea of growing the pie in everyday life; making the world better on an individual level. [0:48:46]
  • The left-field study that Alex conducted linking Spotify playlists to stock performance. [0:52:16]
  • Alex's perspective on his role as a finance professor and his purpose with regard to knowledge. [0:56:38]
  • How Alex looks at success in his life and his goal of positively impacting people. [1:00:12]

 

 

There seem to be many differing opinions out there about investing in emerging markets, and unfortunately, many of these are inaccurate. This is mostly due to the fact that emerging markets and your involvement in them, perform in ways that are somewhat counterintuitive. In today's episode, we tackle this tricky subject from a number of angles and try to give all of our listeners a better understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of using emerging markets within your portfolio, without falling prey to some common traps. To kick off the episode we talk about some financial news and the interesting recent book Making Numbers Count, before diving into the main course of the show. Listeners can expect to come away with some new insight into the history of emerging markets theory, realistic emerging markets returns, the appropriate amount of caution to exercise when investing in them, and more. Towards the tail end of the show, we are joined by our friend Morgan Housel, author of the prominent new book, The Psychology of Money, and we briefly discuss reading habits and how implementing a few small practices for learning can have an extraordinary impact on ones' life. Don't miss out on this great show.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • Rounding up some interesting recent content; TV shows, articles, and more. [0:01:16]
  • This week's book review of about the powerful, Making Numbers Count. [0:07:23]
  • Standout data points; Twitter's valuation, Deere Corp, and more. [0:13:14]
  • A few pieces of the most interesting financial news from the last week. [0:16:18]
  • The roots of the idea of emerging markets and its appearance in the 1980s. [0:20:05]
  • Unpacking the findings on emerging markets and the best examples of the thesis. [0:21:20]
  • What to expect with regards to returns from emerging markets. [0:26:37]
  • Reasons for the benefits of diversifying a portfolio using emerging markets. [0:29:26]
  • The importance of market integration segmentation and how this relates to emerging markets. [0:33:46]
  • Portfolio skewness and how assets contribute to this. [0:35:18]
  • Reasons for surprising yields with emerging markets for Canadian investors. [0:41:26]
  • The cautious place that emerging markets deserve in a balanced portfolio. [0:47:20]
  • The dangers of mixing and matching products relating to emerging markets. [0:49:45]
  • Morgan's opinion on how reading can take us beyond our mundane bubble. [0:51:38]
  • The approach that Morgan uses to gain and learn the most from what he reads. [0:52:47]
  • Decisions on what to start reading and exploring a variety of your interests. [0:54:03]
  • Weighing the value of conversations and discussions about the books we have read. [0:57:32]
  • Morgan's process for capturing and retaining useful information from books. [0:58:35]
  • Parting advice from Morgan about finding the time for a healthy reading habit. [1:00:11]

 

It is commonly believed that rational thought is threatened by emotion, but contemporary understandings of the brain paint a more complicated picture. Today’s guest is Leonard Mlodinow and he joins us to talk about why. As a mathematician and theoretical physicist, Leonard might seem like an odd fit for this topic at first glance. However, when Leonard’s desire to discover the secrets of the universe spilled over into a curiosity about the brain, he started publishing books on the subject, his most recent being Emotional: How Feelings Shape Our Thinking. In today’s show, Leonard argues that the brain is essentially an information processing organ and that emotions play an integral role in feeding it data. As such, there is no way to separate emotions from thinking, and in fact, they often aid the decision-making process, as well as play a vital role in motivating us. However, our emotions evolved in a different world to the one we live in today, meaning that there are situations where a certain emotion might be influencing a decision in a way we don’t want, and this is where the cultivation of emotional intelligence becomes a beneficial practice. So for all of this, as well as perspectives on its ramifications for sensible investing, be sure to tune in today!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • Introducing Leonard Mlodinow and his book, Emotional: How Feelings Shape Our Thinking. [0:00:19]
  • The role of emotions in rational decision-making. [0:01:04]
  • How the brain processes data and the role of emotions in this process. [0:04:09]
  • Whether emotions are detrimental to decision making. [0:06:50]
  • The situations our emotions evolved in and how our world has changed. [0:09:05]
  • Whether it is wise or possible to separate emotions from rational thinking. [0:11:50]
  • New findings from affective neuroscience about emotion. [0:13:36]
  • Why simplistic categorizations of emotions and beliefs that they are associated with certain organs are wrong. [0:14:51]
  • What ‘core affect’ is, its relationship to emotion, and how it affects decision making. [0:18:36]
  • How to gauge when to make certain kinds of decisions. [0:22:12]
  • What Leonard’s findings on emotion mean for evaluating risk tolerance in investment. [0:24:00]
  • What role emotions play in theoretical physics and mathematics. [0:26:28]
  • Wanting, liking, and determination: Where the feeling of motivation comes from. [0:30:45]
  • How to develop emotional intelligence by cultivating awareness of how emotions affect decision-making. [0:34:21]
  • Whether some emotions are more influential than others. [0:37:57]
  • What causes people to have different emotional profiles. [0:39:41]
  • How other people’s emotions affect us. [0:42:14]
  • Considerations about the impact of a financial advisor’s emotional profile on their clients.[0:44:24]
  • When and how to control emotions versus embrace them. [0:45:43]
  • Why Leonard wrote Emotional when he is a theoretical physicist and mathematician. [0:50:24]
  • How Leonard defines success in his life. [0:52:14]
In this special episode, we review the relationship between war and financial markets. War is a tragedy. We are not minimizing the humanitarian tragedy of what is happening in Ukraine by focusing on the potential impact on financial markets. But we are offering a Rational Reminder for investors in a stressful time. Wars and financial markets have coexisted, and often been intertwined, for hundreds of years. Countries that have lost major wars have had their financial markets decimated, while global markets have been relatively resilient, even to major conflicts. In addition to the historical perspective, we offer some timeless lessons for investors to remember in times of stress.
 

Today’s guest is Neil Pasricha and he joins us to discuss how to read more. Before our time with Neil, Ben and Cameron lead the discussion, working through a range of topics including how to grasp large numbers, the value of ‘humbitious’ leadership, and how to get a better understanding of regret. When Neil jumps into the conversation, he starts by making an argument for reading, telling us how it is the best form of compressed knowledge we have, and that readers effectively live a new life each time they read a book. We hear about how Neil got back into reading later in his life and the role it has played in shaping so many of his most significant projects over the last few years. He answers some common objections that people have to reading, busting the myth that there is no time for reading or that only certain kinds of books are worth it. In light of our current reading challenge, we hear Neil’s views on whether making a public commitment is an effective approach to reading more. Wrapping up, Neil makes a great point about the importance of finding the right books for your personality and gives some helpful tips for how to do so. 

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • Updates: things to watch, our reading challenge, top books, and more. [0:00:19]
  • How Cameron stumbled upon today’s guest, Neil Pasricha. [0:02:34]
  • Finding ways to grasp big numbers in Making Numbers Count. [0:04:27]
  • Discussing the value of humble but ambitious leaders in [0:10:01]
  • This week’s news: Wealth Front is contesting the value premium. [0:15:42]
  • The importance of understanding regret for making financial decisions. [0:25:00]
  • The main types of regret and things that people feel this emotion about. [0:31:58]
  • How to prevent future regret and manage current regret. [0:38:10]
  • Cameron’s quasi-obsession with enabling teams as they scale. [0:45:00]
  • The tool Cameron and Ben are going to build to survey financial goals. [0:47:45]
  • Neil Pasricha joins us to talk about how to read more. [0:50:05]
  • Access to compressed knowledge and why reading is so important. [0:50:23]
  • Whether Neil’s advice for how to read more has changed as the world has. [0:51:53]
  • Why Neil started reading more and how that morphed into his podcast. [0:52:14]
  • Objections to people’s arguments for why they don’t read more. [0:54:20]
  • Whether it is important to have a physical space dedicated to reading. [0:56:57]
  • Perspectives on making a public commitment to reading more. [0:58:24]
  • How Neil finds new books to read. [0:59:20]
  • Whether Neil finishes every book he starts. [1:01:09]
  • Why the device that we use to read matters. [1:02:44]
  • Which kinds of books Neil keeps on his bookshelf. [1:04:40]

Goal-setting has been a divisive subject of discussion for us here on the Rational Reminder Podcast, and today we dive a bit deeper into the topic with the help of the amazing Ayelet Fishbach, author of the recent book Get It Done. Ayelet is an expert in motivation and a Professor of Behavioral Science and Marketing at the Chicago Booth School of Business. Her focus in her work is researching social psychology, management and consumer behaviour, and having her on the show to share some of this amazing insight is a real honour! In our conversation, we cover many sides of the goal-setting process, exploring the vast array of research that Ayelet has done and has examined. We talk about the difference between intrinsic and extrinsic goals, the outcomes of tracking progress, what makes an effective goal, and what is meant by a 'goal-system'. Ayelet also shares how this research can inform tasks such as retirement planning, and the work of financial advisors. So for this and a whole lot more that is bound to be illuminating, fascinating, and potentially life-altering, be sure to join us on the show.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • Using goal-setting to address our inability to predict elements of the future. [0:03:50]
  • Differentiating between intrinsic and extrinsic goals. [0:05:00]
  • Ayelet lists some examples of effective goals and their qualities. [0:06:37]
  • The dangers of avoidance and unhealthy goals and how to recognize these. [0:10:48]
  • Exploring the parts of human psychology that push us to always want more. [0:14:46]
  • How quantifiable, self-set targets for goals can aid the process of achieving them. [0:17:18]
  • Weighing the benefits of creating incentives associated with the goals you set. [0:21:45]
  • The roots of intrinsic motivation and how to foster more of these. [0:25:13]
  • Making the pursuit of a goal enjoyable and why this is so important. [0:29:21]
  • How these findings on goal-setting relate to long-term retirement planning. [0:32:10]
  • Ways for financial advisors to make certain processes and tasks more enjoyable for their clients. [0:33:36]
  • The impact of tracking and monitoring progress towards a goal. [0:35:03]
  • Learning from failure and why this can be an unreliable strategy for achievement. [0:39:36]
  • Ayelet describes a goal system and its most important components. [0:43:06]
  • Writing out goal systems and an explanation of the chart that is included in Get It Done. [0:46:17]
  • Prioritization and how to choose between conflicting goals. [0:48:02]
  • Strategies for keeping on track with resolutions; the role of intrinsic motivation and the question of temptations. [0:50:14]
  • How other people and our social environment influence our ability to reach our goals. [0:55:04]
  • Ayelet responds to Ben and Cameron's tendency to avoid setting bigger goals. [0:56:41]
  • How Ayelet goes about setting goals for herself, and how she applies her expertise to her role as a parent. [1:00:53]
  • Learning as the marker of success; why Ayelet feels that she never left school. [1:03:42]

 

Identifying investment goals is a critical step in developing a sound financial plan that helps investors reach their objectives. Studies have shown that using a goals-based framework in financial planning can lead to an increase in wealth for investors and has the potential to strengthen planner-client relationships; but what goals should you be setting? And why is it often so difficult to make these kinds of decisions? In today’s episode, Benjamin dives into some of the research he is conducting about goals-based financial planning for the paper he is writing on the topic, and we discuss why defining and prioritizing goals in the financial planning process is so important (and why it can be so challenging), as well as some practical guidelines to help you set effective goals. Additionally, you’ll learn all about our 22 in 22 Reading Challenge, which we officially launch today with the help of Heather Reisman, book lover, entrepreneur, and CEO of Indigo, Canada’s largest books, gift, and toy retailer. Heather is also the co-creator of the Kobo reading device, a former governor of the Toronto Stock Exchange, and the co-executive producer of the documentary, Fed Up. As you know, the objective of this podcast is to help improve listener’s lives by communicating ideas about sensible investing and financial decision making; and reading is a big part of that. Make sure to tune in to find out where to sign up for the challenge, take note of our book recommendations, and more!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • Learn more about the 22 in 22 Reading Challenge and where to sign up for it. [0:00:35]
  • Introducing today’s special guest, Indigo CEO, Heather Reisman. [0:03:55]
  • Some of the exciting guests you can expect to hear from on the show in future. [0:06:38]
  • Our watchlist recommendations for you, including Ray Donovan: The Movie. [0:08:43]
  • Cameron’s book recommendation: The Culture Code by Daniel Coyle. [0:10:05]
  • Benjamin shares his views on Facebook's one-day $232 billion drop in value. [0:17:16]
  • Why a great company is not necessarily a great investment. [0:22:32]
  • Reflecting on the Talking Cents cards we did with Andrew Hallam in Episode 186. [0:23:45]
  • Onto today’s main topics: how to make sound, goals-based financial decisions. [0:27:20]
  • Why defining and prioritizing goals in the financial planning process is important. [0:30:33]
  • Find out what goals you should set and why it’s difficult to make those decisions. [0:31:19]
  • Practical guidelines to help you set goals from Bond, Carlson, and Keeney in 2010. [0:33:47]
  • Hear some of the goals from the master list that Morningstar put together. [0:36:15]
  • Learn what an effective goal looks like according to Ayelet Fishbach. [0:37:21]
  • Whether you should use approach goals or avoidance goals. [0:39:42]
  • How you can turn your goals into action by creating challenging, measurable, actionable, and self-set targets that don’t feel like chores. [0:42:51]
  • Creating more intrinsic motivation when setting long-term financial planning goals. [0:45:58]
  • Why pursuing goals is more about the journey than it is about actually achieving it. [0:47:08]
  • How top level abstract goals are served by multifinal, equifinal, and unifinal means. [0:48:48]
  • Resolving goal conflicts by prioritizing some goals over others or compromising. [0:50:11]
  • Kicking off the 22 in 22 Reading Challenge with special guest, Heather Reisman. [0:53:12]
  • Why Heather believes reading is so important, starting with the pure joy it brings. [0:53:44]
  • How she decides what to read, whether it’s via recommendations or based on her specific interests at the time. [0:55:59]
  • What her daily reading habits look like that enable her to read 75 books a year. [0:53:30]
  • How reading helps with some mental health issues that stem from social media. [1:01:25]
  • Why she advocates for long-form reading, regardless of whether or not it’s digital. [1:03:38]
  • Learn about the origins and the mission of the Indigo Love of Reading Foundation. [1:05:50]
  • How a community like 22 in 22 might help someone who wants to read more. [1:10:25]
  • Heather’s parting words of advice for listeners: be deliberate about your habits! [1:12:37]

One of our favorite things to do on this show is talk with the amazing authors of new books related to sensible investing. Today we do just that, welcoming back Andrew Hallam to the podcast to talk about his new book, Balance. In it, Andrew tackles the relationship between our finances and happiness, looking at the areas of life that need the most attention, and how we sometimes overlook important aspects of our wellbeing. This is Andrew's third book, and we previously hosted him on the show in Episode 99, so make sure to go back and catch up on that if you have not already listened to it. We have a fascinating chat with Andrew again today, getting to grips with some of the main findings in the book, with our guest unpacking his arguments about material purchases, spending on experiences, gratitude, and financial literacy. We also get to hear from him about the importance of staying light-hearted, and how he defines success and failure. Balance is such an eye-opening and illuminating piece of work, which we highly recommend our listeners check out, so tune in today to get a taste of what it's all about.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • Andrew's explanation of his definition of a successful life. [0:02:53]
  • The questions to ask when prioritizing aspects of one's life. [0:04:35]
  • Worthwhile material purchases and when spending money can truly have a positive impact. [0:06:12]
  • Confusion about real estate and investments; Andrew clarifies the idea of buying property. [0:08:59]
  • Andrew's 'desert island litmus test' for evaluating purchases. [0:12:18]
  • The relationship between social media and our spending habits [0:14:03]
  • Times that more liberal spending might be a good decision; Andrew's emphasis on experiences. [0:17:39]
  • Thoughts on reaching a level of maturity regarding material wealth and satisfaction. [0:24:05]
  • Andrew's reflections on his experiences of cancer in 2009. [0:27:28]
  • The role of gratitude in a good life and increasing its presence in our practices. [0:31:37]
  • How our network and social circles support and enrich our lives. [0:36:39]
  • Index funds and financial literacy; Andrew weighs in on what these allow you to do. [0:37:26]
  • Questions to ask when hiring an advisor; recommended products, financial stories, and more. [0:40:55]
  • Andrew speaks about whether it is smart to have 100% equity. [0:45:59]
  • The ghost story that Andrew uses to illustrate a point about risk assessment. [0:47:48]
  • Deciding between simplified and complicated portfolios. [0:50:11]
  • How parents can approach educating their children on saving and spending. [0:51:39]
  • Andrew weighs in on retirement, career, purpose, and the last phase of life. [0:52:38]
  • Personal finance and good humour; why Andrew embraces the inner child. [0:55:57]
  • Andrew's definition of failure and why it is so important to understand the finite nature of life on a behavioural level. [0:57:04]
  • A round of Talking Cents cards with Andrew. [0:57:38]

As we all know, not all investments are equally exciting, but on today’s show, we make the case that you should not put your money into an ETF just because it is trending. A thematic ETF is a fund that offers the opportunity to invest based on a particular theme, such as climate change or artificial intelligence. The concept behind investment themes is that they ostensibly offer investors the opportunity to participate in potentially disruptive trends with the idea of earning excess returns. The problem we find with these ETFs is that as the markets they are based on attract more attention and an influx of entrants, everybody’s per-share earnings get reduced. By the time a themed ETF becomes investable, it experiences a mean reversion of prices and media sentiment, in contrast to the attractive returns shown in its backtested index. This means that while thematic ETFs are good business for the ETF providers, they do not create value for investors on average. Toward the end of our show, we invite Wes Gray from Alpha Architect to talk about their change from index to active ETFs and more. Wrapping up, Wes along with Robin Taub join us for a lively round of Talking Sense. Tune in today!

Episode 184: Robin Wigglesworth: Unpacking and Understanding Trillions

 

Episode 184: Show Notes.

 

We have often spoken about the book Trillions on the show, and in today's episode, we are lucky enough to interview the author, Robin Wigglesworth. We get to speak to Robin about his book and some of its central and most interesting ideas, while touching on other subjects too. Listeners will definitely come away with some enriched perspective, and hearing Robin's thoughtful and articulate answers was an absolute pleasure for us. Our guest is also the Global Financial Correspondent for the Financial Times, with his contributions to the publication being well worth keeping up with. After distilling some of the history of index investing, Mac McQuown, Jack Bogle, and the building blocks of what we do here at the Rational Reminder, Robin is generous enough to also comment on crypto, tech disruption, private equity, ESG investing, and more. This episode ties in so well with previous conversations we have had and Robin's dedication to his craft as a financial writer is truly inspiring, join us to hear it all.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • Simple reasons for why index funds are the best option for investors. [0:02:40.1]
  • Tracing the roots of the culture of stock picking. [0:05:52.7]
  • The initial intellectual push that the idea of index fund received from Wells Fargo. [0:10:44.4]
  • Touching on some of the important yet lesser-known characters in the history. [0:15:05.8]
  • Robin unpacks the evolution that Jack Bogle went through in the 1960s. [0:17:40.1]
  • Jack Bogle's real superpower and getting to grips with the essence of his philosophy. [0:22:33.4]
  • The important relationship between Dimension and Vanguard. [0:25:42.7]
  • Differentiating between factor investing and total mark indexing. [0:29:24.5]
  • Robin's thoughts on where we are currently with an imaginary alpha. [0:32:46.3]
  • Reasons for Jack Bogle's decision to avoid embracing ETFs early on. [0:35:28.7]
  • Why Robin stands by the idea that markets are not efficient. [0:37:31.8]
  • The impact of bond ETFs on the future of the market. [0:42:48.1]
  • Concerns around proxy votes at bigger asset managers. [0:48:34.4]
  • Some thoughts from Robin about ESG investing and its value. [0:52:17.7]
  • The skepticism that Robin still holds about cryptocurrency and its disruptive characteristics. [0:57:45.2]
  • The example of Albania that Robin has used in his book to illustrate a point about crypto. [1:02:47.6]
  • Looking at the trend towards private equity in the financial world. [1:09:23.4]
  • Robin's own definition of success: the feeling of doing a good job. [1:17:46.6]

 

While there is certainly room for rigorous debate regarding market efficiency versus inefficiency, there are many who dismiss Eugene Fama’s Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) as an incorrect model without understanding what the implications are or how to test it. In today’s episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast, we tackle some common market efficiency myths and misconceptions using Fama’s 1970 paper on EMH as well as supporting papers by Kenneth French, Lubos Pastor, José Scheinkman, and many others. You’ll also hear about behavioural finance, quantitative investing, human bias, and momentum as they relate to market efficiency before debunking some anecdotal misconceptions about EMH involving Warren Buffet and Renaissance Technologies. In addition to our fascinating main topic for today, you’ll get a glimpse into the four waves of a career in Cameron’s review of The Long Game by Dorie Clark and Benjamin shares some notes and corrections regarding the user cost model from Episode 180: Is Canada Really in a Housing Bubble? We also discuss housing as a depreciating asset, innovation stocks in deep value territory, and the size of innovation platforms relative to global market cap and what that means for investors, plus a whole lot more. Make sure not to miss this jam-packed episode for everything you need to know (and forget) about market efficiency!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • Kicking off with a book review of The Long Game by Dorie Clark. [0:10:53]
  • Four waves of a career as per Dorie Clark: learning, creation, connecting, reaping. [0:13:04]
  • Benjamin readdresses the user cost model from Episode 180 on the Canadian housing bubble (or lack thereof). [0:16:06]
  • Insights from the user cost model regarding price sensitivity and rate changes. [0:20:13]
  • Addressing common confusion regarding housing as a depreciating asset. [0:22:53]
  • Speaking of bubbles: innovation stocks in deep value territory as per Cathie Wood. [0:26:08]
  • ARK’s forecast for innovation platforms and the 30-40 percent compound annual rate of return their strategies could deliver in five years. [0:32:01]
  • What deep value looks like according to ARK; prices to book, sale, and earnings. [0:33:30]
  • Thoughts on the size of innovation platforms relative to global market cap. [0:34:47]
  • Why growth in earnings per share, not market cap, results in growth in returns. [0:36:14]
  • The impetus for today’s topic: Market Efficiency Myths and Misconceptions. [0:40:03]
  • Eugene Fama’ himself on why the market isn’t expected to be perfectly efficient. [0:41:44]
  • Testing market efficiency categorized by weak, semi-strong, and strong forms. [0:42:29]
  • Why applied micro-economist and market design specialist Eric Budish believes the market is objectively inefficient at the millisecond horizon. [0:43:35]
  • What EMH has to say about information markets, competition, and actual prices. [0:45:11]
  • Some ways to test market efficiency taking different models into consideration. [0:47:22]
  • Understanding what EMH does not say, including that prices are right at all times. [0:50:43]
  • Alternative models to EMH; behavioural finance as explained by Professor Hersh Shefrin in Episode 167. [0:53:18]
  • What Wes Gray says about quantitative investing and human bias in Episode 69. [0:59:09]
  • Market efficiency and given anomaly: seasonality, momentum, and more. [1:02:12]
  • Ken French on how momentum relates to market efficiency in Episode 100. [1:03:40]
  • Anecdotal misconceptions involving Warren Buffet and Renaissance Technologies. [1:08:54]
  • Whether or not people with specialized knowledge earn excess returns. [1:13:13]
  • Overconfidence as per Ben-David, Graham, Harvey, Scheinkman, and Xiong. [1:17:18]
  • Talking Cents: we share our comfortable and uncomfortable responsibilities. [1:23:53]

One of the pillars of our approach at The Rational Reminder Podcast and PWL Capital is the idea of index investing, a concept that is both fundamental and deeply embedded. Today we are very lucky to have John 'Mac' McQuown on the show, who was behind the creation of the first equity index fund. It is hard for us to overstate just how important this contribution has been to the world of finance and any fund managers and investors that share our philosophy. Mac's work back in the 1960s, his position at Wells Fargo, and his contribution to the founding of Dimensional Fund Advisors all speak for themselves, and we are extremely grateful to get some perspectives from this titan of the world of rational and data-driven investing. In our chat, we get to hear about some of the key points in Mac's career and the general arc of the rise of indexing and diversified investing, the key figures that he worked alongside, his thoughts on the future, and the importance of environmentalism in today's world. So, to hear it all from a hero and giant in the space, be sure to listen in with us today.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • Looking back at the role of data at the beginning of Mac's career. [0:03:00.2]
  • Wall Street in the 1960s, and the amusing experiences Mac had early on. [0:04:20.6]
  • Mac's initial findings when he started analyzing institutional portfolios. [0:07:44.5]
  • Joining Wells Fargo and the team that Mac found himself on. [0:08:28.1]
  • The strong support that Mac and the quantitative approach were given at Wells Fargo. [0:13:36.7]
  • Early tracking of index funds and Mac's memories of the first index they tracked. [0:18:21.3]
  • The initial institutional responses that Mac received to his work with data. [0:20:46.5]
  • How Wells Fargo contributed to the first commercially available index fund. [0:22:24.6]
  • Mac's connection to Jack Bogle and the results of their relationship. [0:27:18.2]
  • The seeds of iShares; Mac traces the beginnings at Wells Fargo. [0:29:57.7]
  • Perspectives on why people still have belief in active investing. [0:33:19.4]
  • Mac's memories of working with David Booth during the founding of Dimensional. [0:34:41.8]
  • Differentiating between Dimensional funds and index funds. [0:36:44.3]
  • Weighing concerns about the growth of indexing and how this may affect pricing and governance. [0:39:52.5]
  • Mac's environmentalist philosophy and his thoughts on practical steps against climate change. [0:42:10.6]
  • How Mac defines success in his life and its relationship to increased curiosity. [0:45:00.2]

We have reached the end of another year, our third while doing this podcast. We are spending this episode on our customary year-end review, and we will be pulling segments from some of the great interviews we hosted over the course of 2021. In doing so, we hope to create a bit of summary of the year and the biggest lessons we all learned together. The podcast has continued to grow beyond our wildest expectations and we are so grateful to be on this journey with our ever-increasing community and audience. We touch on many themes in this recap, moving from general ideas about life, goals, happiness, abundance, and purpose, to more financial subjects of money values, retirement, and crypto, and then into the deeper technical aspects of investment such as value premiums, factors, bonds, and much more. We have tried our best to focus on the segments that we found most enlightening and that changed our perspective, and have highlighted them with reflections and commentary. So to hear it all, join us today, and we'll see you next year, for more of the Rational Reminder Podcast.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • Looking at some of the amazing numbers around the growth of our community. [0:02:37.2]
  • A few shoutouts to the wonderful people who make this podcast possible. [0:04:27.8]
  • Bill Schultheis on how to find and fund a good life. [0:08:34.5]
  • Hal Hershfield's thoughts on making better decisions with your future wellbeing in mind. [0:10:44.3]
  • Ashley Whillans on the relationship between time-poverty and wellbeing, and increased leisure time. [0:13:39.7]
  • Jennifer Risher weighs in on the importance of performing meaningful work. [0:17:24.5]
  • Robin Taub's family money value's from her book, The Wisest Investment: [0:20:04.1]
  • Jennifer Risher's approach to managing money values at home. [0:22:27.7]
  • Katy Milkman applies the central idea from How to Change to saving money. [0:23:22.7]
  • Johanna Peetz on how to use the idea of a future self to reach a goal. [0:26:38.6]
  • Paul Merriman shares his experiences of the relationship between money and a good life. [0:28:27.7]
  • Adriana Robertson's legal perspective on the rise of index funds. [0:33:48.4]
  • Jay Ritter on the question of market efficiency. [0:36:41.8]
  • Hersh Shefrin's emphatic and nuanced advice about how to act in relation to the market. [0:38:20.3]
  • John Cochrane on the shifting relative value of stocks. [0:39:43.3]
  • Rob Arnott shares his thoughts on the drawbacks of cap-weighted indexing. [0:42:31.5]
  • Antonio Picca on the drawbacks of a factor-based investment strategy. [0:47:01.6]
  • John Cochrane on making decisions around owning value stocks. [0:48:10.7]
  • Campbell Harvey talks about conditions for concentrated portfolios. [0:52:20.2]
  • Bill Schultheis on tilting for factors versus sticking with market cap indices. [0:54:02.6]
  • Adriana Robertson shares what the research tells us about the basis for investment decisions. [0:54:46.1]
  • Hersh Shefrin on what really matters with regards to portfolio construction. [0:57:33.0]
  • Antonio Picca on more active approaches and capturing premiums through rebalancing. [0:41:26.0]
  • Brad Cornell explains the differences between a factor and a characteristic. [1:01:52.2]
  • Rob Arnott, David Booth, and Antonio Picca weigh in on the question of value stocks at present. [1:04:22.6]
  • Robert Novy-Marx's approach to cheap stocks and high profitability. [1:11:54.1]
  • Dave Plecha on owning bonds today, in light of historically low interest rates. [1:15:12.0]
  • Anna Lembke on how our daily and long-term decisions are influenced by dopamine. [1:18:20.0]
  • Cullen Roche shares his thoughts on the future of market inflation. [1:22:57.2]
  • Don Ezra's lessons for retirement and better preparation. [1:24:57.6]
  • Anna Lembke on the results of increases in leisure time. [1:27:37.1]
  • David Blanchett's thoughts on the evolving role of the financial advisor. [1:30:50.0]
  • Don Ezra 'seven asset classes of life's abundance portfolio'. [1:33:42.9]

There is no doubt that housing in Canada is expensive, but are we really in a bubble? Today on the show we explore the user cost equation and how it can help us answer this question. Before the main topic, we get warmed up with a behind-the-scenes look at Dell’s growth path in Cameron’s review of Play Nice But Win. From there we address Peter Lynch’s recent warning against passive investing as well as reiterate our position on the performance of small-cap value versus large-cap growth. Heading into our discussion on housing in Canada, we provide a working definition of a housing bubble and present the model used to work out user cost, addressing each factor in some detail. We discuss the risk premium for owning versus renting and highlight an interesting point on high price sensitivity during low-interest rates. The major takeaway after looking at Canada from within this framework is that user costs are in line with what they should be historically, and that saying we are in a housing bubble would be a little drastic!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

  • The effects of the plot of Sex and The City 2021on Peloton stocks. [0:00:20.1]
  • A book review on Play Nice But Win which tells the story of Dell. [0:08:01.1]
  • Mixed responses to the paper, ‘Want to Be Happy? Hire a Financial Advisor’. [0:13:01.1]
  • Active fund performance and thoughts on Peter Lynch’s recent warning against passive investing. [0:17:14.1]
  • Responding to listener disagreement with our research on the high returns of small-cap value ETFs. [0:22:46.1]
  • The huge delta between the performance of ARC versus AVUV. [0:30:27.1]
  • Using the concept of user cost to assess whether there is a housing bubble in Canada.[0:33:52.1]
  • The different inputs into the model used to work out user cost. [0:38:22.1]
  • The definition of a housing bubble and how the facts hold up. [0:39:36.1]
  • The risk premium for owning instead of renting; why owning could be risky. [0:43:39.1]
  • Perspectives on the chance that high prices could be driven by real estate investors.[0:47:03.1]
  • An offsetting factor in the form of a reason for why owning is not risky. [0:49:06.1]
  • If owning a home in Ontario is expensive from a user cost perspective.[0:52:45.1]
  • Whether homeowners are willing to pay inflated prices for housing because they expect unrealistically high housing appreciation in the future. [0:53:54.1]
  • Prices are sensitive to interest rates when interest rates are already low. [0:55:59.1]
  • Tradeoffs, insurance, and taxes in this week’s iteration of Talking Sense. [0:59:27.1]

Of all of the possible disruptive uses of cryptocurrency and blockchain, decentralised finance (or DeFi) might be the one most likely to bring this technology to a wider audience; and challenge the established finance industry in the process. For this week’s episode on crypto-based decentralised finance, we welcome economist and faculty member in the Finance Unit at Harvard Business School, Professor Marco Di Maggio. Tuning in, you’ll learn everything you need to know about DeFi and cryptocurrency, from the most basic definitions to the potential macroeconomic and geopolitical implications of a decentralised reserve currency and the effects  of decentralisation on monetary policy transmission. Tuning in, you’ll learn the definitions for DAOs, DEX, NFTs and more, and Marco elaborates on some of the reasons that decentralisation is seen as an improvement over central systems as well as some of the issues that it represents. Make sure not to miss this enlightening conversation with Professor Marco Di Maggio as he shares his powerful contrasting perspectives on this inherently libertarian technology.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • Marco defines cryptocurrency; simply put, it’s digital currency. [0:02:59]
  • Find out what a DAO is; a community-led entity with no central authority. [0:03:58]
  • How a DAO is different from a corporation in the way it values decentralisation. [0:05:56]
  • Stablecoins as cryptocurrency pegged to fiat currency and backed by collateral. [0:07:07]
  • Learn about decentralised exchanges or DEX, the bonding curve, and Uniswap. [0:09:28]
  • Why decentralisation is seen as an improvement over centralisation; greater transparency and access requiring no counterparty. [0:12:32]
  • When decentralisation is not a good solution given the lack of accountability. [0:14:40]
  • Marco expands on some other issues with the technology, including its environmental impact, volatility, and regulatory uncertainty. [0:16:07]
  • Understanding counterparty risk, returns, and interest rates in the DeFi space. [0:18:39]
  • Why Marco considers blockchain and crypto DeFi a technological revolution. [0:21:41]
  • How someone who owns a total stock market index fund, for example, can benefit from the potential economic gains of this revolution. [0:23:45]
  • Bitcoin versus Ethereum and how Ethereum is used to develop DeFi apps. [0:26:06]
  • Whether Marco predicts a winner-take-all outcome for blockchain technology. [0:28:23]
  • Why rubber stamp regulation and clarity are important for the success of DeFi. [0:29:37]
  • How to approach investing in the DeFi space, looking at risk, exposure, and value. [0:31:30]
  • Marco explains why the Chinese central bank has launched the digital yuan and how the US is lagging behind this innovation [0:34:21]
  • Find out how DeFi ‘super apps’ provide better solutions than online banks. [0:38:33]
  • Distinguishing crypto from fiat currency and the macroeconomic and geopolitical implications of a decentralised reserve currency. [0:40:17]
  • Marco on the potential effect of crypto-based DeFi on monetary policy transmission. [0:42:44]
  • What NFTs are, why they sell for such high prices, and how they can be useful. [0:46:22]
  • How Marco defines success: through the lens of others in his life. [0:49:30]

 

In today’s episode of The Rational Reminder, we tackle the subject of inflation in a twofold manner. Firstly, there are details around how people perceive inflation that often get overlooked, and secondly, these expectations have investment implications that are worth unpacking. Before diving into the main topic, we talk about Colin Bryar’s Working Backwards which tracks the role of failure and customer obsession in Amazon’s growth path. After getting into this week's news and listener question, we begin the first part of our session on inflation. Some of the main points we make here are that everybody experiences inflation differently, that perceptions of inflation are connected to experience, and that biased inflation estimates can explain household borrowing and investing behaviour. This leads us to part two of our discussion, where we unpack how expected inflation influences asset pricing and the role of unexpected inflation in the performance of stocks and bonds. We attempt to locate other asset classes that can act as inflation hedges, but find that with the tradeoffs and poor correlations involved, it makes the most sense to vouch for a properly diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds with exposure to multiple sources of expected return. So before you base too much of your decision-making on inflation, be sure to consider some of the points we make in today’s show.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

  • TV shows, listener feedback, Peloton’s stock price, and RRP updates. [0:00:19.2]
  • Lessons from Amazon’s growth story in this week’s book, Working Backwards. [0:07:55.2]
  • News: Vanguard’s ‘High-Conviction Active Funds’ and Wealthfront’s intention to sell. [0:14:23.1]
  • Whether size premium is influenced by a reduction in IPOs and publicly traded companies. [0:17:36.2]
  • Main topic: Overlooked aspects of inflation and their implications on investing. [0:23:46.2]
  • Metrics from the CPI and how everybody experiences inflation differently. [0:26:36.2]
  • How to work out your personal inflation rate and what Ben and Cameron’s are. [0:28:07.2]
  • Inflation expectations are influenced by inflation experiences. [0:30:43.2]
  • Biased inflation estimates can explain household borrowing/investing behaviour. [0:34:03.5]
  • The implications of the fact that the CPI doesn’t account for substitution. [0:36:07.2]
  • Debunking the assumption that those close to retirement are most exposed to inflation. [0:39:13.2]
  • How financial assets are priced using discount rates and the effects of unexpected inflation on them. [0:43:36.2]
  • The effects of high, low, and expected inflation on stocks and bonds. [0:45:41.2]
  • Whether other asset classes than stocks can be inflation hedges. [0:48:15.2]
  • The relationship of different commodities to inflation at different periods and regions. [0:53:05.2]
  • Questions of status, greed, and decisions in this week’s Talking Sense. [0:56:54.2]

The contemporary world is saturated with ways in which we can experience rewards that were historically much more difficult to access. Although this idea of a world filled with dopamine fixes is not new, it can be continually surprising just how extreme this reality has become. Here on the show today to talk about this issue and her most recent book, Dopamine Nation, is Dr. Anna Lembke, and we have a fascinating and important conversation in which she unpacks the human body and mind in relation to the world around us at present. One of the main points from this chat is the weakness of humans, and how unaware we can be of the way our brains compel us to engage in behaviours and seek pleasure. We get into some strategies and solutions for healthier ways to exist, talking about mindfulness, awareness, and dopamine fasting, in the face of accelerating tech and overabundance. Dr. Lembke gives us a great introduction to dopamine and how it functions in our bodies, unpacks the four properties of addictive substances and activities, the different ways to frame and understand addiction, and shares some realistic ideas about moderation. So to hear all this and much more, tune in to this great episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

  • An introduction to dopamine and its functions in the human body. [0:03:03.2]
  • The human brain and the current overabundance of addictive experiences and substances. [0:05:36.1]
  • Contemporary increasing in different types of addiction. [0:08:13.8]
  • Considering the inherently negative connotation of the word 'addiction'. [0:11:44.4]
  • The reasons that make gambling so addictive to the human mind. [0:14:12.7]
  • Applying what we know about addiction and gambling to speculation and the stock market. [0:18:03.2]
  • Why working also falls into the category of addictive behaviours. [0:21:46.8]
  • Looking at the addictive nature of spending money and shopping. [0:24:01.5]
  • A shocking story about water addiction from Dr. Lembke's practice. [0:25:12.1]
  • Thoughts on recognizing addiction and possible ways to stop the behaviours. [0:26:22.2]
  • Using in moderation; Dr. Lembke comments on the realities of this idea. [0:29:32.7]
  • Long-term decision making versus a dopamine-laden environment; the battle of our time. [0:31:00.4]
  • Understanding hormesis, seeking pleasure through pain, and embracing volatility in a portfolio. [0:34:54.6]
  • The impacts of increased leisure time and the question of what we need. [0:38:47.6]
  • Lembke's advice around retirement and the dangers of dopamine deficit states. [0:42:43.3]
  • How the era of the pandemic has affected these trends in addiction. [0:45:20.2]
  • The relationship between radical honesty and dopamine; how lying is related to reward pathways. [0:48:39.6]
  • Radical honesty and better parenting; Dr. Lembke's thoughts on transparency. [0:54:01.3]
  • Weighing the value of shame and its power as a socially regulating force. [0:55:51.2]
  • Lembke's definition of success and its connection to being a good parent and becoming a positive force in the world. [1:00:01.6]

Today we have a guest join us on one of our 'us episodes', and we are very lucky to welcome Mathias Hasler to take part in the last section of today's podcast. Mathias is a Visiting Assistant Professor of Finance at Boston College, and his primary research focuses are empirical asset pricing, market efficiency, value investing, and corrections for data mining. In our chat with him today, we zoom in on a specific paper of his and its proposition about 'the six decisions' and their alternatives. Before we dive in with Mathias, we spend a little time with our usual round-up; looking at a new book by Hubert Joly, and fielding a very interesting listener question about value and investing in relation to green investments. Also, make sure to stay tuned for some thought-provoking Talking Sense cards with Mathias at the tail end of today's podcast.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • This week's book review for The Heart of Business and a look at some of its main ideas. [0:05:12.4]
  • A quick recap of some fundamental information regarding inflation hedging. [0:09:45.1]
  • A listener question about value and ESG investing, and the relationship between factors and sectors. [0:13:40.4]
  • Unpacking the six decisions that Mathias outlines in his recent paper. [0:34:42.8]
  • The process that Mathias went through testing his alternatives to the six decisions. [0:40:18.3]
  • Differences between conditional and unconditional value premiums estimates. [0:43:39.5]
  • The implications of Mathias' findings for investors pursuing value. [0:47:08.2]
  • A round of Talking Sense cards with Mathias relating to saving and spending, job outcomes, and more. [0:49:20.1]

Today we are tackling the vitally important subject of financial literacy from the standpoint of parents wanting to educate their children. We have a true expert on the show today to help us with this discussion, and we cannot wait to share this highly actionable and impactful conversation with our audience. Robin Taub is a former CPA turned author, and her book, The Wisest Investment, approaches the need to educate children from an early age, and the best strategies that parents can use for this task. Robin previously worked at Citibank in derivatives marketing and brings the high-level expertise of accounting to her book and this episode of the podcast. We strongly support her perspective on financial education and believe the framework she discusses here and shares in her book is well worth any parent's time. In our conversation, we cover all the important bases; financial values, summer jobs, investment apps, human capital, and everything in between, so make sure to listen with us to hear it all.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

  • Unpacking Robin's beliefs about the importance of financial education in the family. [0:02:55.2]
  • Financial education in the Canadian schooling system; Robin weighs in on its success. [0:04:08.6]
  • The assessment that parents can make about being role models to their children. [0:06:53.1]
  • The communication of values through the process of teaching and learning. [0:09:01.8]
  • Ideas for the appropriate time to start teaching kids about money. [0:11:40.5]
  • Using teachable moments to begin the conversation about money. [0:14:35.3]
  • Thoughts about allowances and best practices for parents. [0:18:09.7]
  • The evolution of money conversations as children grow older; increasing sophistication over the years. [0:23:46.9]
  • Benefits and considerations when introducing the concept of working for money. [0:27:30.3]
  • How social media can impact young people's spending, and how to mitigate these effects. [0:31:26.2]
  • Robin weighs in on the question of cellphones and when children should get one. [0:38:42.6]
  • Increasing financial responsibilities as children grow older, and beginning the conversation about investments. [0:40:37.3]
  • The impact of investment apps and how to minimize the damage they can do. [0:45:21.1]
  • Teaching children about philanthropy and the importance of sharing. [0:47:04.6]
  • Weighing up the idea of getting a financial advisor involved in your child's life. [0:49:27.3]
  • The concept of human capital and how to approach it in your family. [0:50:51.1]
  • Robin's thoughts on conversations about entrepreneurship. [0:54:48.6]
  • Breaking the cycle of financial problems in a household that is struggling. [0:57:54.3]
  • Minimizing entitlement in a family of greater financial means. [0:59:42.8]
  • Reasons for the shift that Robin made from her career as a CPA to becoming an author. [1:03:30.1]
  • Robin's personal definition of success; finding satisfaction in the important areas of life. [1:05:20.5]

It sounds reasonable to say that investing in the most popular companies would produce the best returns, but this is just not how asset pricing works. Today on the show, we unpack the ‘good company is a good investment’ fallacy. Before diving into the main topic, we kick off our discussion on the subject of index funds with Robert Wigglesworth’s Trillions. From there, we share some updates about custom indexing and home buying in Canada, along with the immense valuation of Tesla as well as Elon Musk’s net worth. This acts as a great segue into the focus of today’s show: a so-called good company has high historical returns, strong earnings growth, strong forecasted earnings growth, and high prices. But just because the good companies have done well historically, this does not mean they will continue to be a good investment. In fact, there is a premium that says that higher-priced stocks earn lower returns than lower-priced stocks and value stocks. We unpack several papers that explore the concept that it is the lesser-known companies that tend to have better returns. We also get into how growth extrapolation, the skewness effect, and the big market delusion plays into the good company is a good investment fallacy. Our discussion concludes with the idea that investors are better off paying attention to expected returns rather than falling victim to extrapolation errors. Tune in today!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • Introductory comments: modifications to the show, listener feedback, and more. [0:00:30.2]
  • Book review of the week: Trillions by Robert Wigglesworth. [0:08:28.3]
  • News updates: custom indexing, Tesla valuation, homebuyer gifts, and more. [0:12:23.2]
  • Introducing today’s topic: the ‘good company is a good investment’ fallacy. [0:19:30:9]
  • Investing in good companies is irrational because of how asset pricing works. [0:20:44.7]
  • The threat that crypto and decentralized applications pose to good companies. [0:21:50.5]
  • Higher-priced stocks earn lower returns than lower-priced and value stocks. [0:24:40.3]
  • Findings from papers exploring glamorous stocks and investor bias. [0:27:21.2]
  • The problem of extrapolating growth too far into the future. [0:34:07.1]
  • Behaviour patterns of lottery-like stocks with high expected skewness. [0:37:17.4]
  • Declining prices and the big market delusion. [0:39:51.1]
  • The high prices and low expected returns of the NIFTY 50 companies. [0:44:05.2]
  • What the Fama French Five-Factor Model has to say about how assets are priced. [0:45:30.2]
  • Talking Cents: Questions about the price we pay for riches. [0:46:50.2]

In our conversation this week, we take a deep dive into factor investing. We are joined by the formidable Antonio Picca, Head of Factor Strategies at Vanguard, to help us navigate this complicated topic. Antonio is one of the largest asset managers in the world, with over seven trillion dollars under management. Among his credentials is a Master's in Finance and Economics from the London School of Economics, as well as a Doctorate in Finance and Economics from Chicago, where he was also a teaching assistant with Gene Fama. During our discussion, we cover a broad series of questions on factor investing, while also venturing into deeply technical territory. We examine how one might make the transition to factor investing after gaining confidence in passive investing and unpack important questions around factor investing and risk. Another fascinating topic we cover is how factor investing resembles active investing, including some crucial distinctions. Next, we take a look at some of the negative connotations of active investing and investigate why those issues may not apply to factor investing. Antonio goes on to explain why factor investing is a natural extension of a broad equity market investing and illustrates how it aligns with Vanguard’s philosophy, which is a belief in low-cost, long-term focus, and broad diversification. You won’t want to miss this excellent opportunity to gain a deeper understanding of factor investing from one of the leading experts in the field. Tune in today to hear it all!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • Introducing today’s guest Antonio Picca, Head of Factor Strategies at Vanguard. [00:00:17]
  • How Antonio would explain factor investing to an existing Vanguard client who's already sold on the idea of low-cost, cap-weighted index investing. [00:03:16]
  • Why clients need to be educated on factor investing, and why factor investing is a form of active investing. [00:04:31]
  • The benefits of targeting other factors in addition to the market risk factor. [00:05:20]
  • Some of the drawbacks to a strategy that targets other factors in addition to the market risk factor. [00:06:41]
  • How Vanguard helps clients determine whether factor investing is the correct course of action for them. [00:08:19]
  • The role that cap-weighted investing plays in the structure of factor products when capital forms the core of your investing, and factor portfolios are secondary. [00:09:35]
  • How investors should think about sizing their factor position, relative to their market cap-weighted position. [00:11:12]
  • How they decide which factors to target in Vanguard's product lineup. [00:12:37]
  • Vanguard’s approach to capacity when considering factors. [00:15:03]
  • How Vanguard decided to target momentum as a standalone factor. [00:16:24]
  • More on the liquidity factor and how Vanguard is targeting it. [00:17:40]
  • A breakdown of what the value factor is. [00:20:12]
  • Why factor investors should want to be active, rather than follow a factor index, despite the negative connotations that come with active investing. [00:22:25]
  • Why negative connotations of active aren’t applicable to active factor investing. [00:24:27]
  • The frequency with which factor funds need to be rebalanced to effectively capture the factor premiums. [00:25:52]
  • Instances where it is possible to quantify the benefit of more frequent rebalancing, or more flexible rebalancing. [00:27:01]
  • Some of the days in early 2020 where there were market movements of multiple percentage points and how Vanguard made decisions accordingly. [00:28:05]
  • Antonio's thoughts on the prospect of quantifying premiums for factors. [00:30:46]
  • The paper that Vanguard is currently working on to determine whether it is possible to time factor premiums, or whether investors maintain consistent exposure to them. [00:32:32]
  • How factor investing is different from traditional active management. [00:33:51]
  • Some of the instances where a factor portfolio can replace an active manager. [00:35:40]
  • Antonio’s experience leading the factor group at Vanguard during a period when large-cap growth stocks have dominated so powerfully. [00:36:43]
  • How Antonio addresses client concerns that factor premiums have changed or decreased. [00:39:30]
  • Antonio’s thoughts on winner-take-all companies and their proliferation. [00:41:47]
  • What Antonio advises investors should be looking for when they're choosing a factor fund. [00:45:49]
  • Some insights into how Antonio’s clients are using factor products. [00:47:15]
  • How Antonio approaches combining multiple factors. [00:48:33]
  • Antonio shares his thoughts on do-it-yourself investors implementing factor portfolios and why he thinks advisors are essential. [00:50:21]
  • How Antonio defines success in life and investing. [00:54:38]

Today we welcome Rob Carrick back to the show to talk about a range of interesting topics, focusing on the Canadian housing market and some of the recent developments from the banking and investment space. Rob has such a balanced and measured approach, qualities that are visible in his long-standing work at The Globe and Mail. We start today's episode with some fun recommendations of books and TV content, before diving into the meat of our conversation. Rob weighs in on the range of perspectives on whether to rent or buy, offering the assurance that renting is a completely acceptable way to manage your needs and means. He also comments on the utility of robo-advisors, the impacts of the recent banking regulations, and shares his surprise at which of his articles have proved most popular. We always feel like we should have Rob on the show more often, and this episode is such a good argument for that very idea. So, to hear all Rob has to say, be sure to join us today.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

  • This week's book and TV recommendations; Impeachment, Capital, Trillions, and more. [0:00:39.2]
  • A call for applicants here at PWL Capital, and some recent reviews for the show. [0:07:17.7]
  • Looking at an excerpt from Azeem Azhar's book, The Exponential Age. [0:11:45.4]
  • A recent study comparing renting and buying in Canada. [0:18:18.6]
  • Rob's observations on the new banking rules in Canada and what they mean for the advisor community. [0:29:27.2]
  • Thoughts on trends in the banking space and the roles of financial professionals. [0:36:07.1]
  • Canada's adoption of indexing: measuring the speed of changes in the country. [0:38:38.7]
  • The role of robo-advisors and why Rob believes strongly in their value. [0:41:48.5]
  • Rob weighs in on the debate of buying versus renting property. [0:44:39.6]
  • Generational flows of money from boomer parents to millennial and Gen Y children. [0:50:52.3]
  • Rob's message to Canadians feeling like they are stuck renting. [0:54:24.1]
  • Some of Rob's most popular articles from over the years. [0:55:20.7]
  • Lessons from Sweden's housing market and considering Canada's possible future. [0:59:03.6]
  • A round of Talking Sense cards with Rob dealing with most prized possessions, lending, and happiness. [1:02:26.3]
  • Assessing some of Robert Kyosaki's recent comments on a looming crash. [1:08:29.1]
  • The present is exciting in finance; why Rob is enjoying the ride. [1:14:22.5]

For this week’s episode (our longest to date), we get together with the legendary Professor Campbell R. Harvey and take a deep dive into a diverse range of topics that draw on his incredible breadth of knowledge and extensive research. Campbell is the Professor of International Business at Duke University and is also a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. In 2016 he served as the President of the American Finance Association, and from 2006 to 2012 he occupied the incredibly demanding role of Editor for the Journal of Finance. One of his earliest achievements was identifying the inverted yield curve’s ability to predict a recession, a highly regarded metric that is near-ubiquitous in its implementation. For the first half of our conversation, we focus on his research in areas like skewness and emerging economies. We cover specific topics like the factor zoo, why it’s problematic, and how Campbell, along with his student Yan Lui, found through their research that approximately half of the published empirical research in finance at the time was, in fact, false. We also unpack his most downloaded paper entitled The Golden Dilemma and get into the intricacies of why gold is an unreliable inflation hedge. For the latter half of our conversation, we hear about Campbell’s latest book DeFi and the Future of Finance along with his most recent research. Discover how Campbell first became interested in the topic several years ago and decided to put together a course for his students. We also delve into the rise of decentralized finance (DeFi) and how we can expect it to shape global finance, trading, and the future of the internet. Join us today for this essential episode on everything from the pitfalls of academia, to emerging markets, to Bitcoin, and much more!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • Introducing this week’s guest Professor Campbell Harvey. [00:02:46]
  • How Campbell’s research brought him to Chicago's Ph.D. program. [00:03:55]
  • How Campbell identified that an inverted yield curve had preceded the past four recessions and could be a reliable economic predictor. [00:07:03]
  • Hear about Campbell’s research on skewness, as opposed to simply mean and variance, which is often the focus of portfolio theory. [00:11:40]
  • Why it’s surprising that skewness is still largely disregarded in favor of mean and variance. [00:16:42]
  • Why mean and variance are insufficient for measuring risk when comparing a concentrated portfolio with a more diversified portfolio. [00:20:45]
  • Some of the special considerations that Campbell prioritizes when assessing emerging markets in context and managing an overall portfolio.[00:22:04]
  • Observations on the cost of capital being higher before integration and liberalization. [00:25:11]
  • The implications that Campbell’s research on emerging markets has on asset allocation. [00:26:51]
  • Dynamic asset allocation, Campbell’s research in emerging markets, and how those lessons can be applied when investing in emerging markets at a time when the cost of capital is high. [00:30:04]
  • The factor zoo, why it’s problematic, and how it is caused by data mining. [00:32:26]
  • How Campbell and his student Yan Lui estimated that half of the published empirical research in finance was false and how this has occurred in other industries due to data mining. [00:33:02]
  • How economic incentives from the investment industry inform research. [00:39:38]
  • The important distinction between academic research and practitioner research, and asset management. [00:44:15]
  • The extent to which asset management research could be considered to be more reliable than academic research. [00:47:23]
  • Some of the mistakes that investors make when they pursue these factor premiums that have been identified [00:49:29]
  • Machine learning and its impact on investment decisions for retail and institutional investors. [00:56:06]
  • Whether the benefits of potential alpha from machine learning will be passed on to investors or remain within a firm as their scale increases. [01:00:22]
  • Campbell’s research on traditional active management within the context of a firm’s ability to continue delivering alpha in the future, and how that incrementally decreases as their asset base increases. [01:06:23]
  • The arguments in favor of allocating gold to a portfolio, especially at times of higher inflation, and whether it holds up to scrutiny. [01:09:54]
  • How technological changes can affect the real expected return. [01:16:51]
  • Why gold can be a valuable asset in diversifying your portfolio. [01:17:22]
  • How Campbell became interested in DeFi, cryptocurrency, and blockchain technology. [01:19:19]
  • How digitized finance cuts out the inefficiency of having a middle person and fosters inclusion and financial democracy. [01:26:35]
  • Harvey’s thoughts on how cryptocurrencies facilitate criminal and fraudulent activity. [01:31:07]
  • How DeFi could disrupt traditional asset management and how to prepare for those changes. [01:36:43]
  • How to invest in DeFi even though it’s decentralized. [01:38:33]
  • How companies can increase their revenue by using cryptocurrencies in their transactions. [01:43:24]
  • Why the current wave of FinTech will be replaced by DeFi. [01:44:58]
  • Why it’s important to have a very diverse portfolio when investing in DeFi. [01:51:22]
  • How DeFi will allow people to monetize their content and disrupt the money that Google and Facebook make from their users’ data. [01:52:22]
  • Some of the risks of DeFi and investing in cryptocurrencies. [01:55:27]
  • How Campbell defines success: positively impacting the world. [02:00:17]

For decades, owning a home has been seen as a hallmark of the ‘American dream’ and a major life milestone. While we take it for granted that home ownership is good, we make the argument in today’s episode that, from the perspective of subjective well-being, owning a home isn’t necessarily the key to happiness. This conversation covers the non-financial aspects of homeownership and why owning a home isn’t necessarily superior to renting one. This is supported by data from a number of different studies that describe the relationship between experienced happiness and life evaluation, and how the decision to buy or rent relates to effective forecasting, for example. Benjamin unpacks concepts like focalism, hedonic adaptation, and buyer's remorse, as well as social comparison and happiness when it comes to material purchases like homes. He concludes with the following words of wisdom: buying a house will not make you happy, but that doesn’t mean it’s a bad decision. During the course of today’s episode, we also touch on Shane Parrish’s The Great Mental Models Volume 3: Systems and Mathematics, how individuals engage in panic selling according to the recent MIT study, ‘When Do Investors Freak Out?’, and some of the listener discussion points that arose from our in-depth conversation with John Cochrane in Episode 169. Tune in today for all this, plus so much more!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • Find out why you should listen to Tim Ferriss’ interview with Micheal Dell. [0:07:06]
  • Today’s recommended book: The Great Mental Models Volume 3 by Shane Parrish. [0:08:05]
  • Unpacking how individuals engage in panic selling according to the MIT study, ‘When Do Investors Freak Out?’ [0:11:10]
  • We weigh in on three top Canadian banks halting sales of third-party mutual funds in preparation for Know Your Product (KYP) rule reform. [0:13:53]
  • Ben highlights some listener discussion points following the John Cochrane episode. [0:16:34]
  • Learn how predictable returns result from unpredictable cashflows in the long run. [0:18:23]
  • What this means for long-term investors: focus on cashflow payoffs, not returns. [0:18:59]
  • Why stocks are less risky for long-term investors if returns are predictable, which introduces horizon effects and impacts portfolio theory. [0:20:49]
  • Key takeaways: outside income streams as additional asset classes, value versus growth, pure wealth investors versus labor market investors. [0:21:42]
  • Introducing Ben’s topic for this week: does owning a home make you happy? [0:28:15]
  • Some perceptions about the correlation between homeownership and happiness. [0:29:53]
  • Why the non-financial aspects of renting might make it superior to home ownership. [0:31:50]
  • Expanding on the 2011 paper, ‘The American Dream or the American Delusion?’ [0:32:10]
  • Conclusions from the 2019 paper, ‘Homeownership and Happiness’, that Swiss homeowners are no happier or even less happy than renters. [0:33:57]
  • The relationship between ownership and slightly elevated reflective life satisfaction; the difference between experienced happiness and life evaluation. [0:34:15]
  • Ben reflects on how the decision to buy or rent relates to affective forecasting. [0:35:02]
  • Focalism: how experience is shaped by how we spend our time rather than more stable circumstances like paying for housing. [0:37:50]
  • How to deal with poor affective forecasting, hedonic adaptation, and buyer's remorse by making smaller, more frequent experiential purchases. [0:41:26]
  • What Elizabeth Dunn and Michael Norton have to say about homeownership in Happy Money. [0:43:14]
  • Social comparison and happiness when it comes to material purchases like homes. [0:43:57]
  • How housing impacts life satisfaction: quality, economic effects, prestige, freedom. [0:46:09]
  • Ben on how working from home can exacerbate possible issues for homeowners. [0:51:28]
  • Concluding this topic: why homeowners are not automatically happier than renters. [0:52:05]
  • Personally, Ben shares why he would rather own more of his time than his home. [0:53:27]
  • Suggested reading, including Positive Psychology and The Happiness Hypothesis. [0:54:35]
  • Talking Sense: whether success is based on money, cost versus value, and more! [0:57:38]

Today's conversation is an extremely enlightened and highly detailed one, that you may want to return to, in order to accrue all of its value. We host John Cochrane, an economist specializing in financial economics and macroeconomics. John has a popular blog and podcast called The Grumpy Economist and also hosts the GoodFellows Podcast. He is a Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and a senior fellow at Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, and was a Professor at the Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago. In this fascinating chat, John shares so much of his expertise, going in-depth on the subjects that we and our audience are constantly exploring and excited about. We discuss long-horizon stocks, market inefficiency and return predictability, classic portfolio theory, risk-less assets, and performance evaluation. John also shares his perspectives on the future of centralized finances, digital and cryptocurrencies, and where the business of financial advice is headed. So for all this and more from a leader in his field, be sure to join us for this great episode of the Rational Reminder.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

  • Breaking down the basics of why stock prices go up and looking at the market as a whole. [0:02:05.8]
  • The information contained in valuation ratios about long-horizon stock returns. [0:04:25.3]
  • Market inefficiency and return predictability; unpacking the opinions on the correlation. [0:07:17.8]
  • What the research on available information and market timing tells us about predictability. [0:12:59.6]
  • Under-appreciating risk and asking important questions about dividend growth in the future. [0:18:46.5]
  • The huge impact that predictability can have on classic portfolio theory. [0:22:36.2]
  • Volatility aversion and communicating important concepts across divides. [0:28:11.7]
  • John explains the risk-less asset for the long-term investor. [0:30:12.6]
  • Using the example of bonds to get to grips with performance evaluation. [0:36:26.8]
  • Unpacking the roots of wealth inequality and the best perspectives for understanding it. [0:40:30.4]
  • Misguided thoughts about the market and the usefulness of keeping general equilibrium in mind. [0:44:14.1]
  • Market portfolios and the zero-sum game; hedging state variable risk. [0:52:40.5]
  • Decisions about the ability to bear the value risk premium and allocation. [0:58:10.7]
  • John's thoughts on the future of financial advice. [1:01:27.8]
  • Describing the fiscal theory of the price level and its predictions about inflation. [1:06:03.6]
  • Cryptocurrencies and value maintenance; John's perspective. [1:13:12.8]
  • Assessing the longevity of traditional or centralized finance. [1:19:15.4]
  • John's own definition of success in the different areas of his life. [01:22:06.1]

Today we have a somewhat unique episode for all of our listeners, rounding up the news and information from the world of finance and investment before we welcome Ben Rabidoux back to the show. Ben was a guest on Episode 96, which aired early during the pandemic last year, and we are so happy to have him here for another appearance, to touch in with his real estate expertise, and his thoughts on the current issues facing the Canadian housing market. Ben is the Founder of Edge Realty Analytics and North Cove Advisors and is essentially a real estate analyst, which means he has many clients that are institutional investors and fund managers, who he helps with the real estate side of their portfolios. In this conversation, Ben gives us loads of insight into the current landscape of Canadian real estate, the roots of the contemporary conditions, and what the data can teach us about the high prices that are so prevalent at present. We also hear from Ben about some potential policy solutions, and how the pandemic has affected the rental market. So for all this and a whole lot more in today's episode, be sure to join us on the Rational Reminder Podcast.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • Some of the best media we have encountered recently; podcasts, documentaries, and more. [0:02:01.3]
  • News from the community and why we had to ban a user for the first time. [0:03:46.1]
  • Quick book reviews of the illuminating DeFi and the Future of Finance and Blockchain Bubble or Revolution. [0:07:05.8]
  • Changes in the world of finance and investment; Walgreens' new bank account and beyond. [0:12:22.3]
  • Today's listener question dealing with research-based investment decisions and frequently cited papers. [0:15:27.5]
  • Recent research from Robert Novy-Marx and Fama and French on US value premiums and factors that matter. [0:22:01.3]
  • How to view the possibility of a replication crisis in finance. [0:31:10.8]
  • Findings on US exceptionalism and the relationship between national economic growth and returns. [0:33:49.6]
  • Market crashes and the correlations between different countries. [0:37:12.6]
  • Reflecting on Ben's appearance on the podcast during the early weeks of the pandemic. [0:39:38.3]
  • The last few decades of the 20th century and how that explains the current climate. [0:43:50.2]
  • The chronic issue of under-supply of housing from the industry. [0:45:30.1]
  • Housing policies that would support the current rates of population growth. [0:48:20.4]
  • Examples and thoughts on the recent house price increases. [0:48:48.6]
  • Statistics of homes bought by investors; surprising numbers and data on purchases. [0:52:58.2]
  • News from the rental market and the interesting ways the pandemic affected it. [0:57:05.1]
  • Common Canadian perspectives on the potential for housing pricing to decline. [1:00:58.4]
  • Ben's thoughts on possible solutions to the current problems in the housing sector. [1:03:47.6]
  • The significant role of the private debt market in Canadian real estate. [1:08:02.2]
  • What we can learn from historic data about the current housing prices. [1:12:15.1]
  • Ben joins us for a round of questions from our Talking Sense cards about savings, happiness, and flow states! [1:15:27.4]

In many episodes of this podcast we refer to the psychological component of investing, and today we are very happy to host a global authority on the subject and share an absolute masterclass about behavioural psychology as it relates to our finances and the decisions we make. We welcome Professor Hersh Shefrin to the show, who is the author of many books including the seminal Beyond Greed and Fear, which he wrote in the last 1990s, and still holds much value and relevance in today's climate. Professor Shefrin is kind enough to share some reflections on how his understanding of the themes discussed in the book has evolved since those days and unpacks some great pieces from the book for listeners to digest. We get into some specific and technical questions about investing, looking at pursuing the alpha, momentum, and index funds, before our guest also weighs in with some broader, more philosophical responses to our queries. The conversation covers the psychological needs of investors, expected returns, and of course biases. Listeners can expect to come away with a clearer and more detailed picture of ideas we often reference, so make sure to join us for this incredible exploration with Hersh.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

 

  • The key message about market psychology from Beyond Greed and Fear. [0:03:23.1]
  • Beyond Greed and Fear's three themes: heuristic-driven bias, framing effects, and inefficient markets. [0:04:39.3]
  • Reflecting on these themes in a modern context and how our understanding has been refined. [0:12:53.6]
  • Considering index funds in light of market efficiency frameworks. [0:21:08.3]
  • Assessing one's ability to pursue the alpha and Professor Shefrin's advice to this end. [0:27:14.1]
  • Possible reasons for large numbers of active money managers at institutions. [0:30:20.6]
  • Understanding risk-based asset pricing models and expectations of higher returns when investing in riskier stocks. [0:34:41.8]
  • The impact of behaviour-based versus risk-based explanations for investors. [0:40:00.2]
  • Utilizing momentum in a portfolio: Professor Shefrin's explanation of this interesting phenomenon. [0:41:58.6]
  • Comparing the current trading landscape with the advent of online trading in the '90s. [0:46:25.5]
  • The addictive potential of stock trading; what we know about the neuroscience. [0:49:02.3]
  • Unpacking the idea of growth opportunities bias and implicit assumptions about averages. [0:52:14.4]
  • Weighing the relevance of the mean-variance framework to individual investors. [0:57:48.2]
  • 'Carrying a psychological call option'; why Professor Shefrin's depicts advisors in this way. [0:59:09.3]
  • Professor Shefrin's perspective on the interchangeability of dividends and capital gains. [1:04:42.9]
  • The big influence that Professor Shefrin's uncle had on his career! [1:08:53.1]
  • How Professor Shefrin defines success in his personal life and career. [1:12:12.7]

In this week’s episode, Cameron and Benjamin share what’s on their mind and delve into listener questions on subjects ranging from the CAPE ratio to how to go about changing someone’s mind. Tuning in you’ll get a preview of some of the formidable guests featured on future episodes, like John Cochrane and Hersh Shefrin. We also cover book recommendations and unpack the concept of libertarian paternalism from the highly influential best-seller, Nudge: The Final Edition by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein, and how it can be a force for good. We cover various facets of passive investing and index funds including how, despite its proven effectiveness, many people continue to take a dim view of it. Learn why certain personality types may be more drawn to active investing and why. We also share tips for reasoning with skeptics, including some useful questions to ask when things get heated. Next, we take an in-depth look at index funds and global returns over the last century based on the research of Dimson, Marsh, and Staunton and their book Triumph of the Optimists. We also answer questions from our Talking Cents Cards and take a look at the best bad advice from the previous week. This episode is packed with fascinating anecdotes and excellent recommendations that you won’t want to miss! Tune in today!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

  • We reflect on some of the reviews and feedback we’ve received over the past week. [0:03:00.7]
  • An overview of the guests that listeners can look forward to on future episodes. [0:06:15.8]
  • Talking Cents Cards and how they can introduce your family to conversations about money. [0:07:01.2]
  • Introducing Nudge: The Final Edition by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein, and the concept of libertarian paternalism. [0:08:50.0]
  • Cameron shares his story of the week, an article from Magnify Money on how emotions can influence investor decisions. [0:13:53.3]
  • An update on our response to a listener question on the CAPE ratio by discussing the work of John Cochrane on determining predictability. [0:17:24.2]
  • We unpack a listener question on whether one should be looking to convert family members who fit into the average, active investor archetype. [0:21:47.6]
  • What Benjamin has learned from Think Again by Adam Grant, about how to talk to people you disagree with. [0:24:15]
  • How Benjamin experienced a revelation on index funds. [0:29:28.5]
  • An examination of index funds and global returns over the last century based on the research of Dimson, Marsh, and Staunton and their book Triumph of the Optimists. [0:36:30.3]
  • An in-depth look at how global events factor into Dimson, Marsh, and Staunton’s data. [0:39:35.9]
  • How dictatorships, civil troubles, wars, unsuccessful economic and monetary policies, and communism have prevented countries from transitioning from emerging to developed. [0:42:43]
  • Cameron and Benjamin answer a Talking Cents card question by sharing the first big purchases that they saved up for. [0:50:47.6]
  • Cameron and Benjamin answer a second card question: What is a creative way to save money in today’s digital era? [0:52:53.8]
  • Hear this week’s bad advice from an Entrepreneur article titled: 7 Downsides to Passive Investing and Why it Can Be Bad for Your Portfolio. [0:54:09.2]

The evergreen subject of retirement planning is something that we prioritize here at the Rational Reminder Podcast, and today we have a very interesting conversation in which we explore the topic from a slightly different perspective. We are joined by Gordon Irlam, who is a notable researcher with a wealth of experience from the world of tech and beyond. We have the chance to ask Gordon about bonds, annuities, and optimal allocations for different outlooks, and also get his perspective on charitable giving, effective altruism, and different spending plans. Gordon has conducted some amazing research and even developed his own tools to help investors calculate the variables of their situations. This episode is a great gateway for listeners to explore these concepts, as well as make use of Gordon's resources. Our guest's personal story is equally fascinating, after working with Google early on, and subsequently starting a company that was then acquired by Google, Gordon has leveraged his experience and finances in order to continue asking questions that interest him and will definitely interest our listeners. So for this standout conversation with a great mind, be sure to take a listen.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

  • Looking back on the Google equity that Gordon sold and how he feels about the decision now. [0:03:00.8]
  • Google’s acquisition of a company that Gordon started and the impact of this financial windfall. [0:04:33.1]
  • Gordon's explanation of effective altruism and how he utilizes the idea. [0:06:25.3]
  • Approaches to asset allocation for foundations and how this differs from personal funds. [0:10:28.7]
  • Comparing practitioner and economist approaches to financial planning. [0:15:59.7]
  • An explanation of stochastic dynamic programming and its strengths. [0:17:45.5]
  • Why Gordon now favors reinforcement learning over stochastic dynamic programming. [0:20:12.6]
  • Considering the role of annuities in Gordon's optimal model for retirement planning. [0:25:05.3]
  • Constant spending versus variable spending in the optimal retirement plan. [0:27:55.2]
  • Gordon's practical advice for entering retirement and tracking spending. [0:29:35.8]
  • Exploring mean reversion in stock returns for tactical planning. [0:32:16.6]
  • A message from Gordon about fixed guaranteed income and the value of long-duration inflation index bonds. [0:35:18.7]
  • Advice to younger individuals and investors; the importance of saving. [0:36:18.9]
  • Thoughts on possible future innovations for the problem of better portfolio building. [0:37:45.3]
  • Gordon's definition of success: the ability to work on interesting and important problems. [0:40:26.2]

Today’s episode is the first that takes a new format we are piloting, where we compile clips from the most valuable conversations we have had in different episodes on a given topic. To kick it all off we will be devoting this episode to inflation-adjusted retirement spending and the nuances of the 4% rule. We start off with a clip from our conversation with Bill Bengen, creator of the 4% rule, where he explains the concept. From there, we pull up an excerpt from an interview with Wade Pfau, hearing him weigh in on how this rule only works in the context of the US and Canada. Next up, Fred Vetesse talks about the changes in stock and bond yields and how they further problematize the 4% rule. After that, Professor Moshe Molevsky makes the case for flexible spending, followed by Michale Kitces with his favourite variable spending rules. We grab a segment from our chat with Scott Rieckens where he argues that the 4% rule should be seen as more of a guideline for making financial decisions than a rule. Bill Bengen’s interview then features again as we hear his comments on the effects of small-cap value stocks and cyclically adjusted price-earnings on safe withdrawal rates. Tune in for this fascinating set of highlights, the main point of which is that the 4% rule should rather be used as a guideline for financial planning and that where actual spending is concerned, a flexible approach is more sensible.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

  • Bill Bengen, creator of the 4% rule, explains how the concept relates to inflation-adjusted retirement spending. [0:03:50.8]
  • Wade Pfau speaks about how the 4% rule doesn’t work in an international context. [0:09:15.0]
  • Fred Vettesse lays out the contrast between today and the period Bill studied. [0:12:31.1]
  • The importance of having flexibility in retirement spending with Moshe Milevsky. [0:14:51.8]
  • Variable spending rules with Michael Kitces; ratcheting, guardrails, and more. [0:19:27.3]
  • Scott Rieckens on the 4% rule as a tool for making financial decisions. [0:32:33.8]
  • Bill Bengen comments on the problems that have been found with the 4% rule. [0:38:35.7]
  • The effects of small-cap value stocks on the safe withdrawal rate with Bill Bengen. [0:42:52.8]
  • The effects of cyclically adjusted price-earnings on safe withdrawal rates with Bill Bengen. [0:47:20.6]
  • Final thoughts on the 4% rule with Ben and Cameron. [0:51:37.8]

 

Even among rational investors with diversified portfolios, there seems to be less known about the inner workings of the bond portion of their investments. Here on the show today to help us get a better understanding of fixed income investments is none other than Dave Plecha, Global Head of Fixed Income at Dimensional Fund Advisors. Dave is one of the authorities on the subject of bonds and is amazing at articulating the concepts at play in this arena. This conversation goes in-depth, but is also a great starting point for investors to begin thinking about this part of a portfolio, and deepen an understanding of something that is so often misunderstood or misused. As you will hear, Dave has a real passion for this subject and has been presenting and speaking on precisely this work for the last twenty years. We cover a lot of ground with Dave, talking about why his approach might be confused with a certain type of market timing, the impacts of inflation, the current low interest rates and if these affect bond investments, an explanation of forward rates, and so much more that you will not want to miss. We even find time for a quick story about Dave's early days working with Eugene Fama, so make sure to stay tuned in for that.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

  • Assessing the role of bonds in a portfolio, in relation to the current low interest rates. [0:02:30.3]
  • Concerns over negative interest rates for bond investors. [0:05:30.1]
  • Bonds and real returns; the impact of inflation on Canada's market. [0:09:30.7]
  • Dave's perspective on the argument for long bonds as diversifying assets. [0:15:39.4]
  • Comparing and contrasting the bond market with the stock market. [0:17:55.7]
  • The trading of bonds and what differentiates it from trading stocks. [0:22:29.5]
  • The volatility of last March and Dave's reflections on trading during that period. [0:27:17.8]
  • Differentiating Dimensional's approach to bonds from the other big firms'. [0:29:21.7]
  • The primary factors that influence expected returns in fixed income. [0:31:40.4]
  • Understanding forward rates and the information they provide about expected returns. [0:37:26.7]
  • Building better investing strategies using forwards rates. [0:40:43.5]
  • Clarifying expected premiums for maturity in a variable maturity strategy. [0:44:06.7]
  • Dave explains why market timing does not work with regard to fixed income. [0:46:30.4]
  • Quantifying the differences in expected returns from the index and Dimensional. [0:51:01.7]
  • A great argument from Dave for maintaining a diversified approach to all investments. [0:52:31.51]
  • The connection between present observable credit spreads and future realized payments. [0:55:48.5]
  • The game-changing development of Trace in the bond market. [0:59:40.2]
  • Applying the Dimensional approach as a do-it-yourself investor. [1:05:57.7]
  • A great story from Dave about his early days working with Eugene Fama. [1:10:25.2]
  • How Dave defines success in his life and work these days. [1:11:30.1]

Today our main topic expands on a recent episode in which we talked about what constitutes good financial advice, and here we look at how to go about finding the kind of advice that you want and need. It is one thing to know what it is, but that does mean it is straightforward to locate an advisor or firm that provides it. After our opening salvo of some media recommendations and a review of the fascinating book on different ideas on leadership, called The Starfish and the Spider, we dive into a listener question about where to geographically weight your investments and the idea of underweighting the US equity of your portfolio. This leads to a much bigger consideration of the research, which we try to breeze through, and in sum seems to lead us back to the idea of the non-predictability of markets. For our main subject, we share an extensive list of questions to ask yourself before even beginning any conversations with advisors, and using your answers to determine the kind of advisor you need. From there, we get into the questions you can ask the advisor and firms you approach in order to make sure you find the best fit for your needs. We talk about credentials, investment philosophies, firm policies, and everything in between, and we will be posting this full list on our community platform for your reference too. Stay tuned for today's Talking Sense card, and Bad Advice of the Week too, and make sure to tune in for the great guests we have lined up in the coming weeks.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

  • The positions that we are currently looking to fill here at the podcast! [0:05:48.2]
  • This week's book of the week: unpacking The Starfish and the Spider and its lessons on leadership. [0:09:53.1]
  • Looking at an interesting blog post about the power of systems over goals. [0:12:57.8]
  • A listener question dealing with underweighting US equity in comparison to emerging markets. [0:14:40.5]
  • Plotting trend lines and the inconsistent relationship between forecasts and outcomes. [0:23:02.4]
  • Adjusting the standard errors, when using overlapping data samples. [0:27:48.3]
  • Bootstrapped simulations for defining predictability and market timing. [0:29:20.2]
  • Good financial advice and how to make sure you find it. [0:32:02.8]
  • The three channels through which you can access advice; commission-based, asset-based fee advice, and fee-only. [0:33:30.2]
  • The conflict of interest that arises with us delivering our thoughts on this topic. [0:36:28.8]
  • Credentials and qualifications to look out for in Canada and abroad. [0:38:20.3]
  • Starting with what you want from an advisor and departing from clearly defined goals. [0:41:12.7]
  • Questions to ask yourself before selecting an advisor about your assets, self-management, and more. [0:45:22.8]
  • The conversations to have with your chosen type of advisor; services provided, compensation, and more. [0:48:55.2]
  • Getting to grips with the investment philosophy of an advisor and their firm. [0:54:50.1]
  • This week's Talking Sense segment: choosing between a lump sum or installments. [0:57:28.2]
  • Bad advice of the week and the seven reasons to own individually-managed portfolios of stocks. [0:58:14.6]

Today we are so happy to welcome the amazing Katy Milkman to the show. Katy is the author of the impressive and inspiring new book, How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be, and in this episode, we get the inside scoop from her about her work, with specific attention to how it can be applied to investment and finances. Emerging from an engineering background, Katy has a powerful and unique skillset to be tackling the social sciences, and we hear from her about how this path has impacted her thoughts on data quality and the areas she has chosen to research. Our guest shares some very interesting and sometimes surprising information on the idea of fresh starts, commitment devices, and ambitious goals, before we tackle the fascinating subjects of laziness and confidence in relation to our saving habits. Listeners can expect to come away with some renewed reasons for data-driven decisions as well as some new impetus to double down on healthy change. We cannot recommend Katy's book highly enough, so tune in to hear what she has to say and make sure to purchase this amazing read.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

  • Unpacking the idea of a 'fresh start' and the ideal times for this. [00:02:26.2]
  • Instances when fresh starts might be harmful instead of helpful. [00:07:28.1]
  • Better methods for adhering to goals around saving money. [00:12:04.6]
  • Commitment devices and how these can aid people in avoiding dipping into savings. [00:19:04.3]
  • The value of ambitious goals and the impacts of different kinds of goal setting. [00:22:13.7]
  • Using the power of a new identity in the process of goal setting around retirement savings. [00:26:00.8]
  • Katy's suggestions for taking responsibility for independent saving. [00:29:58.7]
  • Thoughts on laziness; utilizing this inherent tendency for our benefit. [00:31:43.6]
  • Katy's perspective on habit-forming; habit loops, consistency, and triggering certain behaviours through rewards. [00:35:40.6]
  • Decision-making and confidence; how much it matters and how to increase it. [00:42:11.4]
  • More productive conversations around advice, assistance, and expertise. [00:46:31.2]
  • The influence of community on our success; how determinant the people around us are. [00:49:38.6]
  • Considering the permanence or perpetual struggle of behavioural change. [00:52:20.6]
  • How accountability and the role of third parties can initiate meaningful change. [00:54:21.1]
  • Katy's concerns over data quality and how this has impacted the areas of her research. [00:55:24.9]
  • How Katy defines success in her life: leaving the world a better place and enjoyment. [00:56:49.8]

Today we get the chance to take some very interesting listener questions and dig into fascinating findings on day trading in 2020. To kick things off we have a quick review of Simon Sinek's insightful new book, The Infinite Game before rounding up some of the news from the investing space. Then it's time to tackle a number of questions from a member of our thriving community and break down some helpful responses to queries about bonds, retirement, convexity, different types of ETFs, and more. We were lucky enough to draw on some great wisdom within our network of advisors to help us answer these complex questions, so you will not want to miss the specifics that we dive into. From there, we dive into the main course of today's show, exploring the topic of day trading in 2020. With the rise of mobile trading on apps like Robinhood, there has been a spike in what some may call casual or free trading. We unpack some of the surprising and not-so-surprising findings on the impact of Robinhood's model, looking at the community's trend towards herding and how the smartphone platforms are changing the way people invest. The main conclusion here may not be a big surprise to any of our listeners, with the higher frequency of transactions leading to worse returns in the long run. For all this, plus some Talking Sense questions cards, and a whole lot more, listen in with us.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

  • This week's book review of The Infinite Game by Simon Sinek. [0:06:02.7]
  • News from the world of investing: Vanguard's latest move into indexing, and more. [0:10:30.8]
  • A series of listener questions dealing with bonds and retirement. [0:15:51.2]
  • An argument for federal government bonds when prioritizing liquidity. [0:18:26.7]
  • Understanding convexity and 'bullet' portfolios in this context. [0:20:36.7]
  • Ten-year treasury ETFs versus all duration ETFs. [0:23:52.4]
  • Weighing provincial bonds and their lack of liquidity against Canada's governmental bonds. [0:26:12.1]
  • Looking into what the research shows us about day trading during last year. [0:29:01.6]
  • Available data on Robinhood users and their general tendency to herd investments. [0:33:40.7]
  • The losses incurred by the Robinhood community during herding. [0:38:29.0]
  • Digging a little deeper on transaction costs and how this actually plays out at Robinhood. [0:44:20.1]
  • Market efficiency as it relates to these new ways of 'free' trading. [0:48:29.6]
  • Another round of Talking Sense cards; things to save and decision hindsight. [0:52:32.1]
  • Bad advice of the week courtesy of Canada's big banks. [0:59:18.6]

The work of Bill Schultheis has had a profound effect on us here at the Rational Reminder Podcast, and eventually having him join us on the show is truly an honour! Bill is the author of the Coffeehouse Investor series and is currently the Principal and Senior Advisor at Soundmark, in Kirkland, Washington. Throughout his career Bill has dedicated himself to helping his clients make the choices that best serve them and their particular needs, and his approach has continued to grow and improve over the decades he has been in the game. We have a wonderful conversation with Bill, charting his course from his early days on Wall Street, to writing his first book and starting Soundmark, to where is today. Bill gives us some great insider insight into the important concepts from his books and also talks about current issues in the financial world, like the impact of cryptocurrencies. Towards the end of our conversation, we get even more philosophical with our guest sharing some thoughts on what constitutes a 'rich life', and the importance of listening to your heart when it comes to your big decisions. So for this and much more from an inspiring and sensible voice, be sure to join us today!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

  • Bill's upbringing on a farm in Washington with a large family. [0:04:16.2]
  • The route that Bill took to publishing his first book as a way to share the wisdom of indexing. [0:06:40.7]
  • The beginnings of Soundmark and the first clients that Bill started helping. [0:10:13.4]
  • Bill's most recent book and the three ground rules it lays out for readers. [0:12:36.3]
  • Unpacking the 'coffeehouse investor' model portfolio. [0:18:20.7]
  • How Bill approaches and explains diversification to his clients. [0:21:54.7]
  • Thoughts on presenting data and challenging strongly held views from clients. [0:23:14.1]
  • The impact of cryptocurrencies and commission-free trading on indexing. [0:25:53.6]
  • Comparing the commonly held investing approaches of now and the 1990s. [0:29:01.0]
  • The approaches to wealth building that Bill recommends to younger people. [0:30:52.7]
  • How a persistent attitude served Bill when looking for a publisher for his book. [0:33:07.4]
  • The basic strengths and weaknesses of index funds. [0:34:56.3]
  • Bill's idea of a 'rich life' and what this means to him. [0:39:55.2]
  • How to 'dial in your power settings' with your financial planning and common mistakes to avoid. [0:41:19.2]
  • Listening to your heart and finding the financial and professional life that feels right. [0:44:52.7]
  • How dissatisfaction can lead to unhealthy spending habits! [0:48:37.5]
  • Bill's thoughts on the FIRE concept; pros and cons of adopting the philosophy. [0:50:31.4]
  • The impact that The Millionaire Next Door has had on Bill's life and work. [0:51:48.2]
  • How Bill defines success and the value he places on kindness. [0:52:51.7]

Welcome back to another episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast, where we give you the most considered and evidence-based information about investing in Canada. Our focus for this episode is the topic of tax loss harvesting, a subject we have touched on before but felt warranted a revisit, with some updates. To kick off the show, we review Playing to Win, looking at the illuminating perspective it offers with regards to strategy and preparation. From there we turn to some recent investing news on ETFs and Robinhood, before we get into the main course of today's show. There are plenty of pitches and arguments for why tax loss selling can be very rewarding, and while these are not necessarily false, there are certain ways in which the information can be misleading, or not comprehensive for all investors. We discuss how best to think about the supposed gains, noting the importance of high expected returns and the time frame in which a case study is made. We also think about some of the potentially negative results of letting tax drive your investment decisions, despite the seeming attractiveness of this route. One of the most important points here is the adjustment needed in order to apply these strategies to the Canadian market, as many of the pitches and research are based in the US system, which has significant differences when it comes to taxation. We highlight some red flags to look out for and give some more general warnings around rushing into investments that lean too heavily in this direction. So for all this and a bunch more great advice for your portfolio, join us for the show.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

  • This week's book review of Playing to Win by Roger Martin and A G Lafley. [0:08:43.3]
  • Continued increases for ETFs and comparing the statistics with recent history. [0:12:30.7]
  • Some amazing statistics about Robinhood users and cryptocurrency investments! [0:15:18.5]
  • A reintroduction to, and revisited analysis of, tax loss harvesting. [0:18:20.8]
  • The best times to consider tax loss selling; waiting for high expected returns. [0:27:55.5]
  • Recent findings on the tax alpha and modifying the arguments and assumptions. [0:33:20.5]
  • Creating a new base case to work from with some helpful adjustments. [0:38:41.3]
  • The importance of the time period when looking at historical returns for tax loss selling. [0:43:10.1]
  • Cases in which we believe tax loss selling makes the most sense. [0:46:14.3]
  • Looking at the tax implications of pooling funds with other investors. [0:49:02.7]
  • Locating these tax loss strategies within a specifically Canadian context. [0:52:18.5]
  • A couple Talking Sense cards dealing with leading and following, and protection. [0:55:25.5]
  • Bad advice of the week; looking at pensions in the UK. [0:58:03.5]

Today we welcome Rob Arnott to the show! Rob is the founder of Research Affiliates and is a prolific writer who has published hundreds of articles for many different journals. We know firsthand, the power of Rob's work, and how it can alter the way you think about investing, and this depth of knowledge, coupled with his ability to make complex topics understandable makes him a dream guest for us! Rob is the co-author of The Fundamental Index, and we get some insight into this subject along with many other groundbreaking areas he has worked on. We cannot stress enough the rarity of Rob's gift for getting difficult ideas across in a deliberate and approachable way, and this is apparent through this illuminating conversation. For us, it was quite surreal to speak to someone so influential, and listeners can expect to come away with a greater understanding of 'smart-beta', intangible assets, forecasting, and some insight into the interesting areas of earnings dilution and 'the big market delusion', before Rob shares some very surprising information on factor momentum at the end of our chat. So for this and a whole lot more, in a truly stand-out episode, be sure to listen in!

 

Key Points From This Episode:

  • Rob's perspective on the drawbacks of cap-weighted indexing. [0:02:47.2]
  • Getting to grips with 'smart-beta' and its links to RAFI. [0:06:21.6]
  • Building a fundamental index and what the weights are based on. [0:11:17.4]
  • Misconceptions of the value of backtesting when making investment decisions. [0:13:43.3]
  • The prevalence of extreme factor-drawdowns for investments. [0:17:22.7]
  • Weighing the importance of intangible assets and what to trust in this regard. [0:23:32.8]
  • Value stocks in the current drawdown; value's relative cheapening over recent years. [0:25:53.8]
  • Stories about the inner workings of a company and how this can vary in importance. [0:28:41.5]
  • Unpacking 'the big market delusion' and the paper that Rob co-authored on the subject. [0:33:33.2]
  • Rob's work on earnings dilution and how it relates to bubble-formation. [0:37:00.9]
  • How the findings on earnings dilution impact strategies towards disruptive industries. [0:40:19.9]
  • Forecasting the expected returns of a factor portfolio and utilizing Research Affiliates website! [0:44:03.0]
  • The possibility of adding value through timing exposure to factors. [0:47:26.7]
  • The truth about momentum in historical back-tests in the last few decades. [0:49:12.8]
  • Rob explains the real costs of trading! [0:55:42.7]
  • Momentum's primary existence in factors, ahead of individual stocks and sectors. [0:58:44.8]
  • How Rob currently defines success in his life. [1:07:38.7]

The looming issue of climate change has far-reaching implications, not least of which are relevant to the financial and investment world. Today we spend some time considering these impacts, with a focus on the question of whether climate risk is a priced investment. The short answer, conferred by the numerous academic explorations into the subject, is yes. This answer, however, still leaves investors with many options and contrasting possible approaches as to how to act. We get into some of the different avenues to explore when considering your best route, taking into account both ethical constraints and returns, as well as a long-term vision of sustainability. We also talk about why big companies with less of a focus on ethics may be tempted to go green for financial reasons, how investors might enact a moral stance by investing in fewer green companies, and many more surprising possibilities that arise out of the current findings. Rounding out all this serious discussion, we squeeze in an interesting book review from Hans Rosling, some Talking Sense questions, and of course, bad advice of the week, all of which you are not going to want to miss.

 

Key Points From This Episode:

  • This week's book review, looking at Hans Rosling's Factfulness. [0:08:09.2]
  • Recent financial and investment news; penalties, TFSAs, and a big shift from Wealthfront. [0:14:36.7]
  • The question of climate change and markets connected to the use of fossil fuels. [0:19:04.5]
  • Expected rate of returns in relation to the costs of capital, and the idea of climate hedging. [0:26:46.2]
  • Looking at empirical evidence on the pricing of climate risk. [0:28:40.1]
  • Recent scholarly findings on the subject of whether climate risk is priced. [0:31:50.3]
  • Summing up the academic arguments for why and how pricing of climate risks operates. [0:38:35.7]
  • The cost of capital incentives for companies to reduce their exposure to climate risk. [0:40:19.3]
  • Participating in the transition of companies to greener and more sustainable practices by investing in them. [0:45:12.9]
  • Financial needs for different age groups, at the beginning and the end of a lifetime. [0:48:17.6]
  • Personal savings goals versus generosity towards loved ones. [0:51:47.2]
  • This week's Bad Advice of the Week: making inflation trades in cryptocurrencies and gold. [0:53:27.1]

One of the major topics we hope to help our listeners with is retirement planning, and today we have a really informative and illuminating conversation with a true expert in the field, Don Ezra. His approach is typified by his focus on retirement and happiness, and their important intersection, subjects he has broached in his many published books, notably Life Two, and Happiness. Don is a self-professed financial nerd, so you know that he will fit right in on this podcast! His advice is relatable and easy to understand, a result of working on his own retirement along the way. Don is an actuary by trade and helped establish Russell Investments Canada in 1984, through which he worked on many huge pension funds across the world, endowing him with amazing expertise in the space. In our conversation, Don gives us such a wide-ranging view of his approach, and the amazing conglomeration of ideas he has amassed on the subject of better retirement, or as he likes to call it, graduation from full-time employment! He breaks things down in easy and catchy ways, giving us some fundamental questions that can help initially guide the retiree, around purpose, action, and money. From there he talks about the seven asset classes of your life's abundance portfolio, needs versus wants, and even finds a spot to comment on the strengths and weakness of the FIRE philosophy. So for all this and much more, join us on the Rational Reminder today! 

 

Key Points From This Episode:

  • Don's feelings around the time of his retirement from such a successful career! [0:02:10.4]
  • The common feeling of discombobulation around retirement and Don's thoughts on addressing it. [0:03:41.2]
  • Questions people should be asking and answering as they approach retirement. [0:06:45.8]
  • Safety, growth, longevity; the three things we need for our finances in retirement. [0:08:49.7]
  • Don explains the sequence of returns and some misconceptions about averages. [0:10:21.1]
  • Weighing the uncertainty of life expectancy against that of random stock returns. [0:12:24.8]
  • Better ways to calculate life expectancy for individuals and couples. [0:15:15.7]
  • Don's advice to the average person looking to build a diversified portfolio for retirement. [0:16:54.1]
  • How Don has approached his own portfolio and generating retirement income. [0:21:10.8]
  • The importance of flexibility and adjusting a retirement budget over time. [0:23:48.7]
  • When retirees should be seriously considering annuities. [0:25:52.1]
  • The dimension that inflation adds to these questions for people in retirement. [0:27:49.4]
  • Assumptions that Don uses for his life expectancy planning. [0:34:06.1]
  • Calculating what is needed against what you have; Don explains the personal funded ratio! [0:36:33.7]
  • Lessons that Don learned during his work with huge pension funds before retirement.[0:38:35.4]
  • The question of filling one's time in retirement; staying busy and maintaining purpose. [0:41:29.5]
  • Don breaks down the seven asset classes of your life's abundance portfolio. [0:45:22.1]
  • A look at the different parts of the FIRE movement and its success and failures. [0:48:38.5]
  • A few approaches to challenge below-average advice from any expert. [0:50:42.1]
  • Fostering healthy ambitions and dreams for the years of your retirement. [0:55:24.5]
  • Better conversations with family around money, inheritance, and financial planning. [0:57:21.2]
  • The emotional legacy that Don views as the success of his life! [1:01:16.8]

Welcome back to another episode of the sensible money show. The focus this week is the age-old question of housing; whether to buy or to rent. After our preliminary remarks, book review, and a new TV recommendation, we get down to brass tacks on the important things to look at when assessing your living situation. There are some commonly held views on the expenses and sacrifices associated with real estate, and we do our best to share some of the facts as they stand. We get into some meaningful ways to truly compare the costs of each option, looking at the financial aspects, risk, quality of life, and related psychological elements to the debate. The truth is that there will be costs associated with each, but that they may not always lie where you think they do! For instance, it is commonly believed that it is less risky to own than to rent, however, the evid